NASDAQ$PRCH

Porch Group Inc. · Q1 2023 earnings

Q1 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Porch Group reported Q1 2023 results with revenue increasing 37% year-over-year.

Porch Group reported first-quarter revenue of $87.4 million, a 37% increase compared to the previous year. The company faced challenges in the reinsurance market, impacting revenue less cost of revenue and GAAP net loss. Despite these challenges, Porch Group is focused on key operational successes and anticipates Adjusted EBITDA profitability in the second half of the year.

  • Total revenue increased by 37% to $87.4 million compared to Q1 2022.
  • Filed an application with the Texas Department of Insurance to form the Porch Insurance Reciprocal Exchange.
  • Successfully launched Porch Warranty product with differentiated protection and services for consumers and across multiple channels.
  • Insurance gross written premium for the quarter was $115 million with approximately 376 thousand policies.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$87.4M

Previous: $62.6M+39.7%
EPS (adj)

-$0.39

Previous: -$0.06-550.0%
Reciprocal Written Premium

$115M

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

-$356K

Previous: -$1.17M+69.5%
Free Cash Flow

-$39.1M

Previous: -$6.96M-461.5%
Net Income

-$38.7M

Previous: -$5.8M-568.4%
Operating Income

-$38.5M

Previous: -$25.3M-52.3%
Gross Profit

$36.1M

Previous: $41.4M-12.8%
Cash & Equivalents

$179M

Previous: $292M-38.7%
Total Assets

$1.02B

Previous: $1.04B-1.9%
Stock-Based Comp

$6.89M

Previous: $5.85M+17.8%

Revenue & EPS history

Porch · Revenue · Quarterly

$87.4M

Q1 2023+39.7%vs Q1 2022
Beat estimate in 9 of 15 quarters(60%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

Porch Group reaffirms its full-year 2023 guidance, anticipating revenue between $330M and $350M, and projects positive Adjusted EBITDA profitability in the second half of 2023.

Tailwinds

  • Strong revenue growth in Insurance is expected.
  • Relatively flat YoY growth is projected for Vertical Software.
  • Focus on carefully managing costs.
  • Expect positive Adjusted EBITDA profitability in the second half of 2023 and beyond.
  • 2023 gross written premium expected to be around $500M.

Headwinds

  • Additional weather exposure in the first half of the year could lead to higher claims volumes.
  • Catastrophic weather conditions in excess of historic norms could create downside to the lower end of the revenue range.
  • If the Gross Loss Ratio for 2023 is worse than the assumption of 62%, results could be worse than the provided range.
  • If the housing market declines more than the assumption of 18%, results could be worse than the provided range.
  • A loss is expected in the first half of 2023 before higher risk policies are non-renewed and before the existing insurance premium per policy increases have taken full effect.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2023

Historical avgQ1 2023

+8.3%

Avg return

Earnings day

+11.8%

Avg return

5 days after

+18.4%

Avg return

30 days after

67%

16 / 24 earnings

Positive

+74.1%

Q4 2024

Best reaction

-36.5%

Q3 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-0.4%+20.7%+21.3%
Q3 2025+1.0%-4.3%-11.9%
Q1 2025+67.4%+67.0%+71.3%
Q4 2024+74.1%+82.6%+95.0%
Q3 2024+58.8%+47.8%+141.7%
Q2 2024-32.4%-26.0%-26.0%
Q1 2024+4.3%-14.8%-41.2%
Q4 2023+22.0%+26.3%+44.7%
Q3 2023+37.4%+50.7%+211.6%
Q2 2023-9.5%-12.7%-36.3%
Q1 2023+26.8%+22.4%+37.6%
Q4 2022-25.5%-32.6%-27.2%
Q3 2022-36.5%-31.5%+18.8%
Q2 2022+9.9%+21.8%-3.1%
Q1 2022+2.0%+30.3%-2.0%
Q4 2021-20.9%+15.8%-19.9%
Q3 2021+8.0%+2.9%-29.8%
Q2 2021-9.9%-17.1%-0.2%
Q1 2021+6.5%+16.3%+20.8%
Q2 2020+7.3%+5.0%-20.7%
Q4 2020+5.2%+7.0%-20.5%
Q3 2020+0.9%+0.2%+11.3%
Q1 2020+0.0%+0.0%-0.6%
Q4 2019+1.5%+4.2%+6.4%
Q3 2019
Q2 2019
Q1 2019

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