NASDAQ$PGY

Pagaya Technologies Ltd · Q2 2024 earnings

Q2 2024 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Pagaya achieved record total revenue, FRLPC, and adjusted EBITDA, leading to an increased full-year outlook.

Pagaya reported record financial results for Q2 2024, driven by a 28% year-over-year increase in total revenue and other income to $250 million. The company expanded its network with top lenders, enhanced funding capacity, and achieved a record adjusted EBITDA of $50 million. GAAP operating income was $5 million, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of positive GAAP operating income.

  • Network volume grew by 19% year-over-year to $2.3 billion.
  • Total revenue and other income increased by 28% year-over-year to $250 million.
  • Revenue from fees less production costs (FRLPC) increased by 49% year-over-year to $97 million.
  • Adjusted EBITDA reached a record $50 million, compared to $17 million in the second quarter of 2023.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$250M

Previous: $196M+28.0%
EPS

-$1.04

Previous: -$0.04-2500.0%
Network Volume

$2.3B

No prior period
FRLPC

$97M

Previous: $65.1M+49.1%
FRLPC Margin

4.2%

No prior period
Adjusted EBITDA

$50.3M

No prior period
Adjusted Net Income

$7.19M

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

-$9.53M

Previous: $4.97M-291.6%
Free Cash Flow

-$84.3M

Previous: -$6.81M-1138.0%
Net Income

-$74.8M

Previous: -$21.8M-243.8%
Operating Income

$5.03M

Previous: $162K+3003.1%
Gross Profit

$105M

Previous: $72.7M+44.2%
Cash & Equivalents

$234M

Previous: $304M-23.2%
Total Assets

$1.45B

Previous: $1.19B+22.4%
R&D Expense

$21.9M

No prior period
Stock-Based Comp

$18M

Previous: $20.2M-10.7%

Revenue & EPS history

Pagaya · Revenue · Quarterly

$250M

Q2 2024+28%vs Q2 2023
Beat estimate in 8 of 13 quarters(62%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

For the third quarter of 2024, Pagaya expects network volume between $2.3 billion and $2.5 billion, total revenue and other income between $250 million and $260 million, and adjusted EBITDA between $50 million and $60 million.

Tailwinds

  • Network Volume Expected to be between $2.3 billion and $2.5 billion
  • Total Revenue and Other Income Expected to be between $250 million and $260 million
  • Adjusted EBITDA Expected to be between $50 million and $60 million
  • Network Volume Expected to be between $9.25 billion and $10.25 billion
  • Total Revenue and Other Income Expected to be between $975 million and $1,050 million

Headwinds

  • The Company cannot reconcile its expected Adjusted EBITDA to expected Net Loss Attributable to Pagaya under “Full-Year 2024 Financial Outlook” without unreasonable effort because certain items that impact net income (loss) and other reconciling items are out of the Company's control and/or cannot be reasonably predicted at this time, which unavailable information could have a significant impact on the Company’s U.S. GAAP financial results.
  • Changes in the political, legal and regulatory framework for AI technology, machine learning, financial institutions and consumer protection
  • The financial performance of its partners, and fluctuations in the U.S. consumer credit and housing market
  • Seasonal fluctuations in our revenue as a result of consumer spending and saving patterns
  • Pending and future litigation, regulatory actions and/or compliance issues including with respect to the merger with EJF Acquisition Corp.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q2 2024

Historical avgQ2 2024

-0.4%

Avg return

Earnings day

-2.8%

Avg return

5 days after

-8.5%

Avg return

30 days after

45%

9 / 20 earnings

Positive

+24.3%

Q4 2024

Best reaction

-39.7%

Q3 2024

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+3.3%-8.9%-1.8%
Q4 2025-23.9%-33.3%-38.4%
Q3 2025+12.7%-2.2%+1.0%
Q1 2025-2.4%+33.6%+52.4%
Q4 2024+24.3%+43.9%-10.4%
Q3 2024-39.7%-47.8%-43.9%
Q2 2024-21.5%-18.8%-18.7%
Q1 2024+20.8%+16.8%+17.6%
Q4 2023+15.4%+15.4%-34.4%
Q3 2023+9.3%+4.7%+14.0%
Q2 2023+9.1%-9.5%-7.4%
Q1 2023-7.2%-4.6%+25.8%
Q4 2020-2.6%-9.3%-3.1%
Q4 2021-2.6%-9.3%-3.1%
Q4 2022-3.7%-8.2%-26.1%
Q3 2022+10.2%+0.0%-42.5%
Q2 2022-9.0%-17.6%-51.4%
Q1 2022-0.3%-0.1%-0.2%
Q3 2021+0.2%+0.2%+1.2%
Q2 2021-0.1%-0.3%-0.5%
Q1 2021
Q3 2020
Q2 2020
Q1 2020

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