NASDAQ$PGY

Pagaya Technologies Ltd · Q1 2024 earnings

Q1 2024 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Pagaya exceeded guidance and delivered record results across key metrics, driven by disciplined execution and strategic partnerships.

Pagaya Technologies reported a record first quarter, exceeding guidance on all metrics. Key highlights include record network volume, total revenue, and adjusted EBITDA. The company also onboarded a bank partner in its point-of-sale product and strengthened its capital position through corporate debt and equity raises.

  • Record network volume of $2.42 billion, a 31% increase year-over-year.
  • Expanded POS business with a new bank partner set to go live in the second half of 2024.
  • Record total revenue and other income of $245 million, up 31% year-over-year.
  • Raised $330 million through corporate debt and equity raises, strengthening capital position.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$245M

Previous: $187M+31.4%
EPS

-$0.33

Previous: -$0.24-37.5%
Network Volume

$2.42B

No prior period
FRLPC

$92.1M

No prior period
FRLPC Margin

3.8%

No prior period
Adjusted EBITDA

$40M

No prior period
Adjusted Net Income

$13.3M

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

-$5.15M

Previous: $5.53M-193.1%
Free Cash Flow

-$26.4M

Previous: -$29.2M+9.7%
Net Income

-$21.2M

Previous: -$31.3M+32.2%
Operating Income

$7.69M

Previous: -$10.2M+175.1%
Gross Profit

$100M

Previous: $65.1M+54.3%
Cash & Equivalents

$274M

Previous: $289M-5.1%
Total Assets

$1.48B

No prior period
R&D Expense

$19.4M

No prior period
Stock-Based Comp

$15.5M

Previous: $16.4M-5.4%

Revenue & EPS history

Pagaya · Revenue · Quarterly

$245M

Q1 2024+31.4%vs Q1 2023
Beat estimate in 8 of 13 quarters(62%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

For the second quarter of 2024, Pagaya expects Network Volume to be between $2.2 billion and $2.4 billion, Total Revenue and Other Income to be between $235 million and $245 million, and Adjusted EBITDA to be between $40 million and $45 million. For the full year 2024, Pagaya expects Network Volume to be between $9.0 billion and $10.5 billion, Total Revenue and Other Income to be between $925 million and $1,050 million, and Adjusted EBITDA to be between $150 million and $190 million.

Tailwinds

  • Network Volume Expected to be between $2.2 billion and $2.4 billion
  • Total Revenue and Other Income Expected to be between $235 million and $245 million
  • Adjusted EBITDA Expected to be between $40 million and $45 million
  • Network Volume Expected to be between $9.0 billion and $10.5 billion
  • Total Revenue and Other Income Expected to be between $925 million and $1,050 million

Headwinds

  • Cannot reconcile its expected Adjusted EBITDA to expected Net Loss Attributable to Pagaya under “Full-Year 2024 Outlook” without unreasonable effort
  • because certain items that impact net income (loss) and other reconciling items are out of the Company's control
  • or cannot be reasonably predicted at this time
  • which unavailable information could have a significant impact on the Company’s U.S. GAAP financial results.
  • forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other important factors that may cause the Company's actual results, performance or achievements to be materially different from any future results

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2024

Historical avgQ1 2024

-0.4%

Avg return

Earnings day

-2.8%

Avg return

5 days after

-8.5%

Avg return

30 days after

45%

9 / 20 earnings

Positive

+24.3%

Q4 2024

Best reaction

-39.7%

Q3 2024

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+3.3%-8.9%-1.8%
Q4 2025-23.9%-33.3%-38.4%
Q3 2025+12.7%-2.2%+1.0%
Q1 2025-2.4%+33.6%+52.4%
Q4 2024+24.3%+43.9%-10.4%
Q3 2024-39.7%-47.8%-43.9%
Q2 2024-21.5%-18.8%-18.7%
Q1 2024+20.8%+16.8%+17.6%
Q4 2023+15.4%+15.4%-34.4%
Q3 2023+9.3%+4.7%+14.0%
Q2 2023+9.1%-9.5%-7.4%
Q1 2023-7.2%-4.6%+25.8%
Q4 2020-2.6%-9.3%-3.1%
Q4 2021-2.6%-9.3%-3.1%
Q4 2022-3.7%-8.2%-26.1%
Q3 2022+10.2%+0.0%-42.5%
Q2 2022-9.0%-17.6%-51.4%
Q1 2022-0.3%-0.1%-0.2%
Q3 2021+0.2%+0.2%+1.2%
Q2 2021-0.1%-0.3%-0.5%
Q1 2021
Q3 2020
Q2 2020
Q1 2020

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