NASDAQ$SAGE

Sage Therapeutics Inc · Q3 2023 earnings

Q3 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Sage reported third quarter 2023 financial results and highlighted pipeline and business progress.

Sage Therapeutics announced the upcoming commercial launch of ZURZUVAE for postpartum depression, and reported a strong financial foundation with $876 million in cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities as of September 30, 2023. Net revenue from sales of ZULRESSO was $2.7 million. The company expects operations to be supported into 2026, and annualized net savings of approximately $240 million from strategic reorganization.

  • ZURZUVAE approved for adults with PPD and designated Schedule IV by the DEA.
  • Expected wholesale acquisition cost of ZURZUVAE is $15,900.
  • SAGE-718 granted FDA Orphan Drug Designation for Huntington’s Disease.
  • Cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities totaled $876 million as of September 30, 2023.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$2.72M

Previous: $1.74M+56.2%
EPS (adj)

-$3.37

Previous: -$2.31-45.9%
Capital Expenditures

-$328K

Previous: $364K-190.1%
Free Cash Flow

-$140M

Previous: -$119M-17.1%
Net Income

-$202M

Previous: -$137M-46.8%
Operating Income

-$212M

Previous: -$141M-49.7%
Gross Profit

$1.81M

Previous: $1.56M+16.5%
Cash & Equivalents

$876M

Previous: $1.4B-37.4%
Total Assets

$950M

Previous: $1.49B-36.1%
R&D Expense

$102M

No prior period
Stock-Based Comp

$28.7M

Previous: $13.2M+117.9%

Revenue & EPS history

Sage · Revenue · Quarterly

$2.72M

Q3 2023+56.2%vs Q3 2022
Beat estimate in 6 of 15 quarters(40%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Sage · $1.64M total across 1 segment · Q4 2021

  • ZULRESSO Net Revenue
    $1.64M

Forward guidance

Sage expects that its current cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities, along with anticipated funding from collaborations, collaboration revenue from sales of ZURZUVAE, and a potential milestone payment of $75.0 million from Biogen for the first commercial sale of ZURZUVAE for the treatment of women with PPD, will support operations into 2026. The company expects annualized net savings of approximately $240 million, of which 60% is related to R&D.

Tailwinds

  • Commercial availability of ZURZUVAE in December 2023.
  • Broader complement of commercialization capabilities for ZURZUVAE in early 2024.
  • Progress recruitment in the ongoing DIMENSION, SURVEYOR, PURVIEW, PRECEDENT and LIGHTWAVE Studies
  • Targeted completion of enrollment in the Phase 2b KINETIC 2 Study
  • Potential milestone payment of $75.0 million from Biogen

Headwinds

  • Launch and commercialization efforts may not be successful.
  • The number of women with PPD, the unmet need for additional treatment options, and the potential market for ZURZUVAE in women with PPD, may be significantly smaller than expected.
  • ZURZUVAE may not achieve the clinical benefit, clinical use or market acceptance in the treatment of PPD expected.
  • Delays in clinical trials may impact ability to meet expected timelines and may increase costs.
  • Success in earlier clinical trials of any product candidates may not be repeated or observed in ongoing or future studies.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 15 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2023

Historical avgQ3 2023

-2.8%

Avg return

Earnings day

-5.3%

Avg return

5 days after

-6.4%

Avg return

30 days after

43%

19 / 44 earnings

Positive

+12.4%

Q4 2021

Best reaction

-47.6%

Q2 2023

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q4 2025
Q3 2025
Q2 2025
Q1 2025-4.1%-5.7%-15.0%
Q4 2024-0.4%-0.8%+7.2%
Q3 2024-24.6%-29.1%-35.2%
Q2 2024-9.6%-17.2%-22.1%
Q1 2024-2.2%-0.6%-19.4%
Q4 2023+10.4%+1.3%-13.2%
Q3 2023-10.2%-17.1%+1.3%
Q2 2023-47.6%-39.7%-42.8%
Q1 2023-2.4%+0.9%+1.9%
Q4 2022+0.9%-5.2%-5.2%
Q3 2022-5.0%+5.0%+16.5%
Q2 2022+4.6%+21.6%+12.8%
Q1 2022+4.9%-12.2%+12.6%
Q4 2021+12.4%+12.3%-1.0%
Q3 2021+11.2%+6.4%-9.7%
Q2 2021-4.0%-5.1%+9.0%
Q1 2021-10.3%
Q4 2020+4.0%
Q3 2020-0.6%
Q2 2020+1.3%
Q1 2020-4.1%
Q4 2019-26.2%
Q3 2019-0.2%
Q2 2019+7.4%
Q1 2019+0.3%
Q4 2018-8.2%
Q3 2018+3.0%
Q2 2018-0.7%
Q1 2018+1.2%
Q4 2017+0.2%
Q3 2017+11.7%
Q2 2017+7.7%
Q1 2017-2.7%
Q4 2016+0.6%
Q3 2016+0.5%
Q2 2016-13.3%
Q1 2016-3.8%
Q4 2015-4.8%
Q3 2015-4.6%
Q2 2015-6.5%
Q1 2015+2.0%
Q4 2014+2.1%
Q3 2014-5.2%
Q2 2014-7.8%
Q4 2013
Q3 2013
Q2 2013
Q1 2013

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