NASDAQ$TSLA

Tesla Motors, Inc. · Q4 2019 earnings

Q4 2019 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Tesla demonstrated strong organic demand for Model 3, returned to GAAP profitability in 2H19, and generated $1.1B of free cash flow for the year.

Tesla's Q4 2019 saw a $930M increase in cash and cash equivalents, reaching $6.3B, and a $1.0B free cash flow. The company achieved a GAAP operating income of $359M with a 4.9% operating margin and a GAAP net income of $105M. Model Y production ramp started ahead of schedule, and vehicle deliveries hit a record of 112,095.

  • $930M increase in cash and cash equivalents to $6.3B in Q4.
  • $1.0B operating cash flow less capex in Q4.
  • Model Y production ramp started in January 2020, ahead of schedule.
  • Record vehicle deliveries of 112,095 in Q4.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$7.38B

Previous: $7.23B+2.2%
EPS (adj)

$0.14

Previous: $0.13+7.7%
Gross Margin

18.8%

No prior period
Operating Margin

4.9%

No prior period
Operating Cash Flow

$1.43B

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

$412M

No prior period
Free Cash Flow

$1.01B

Previous: $910M+11.4%
Net Income

$105M

Previous: $139M-24.7%
Operating Income

$359M

Previous: $414M-13.2%
Gross Profit

$1.39B

Previous: $1.44B-3.6%
Cash & Equivalents

$6.27B

Previous: $3.69B+70.0%
Total Assets

$34.3B

Previous: $29.7B+15.4%
Stock-Based Comp

$281M

Previous: $205M+36.9%

Revenue & EPS history

Tesla · Revenue · Quarterly

$7.38B

Q4 2019+2.2%vs Q4 2018
Beat estimate in 12 of 16 quarters(75%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Tesla · $7.52B total across 5 segments · Q4 2019

  • Automotive Sales
    $6.14B
  • Services & Other
    $580M
  • Energy & Storage
    $436M
  • Automotive Leasing
    $225M
  • Regulatory Credits
    $133M

Forward guidance

Tesla anticipates that vehicle deliveries should comfortably exceed 500,000 units for the full year 2020. Positive quarterly free cash flow and GAAP net income are expected going forward, with possible temporary exceptions during new product launches.

Tailwinds

  • Vehicle deliveries should comfortably exceed 500,000 units in 2020.
  • Model 3 production in Shanghai is continuing to ramp.
  • Model Y production in Fremont has begun, ahead of schedule.
  • Both solar and storage deployments should grow at least 50% in 2020.
  • Positive quarterly free cash flow is expected going forward.

Headwinds

  • Production will likely outpace deliveries this year.
  • Temporary exceptions to positive free cash flow are possible around new product launches.
  • Temporary exceptions to positive GAAP net income are possible around new product launches.
  • Continuous volume growth, capacity expansion, and cash generation remain the main focus.
  • No specific negative information provided in the outlook.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2019

Historical avgQ4 2019

+0.1%

Avg return

Earnings day

+2.3%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.5%

Avg return

30 days after

56%

36 / 64 earnings

Positive

+25.1%

Q1 2013

Best reaction

-14.1%

Q2 2024

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q4 2025-5.9%-3.0%+10.0%
Q1 2026+0.5%-3.0%+10.0%
Q3 2025+3.6%+4.9%-10.9%
Q2 2025-8.2%-3.4%+2.2%
Q1 2025+5.4%+20.1%+42.6%
Q4 2024+2.9%+0.8%-24.7%
Q3 2024+19.5%+20.4%+61.7%
Q2 2024-14.1%-12.6%-16.2%
Q1 2024+14.1%+18.5%+22.3%
Q4 2023-12.7%-8.7%-8.2%
Q3 2023-13.6%-16.8%-8.1%
Q2 2023-10.4%-8.3%-26.5%
Q1 2023-11.6%-11.8%-2.3%
Q4 2022+11.4%+15.8%+36.8%
Q3 2022-5.9%-4.1%-18.2%
Q2 2022+10.7%+9.3%+20.8%
Q1 2022-1.9%-2.9%-35.4%
Q4 2021-9.7%+2.0%-11.8%
Q3 2021+3.4%+18.6%+31.6%
Q2 2021+0.2%+6.8%+10.5%
Q1 2021-3.4%-2.7%-15.1%
Q4 2020-5.4%-4.9%-23.5%
Q3 2020+0.9%-0.4%+16.0%
Q2 2020-3.5%-1.8%+30.7%
Q1 2020+1.7%-1.0%+8.6%
Q4 2019+13.0%+37.6%+17.8%
Q3 2019+17.3%+28.2%+30.3%
Q2 2019-12.1%-9.4%-18.7%
Q1 2019-6.1%-8.5%-27.8%
Q4 2018+3.2%+5.2%-0.9%
Q3 2018+7.0%+13.8%+10.8%
Q2 2018+17.2%+14.7%+1.2%
Q1 2018-5.2%+1.0%-2.7%
Q4 2017-5.6%-5.5%-2.0%
Q3 2017-9.7%-8.7%-7.5%
Q2 2017+8.6%+11.1%+11.2%
Q1 2017-7.3%-3.7%+6.6%
Q4 2016-7.7%-11.2%-5.1%
Q3 2016+0.8%-2.3%-2.8%
Q2 2016+1.5%-0.5%-12.9%
Q1 2016-9.0%
Q4 2015+1.5%
Q3 2015+8.4%
Q2 2015-7.5%
Q1 2015+1.7%
Q4 2014-6.2%
Q3 2014+0.9%
Q2 2014+1.9%
Q1 2014-13.8%
Q4 2013+3.1%
Q3 2013-13.7%
Q2 2013+7.9%
Q1 2013+25.1%
Q4 2012+2.0%
Q3 2012+0.5%
Q2 2012+4.0%
Q1 2012-1.6%
Q4 2011-1.6%
Q3 2011+0.9%
Q2 2011+3.6%
Q1 2011-3.8%
Q4 2010+3.7%
Q3 2010+9.6%
Q2 2010+6.8%
Q1 2010

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