NASDAQ$PRCH

Porch Group Inc. · Q3 2023 earnings

Q3 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Porch Group reported positive Adjusted EBITDA and revenue growth, driven by the Insurance segment.

Porch Group reported a 67% increase in total revenue to $129.6 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $8.8 million for Q3 2023. The company is focused on ongoing profitability through underwriting actions, software module launches, and cost reduction initiatives.

  • Total revenue increased by 67% to $129.6 million.
  • GAAP net loss improved to $(5.7) million compared to $(84.5) million in the prior year.
  • Adjusted EBITDA reached $8.8 million, a significant increase from the prior year's loss of $(10.9) million.
  • The company had $458.4 million in unrestricted cash plus investments at the end of the quarter.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$130M

Previous: $75.4M+71.9%
EPS (adj)

-$0.06

Previous: -$0.30+80.0%
Reciprocal Written Premium

$154M

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

-$776K

Previous: -$1.99M+60.9%
Free Cash Flow

-$6.52M

Previous: -$88.4M+92.6%
Net Income

-$5.74M

Previous: -$86.4M+93.4%
Operating Income

$199K

Previous: -$84.9M+100.2%
Gross Profit

$76.6M

Previous: $42.1M+81.9%
Cash & Equivalents

$343M

Previous: $260M+31.8%
Total Assets

$967M

Previous: $1.07B-9.8%
R&D Expense

$14.4M

No prior period
Stock-Based Comp

$6.98M

Previous: $5.09M+37.1%

Revenue & EPS history

Porch · Revenue · Quarterly

$130M

Q3 2023+71.9%vs Q3 2022
Beat estimate in 9 of 15 quarters(60%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

Porch Group increased its full year 2023 guidance, expecting revenue of ~$415 million, revenue less cost of revenue of ~$190 million, and Adjusted EBITDA of ~$(52) million. Gross Written Premium is expected to be ~$500 million.

Tailwinds

  • Revenue ~$415m
  • ~50% YoY growth
  • Revenue Less Cost of Revenue ~$190m
  • Adj. EBITDA1 ~$(52)m
  • 2023 Gross Written Premium2 ~$500m

Headwinds

  • Assumes cat weather in Q4 is in line with historic trends with a 35% gross loss ratio
  • This would be higher than the $110 5-year average
  • Catastrophic weather events in excess of historic trends occurring in the fourth quarter of the year are excluded from guidance and from this target.
  • Adjusted EBITDA is a non-GAAP measure.
  • Porch Group is not providing reconciliations of expected Adjusted EBITDA (loss) for future periods to the most directly comparable measures prepared in accordance with GAAP

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2023

Historical avgQ3 2023

+8.3%

Avg return

Earnings day

+11.8%

Avg return

5 days after

+18.4%

Avg return

30 days after

67%

16 / 24 earnings

Positive

+74.1%

Q4 2024

Best reaction

-36.5%

Q3 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-0.4%+20.7%+21.3%
Q3 2025+1.0%-4.3%-11.9%
Q1 2025+67.4%+67.0%+71.3%
Q4 2024+74.1%+82.6%+95.0%
Q3 2024+58.8%+47.8%+141.7%
Q2 2024-32.4%-26.0%-26.0%
Q1 2024+4.3%-14.8%-41.2%
Q4 2023+22.0%+26.3%+44.7%
Q3 2023+37.4%+50.7%+211.6%
Q2 2023-9.5%-12.7%-36.3%
Q1 2023+26.8%+22.4%+37.6%
Q4 2022-25.5%-32.6%-27.2%
Q3 2022-36.5%-31.5%+18.8%
Q2 2022+9.9%+21.8%-3.1%
Q1 2022+2.0%+30.3%-2.0%
Q4 2021-20.9%+15.8%-19.9%
Q3 2021+8.0%+2.9%-29.8%
Q2 2021-9.9%-17.1%-0.2%
Q1 2021+6.5%+16.3%+20.8%
Q2 2020+7.3%+5.0%-20.7%
Q4 2020+5.2%+7.0%-20.5%
Q3 2020+0.9%+0.2%+11.3%
Q1 2020+0.0%+0.0%-0.6%
Q4 2019+1.5%+4.2%+6.4%
Q3 2019
Q2 2019
Q1 2019

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