NASDAQ$PGY

Pagaya Technologies Ltd · Q3 2024 earnings

Q3 2024 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Pagaya demonstrated strong financial performance with increased revenue and operating income.

Pagaya Technologies Ltd. reported strong Q3 2024 results, achieving record total revenue of $257 million, a GAAP operating income of $22 million, and an adjusted EBITDA of $56 million. The company focused on profitable, sustainable growth and is progressing towards GAAP profitability and cash flow generation in 2025.

  • Network volume grew by 11% year-over-year, reaching $2.4 billion.
  • Total revenue increased by 21% year-over-year to $257 million, driven by a 24% increase in revenue from fees.
  • GAAP operating income grew by $22 million year-over-year.
  • Adjusted EBITDA grew $28 million year-over-year, reaching $56 million with a margin of 21.8%.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$257M

Previous: $201M+27.7%
EPS

-$0.93

Previous: $0.24-487.5%
Network Volume

$2.35B

Previous: $2.1B+12.0%
FRLPC

$100M

No prior period
FRLPC Margin

4.3%

No prior period
Adjusted EBITDA

$56.1M

No prior period
Adjusted Net Income

$33.1M

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

-$13.8M

Previous: -$5.06M-172.0%
Free Cash Flow

-$81.2M

Previous: $11.1M-833.1%
Net Income

-$67.5M

Previous: -$21.8M-210.2%
Operating Income

$22.4M

Previous: -$10.1M+320.6%
Gross Profit

$108M

Previous: $72.7M+49.0%
Cash & Equivalents

$147M

Previous: $279M-47.3%
Total Assets

$1.37B

Previous: $1.22B+12.3%
R&D Expense

$16.7M

Previous: $18M-7.7%
Stock-Based Comp

$12.3M

Previous: $20.7M-40.5%

Revenue & EPS history

Pagaya · Revenue · Quarterly

$257M

Q3 2024+27.7%vs Q3 2023
Beat estimate in 8 of 13 quarters(62%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

Pagaya provided full year 2024 outlook, expecting network volume between $9.5 billion and $9.7 billion, total revenue and other income between $1,010 million and $1,025 million, and adjusted EBITDA between $195 million and $205 million.

Tailwinds

  • Network Volume Expected to be between $9.5 billion and $9.7 billion
  • Total Revenue and Other Income Expected to be between $1,010 million and $1,025 million
  • Adjusted EBITDA Expected to be between $195 million and $205 million
  • The company is well on the way to reaching GAAP profitability and cash flow generation during 2025
  • Growth of existing partners led to personal loan network volume growth of 15% and point-of-sale (“POSˮ) network volume growth of 67% year-over-year.

Headwinds

  • The Company cannot reconcile its expected Adjusted EBITDA to expected Net Loss Attributable to Pagaya under “Full-Year 2024 Financial Outlookˮ without unreasonable effort because certain items that impact net income (loss) and other reconciling items are out of the Company's control and/or cannot be reasonably predicted at this time
  • Net loss attributable to Pagaya shareholders of $67 million was impacted by non-cash items such as fair value adjustments and share-based compensation expense.
  • Cash flow from operating activities of $2 million was impacted by one-time items.
  • Other expense, net (108,139)
  • Loss Before Income Taxes (85,755)

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2024

Historical avgQ3 2024

-0.4%

Avg return

Earnings day

-2.8%

Avg return

5 days after

-8.5%

Avg return

30 days after

45%

9 / 20 earnings

Positive

+24.3%

Q4 2024

Best reaction

-39.7%

Q3 2024

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+3.3%-8.9%-1.8%
Q4 2025-23.9%-33.3%-38.4%
Q3 2025+12.7%-2.2%+1.0%
Q1 2025-2.4%+33.6%+52.4%
Q4 2024+24.3%+43.9%-10.4%
Q3 2024-39.7%-47.8%-43.9%
Q2 2024-21.5%-18.8%-18.7%
Q1 2024+20.8%+16.8%+17.6%
Q4 2023+15.4%+15.4%-34.4%
Q3 2023+9.3%+4.7%+14.0%
Q2 2023+9.1%-9.5%-7.4%
Q1 2023-7.2%-4.6%+25.8%
Q4 2020-2.6%-9.3%-3.1%
Q4 2021-2.6%-9.3%-3.1%
Q4 2022-3.7%-8.2%-26.1%
Q3 2022+10.2%+0.0%-42.5%
Q2 2022-9.0%-17.6%-51.4%
Q1 2022-0.3%-0.1%-0.2%
Q3 2021+0.2%+0.2%+1.2%
Q2 2021-0.1%-0.3%-0.5%
Q1 2021
Q3 2020
Q2 2020
Q1 2020

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