NASDAQ$TSLA

Tesla Motors, Inc. · Q4 2023 earnings

Q4 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Tesla's Q4 2023 results showcased revenue growth, profitability impacted by pricing and increased expenses, and strong cash flow.

Tesla's Q4 2023 saw a 3% YoY revenue increase to $25.2B. GAAP net income was $7.9B, including a one-time non-cash tax benefit of $5.9B. Operating income decreased to $2.1B, resulting in an 8.2% operating margin. Free cash flow was $2.1B, and cash and investments increased to $29.1B.

  • Total revenue grew 3% YoY in Q4 to $25.2B.
  • GAAP net income reached $7.9B in Q4, influenced by a $5.9B non-cash tax benefit.
  • Operating income decreased YoY to $2.1B with an 8.2% operating margin.
  • Cash, cash equivalents, and investments increased to $29.1B, driven by free cash flow and financing activities.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$25.2B

Previous: $24.3B+3.5%
EPS (adj)

$0.71

Previous: $1.19-40.3%
Gross Margin

17.6%

No prior period
Operating Margin

8.2%

No prior period
Operating Cash Flow

$4.37B

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

$2.31B

No prior period
Net Income

$7.93B

Previous: $3.71B+113.5%
Operating Income

$2.06B

Previous: $0.00
Gross Profit

$4.44B

Previous: $5.78B-23.2%
R&D Expense

$1.09B

No prior period
Stock-Based Comp

$484M

Previous: $419M+15.5%

Revenue & EPS history

Tesla · Revenue · Quarterly

$25.2B

Q4 2023+3.5%vs Q4 2022
Beat estimate in 9 of 15 quarters(60%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Tesla · $23.4B total across 5 segments · Q3 2023

  • Automotive Sales
    $18.6B
  • Services & Other
    $2.17B
  • Energy & Storage
    $1.56B
  • Regulatory Credits
    $554M
  • Automotive Leasing
    $489M

Forward guidance

Tesla is currently between two major growth waves and anticipates vehicle volume growth rate to be notably lower in 2024 as teams focus on the next-generation vehicle launch. The company expects the Energy Storage business to outpace the Automotive business in growth rate of deployments and revenue in 2024. Tesla has sufficient liquidity and will maintain a strong balance sheet. Hardware-related profits are expected to be accompanied by an acceleration of AI, software, and fleet-based profits over time. Cybertruck production and deliveries will ramp throughout the year, and progress continues on the next generation platform.

Tailwinds

  • Sufficient liquidity to fund product roadmap and capacity expansion.
  • Energy Storage business growth to outpace Automotive business in 2024.
  • Acceleration of AI, software, and fleet-based profits expected.
  • Cybertruck production and deliveries will ramp throughout the year.
  • Continued progress on the next generation platform.

Headwinds

  • Vehicle volume growth rate may be notably lower in 2024.
  • Teams focused on the launch of the next-generation vehicle at Gigafactory Texas.
  • Uncertain period requiring management of the business to maintain a strong balance sheet.
  • Downward pressure on solar demand continued into Q4 as interest rates have remained high.
  • Energy storage deployments decreased sequentially in Q4.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2023

Historical avgQ4 2023

+0.1%

Avg return

Earnings day

+2.3%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.5%

Avg return

30 days after

56%

36 / 64 earnings

Positive

+25.1%

Q1 2013

Best reaction

-14.1%

Q2 2024

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q4 2025-5.9%-3.0%+10.0%
Q1 2026+0.5%-3.0%+10.0%
Q3 2025+3.6%+4.9%-10.9%
Q2 2025-8.2%-3.4%+2.2%
Q1 2025+5.4%+20.1%+42.6%
Q4 2024+2.9%+0.8%-24.7%
Q3 2024+19.5%+20.4%+61.7%
Q2 2024-14.1%-12.6%-16.2%
Q1 2024+14.1%+18.5%+22.3%
Q4 2023-12.7%-8.7%-8.2%
Q3 2023-13.6%-16.8%-8.1%
Q2 2023-10.4%-8.3%-26.5%
Q1 2023-11.6%-11.8%-2.3%
Q4 2022+11.4%+15.8%+36.8%
Q3 2022-5.9%-4.1%-18.2%
Q2 2022+10.7%+9.3%+20.8%
Q1 2022-1.9%-2.9%-35.4%
Q4 2021-9.7%+2.0%-11.8%
Q3 2021+3.4%+18.6%+31.6%
Q2 2021+0.2%+6.8%+10.5%
Q1 2021-3.4%-2.7%-15.1%
Q4 2020-5.4%-4.9%-23.5%
Q3 2020+0.9%-0.4%+16.0%
Q2 2020-3.5%-1.8%+30.7%
Q1 2020+1.7%-1.0%+8.6%
Q4 2019+13.0%+37.6%+17.8%
Q3 2019+17.3%+28.2%+30.3%
Q2 2019-12.1%-9.4%-18.7%
Q1 2019-6.1%-8.5%-27.8%
Q4 2018+3.2%+5.2%-0.9%
Q3 2018+7.0%+13.8%+10.8%
Q2 2018+17.2%+14.7%+1.2%
Q1 2018-5.2%+1.0%-2.7%
Q4 2017-5.6%-5.5%-2.0%
Q3 2017-9.7%-8.7%-7.5%
Q2 2017+8.6%+11.1%+11.2%
Q1 2017-7.3%-3.7%+6.6%
Q4 2016-7.7%-11.2%-5.1%
Q3 2016+0.8%-2.3%-2.8%
Q2 2016+1.5%-0.5%-12.9%
Q1 2016-9.0%
Q4 2015+1.5%
Q3 2015+8.4%
Q2 2015-7.5%
Q1 2015+1.7%
Q4 2014-6.2%
Q3 2014+0.9%
Q2 2014+1.9%
Q1 2014-13.8%
Q4 2013+3.1%
Q3 2013-13.7%
Q2 2013+7.9%
Q1 2013+25.1%
Q4 2012+2.0%
Q3 2012+0.5%
Q2 2012+4.0%
Q1 2012-1.6%
Q4 2011-1.6%
Q3 2011+0.9%
Q2 2011+3.6%
Q1 2011-3.8%
Q4 2010+3.7%
Q3 2010+9.6%
Q2 2010+6.8%
Q1 2010

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