NASDAQ$PGY

Pagaya Technologies Ltd · Q4 2024 earnings

Q4 2024 earnings · · Before market open · Investor relations

Briefing

Pagaya reported strong operating and financial results, exceeding guidance and addressing legacy issues.

Pagaya Technologies reported record total revenue of $279 million, a GAAP operating income of $32 million, and an adjusted EBITDA of $64 million for Q4 2024. The company exceeded its outlook for key metrics and initiated guidance on GAAP profitability for the full year 2025, expecting to be GAAP Net Income profitable in the second quarter of 2025. It also addressed legacy investment issues and is fully self-funded.

  • Record network volume of $2.6 billion, grew by 9% year-over-year, driven primarily by Personal Loans.
  • Continued partner growth and expanded enterprise relationships, including addition and expansion of the OneMain partnership and addition of Avvance, the POS lending solution offered by U.S. Bank and Elavon.
  • Record total revenue and other income of $279 million, increased 28% year-over-year, driven primarily by 31% growth in fee revenue.
  • Record adjusted EBITDA of $64 million, grew 88% year-over-year with adjusted EBITDA margin up 728 basis points to 23.0%.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$279M

Previous: $210M+32.8%
EPS (adj)

$0.17

Previous: $0.24-29.2%
Network Volume

$2.6B

No prior period
FRLPC

$117M

No prior period
FRLPC Margin

4.5%

No prior period
Adjusted EBITDA

$64.2M

No prior period
Adjusted Net Income

$13.2M

No prior period
Net Income

-$238M

Previous: -$14.4M-1550.2%
Operating Income

$31.7M

Previous: $3.04M+945.4%

Revenue & EPS history

Pagaya · Revenue · Quarterly

$279M

Q4 2024+32.8%vs Q4 2023
Beat estimate in 8 of 13 quarters(62%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

Pagaya provided financial outlook for Q1 2025 and full year 2025.

Tailwinds

  • 1Q'25 Network Volume Expected to be between $2.5 billion and $2.7 billion
  • 1Q'25 Total Revenue and Other Income Expected to be between $280 million and $295 million
  • 1Q'25 Adjusted EBITDA Expected to be between $65 million and $75 million
  • 1Q'25 GAAP Net Income Expected to be between $20 million and breakeven
  • FY'25 GAAP Net Income Profitability expected in 2Q'25; between $10 million and $40 million for FY'25

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2024

Historical avgQ4 2024

-0.4%

Avg return

Earnings day

-2.8%

Avg return

5 days after

-8.5%

Avg return

30 days after

45%

9 / 20 earnings

Positive

+24.3%

Q4 2024

Best reaction

-39.7%

Q3 2024

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+3.3%-8.9%-1.8%
Q4 2025-23.9%-33.3%-38.4%
Q3 2025+12.7%-2.2%+1.0%
Q1 2025-2.4%+33.6%+52.4%
Q4 2024+24.3%+43.9%-10.4%
Q3 2024-39.7%-47.8%-43.9%
Q2 2024-21.5%-18.8%-18.7%
Q1 2024+20.8%+16.8%+17.6%
Q4 2023+15.4%+15.4%-34.4%
Q3 2023+9.3%+4.7%+14.0%
Q2 2023+9.1%-9.5%-7.4%
Q1 2023-7.2%-4.6%+25.8%
Q4 2020-2.6%-9.3%-3.1%
Q4 2021-2.6%-9.3%-3.1%
Q4 2022-3.7%-8.2%-26.1%
Q3 2022+10.2%+0.0%-42.5%
Q2 2022-9.0%-17.6%-51.4%
Q1 2022-0.3%-0.1%-0.2%
Q3 2021+0.2%+0.2%+1.2%
Q2 2021-0.1%-0.3%-0.5%
Q1 2021
Q3 2020
Q2 2020
Q1 2020

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