NASDAQ$OPEN

Opendoor Technologies Inc · Q4 2020 earnings

Q4 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Opendoor's Q4 2020 financial results were announced, exceeding prior expectations and demonstrating strong home resale performance and increased acquisition pace.

Opendoor Technologies Inc. reported strong Q4 2020 results, exceeding prior forecasts with a focus on digitizing the real estate transaction. The company saw increasing business momentum, healthy margins, and plans to double its footprint to 42 markets. They also became publicly-traded and completed a follow-on public equity offering, increasing cash and marketable securities.

  • Became publicly-traded via a merger on December 18, 2020, raising net proceeds of $970 million.
  • Completed an underwritten follow-on public equity offering of $860 million of net proceeds in February 2021, with $1,460 million in cash and marketable securities at the end of Q4 2020.
  • Tripled inventory balance from Q3 2020 to $466 million and 1,827 homes at year end.
  • Generated 15.4% Gross Profit margins and 12.6% Contribution Profit margins in the fourth quarter of 2020.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$249M

Previous: $4.74B-94.7%
EPS (adj)

-$0.23

Previous: -$4.26+94.6%
Homes Sold

849

Previous: 5.0K-83.1%
Capital Expenditures

$5.27M

Previous: $28M-81.1%
Free Cash Flow

$679M

Previous: -$300M+326.3%
Net Income

-$87.8M

Previous: -$341M+74.3%
Operating Income

-$66.1M

Previous: -$248M+73.3%
Gross Profit

$38.4M

Previous: $301M-87.3%
Cash & Equivalents

$1.41B

Previous: $405M+248.8%
Total Assets

$2.18B

Previous: $2.23B-2.5%
Stock-Based Comp

$28.8M

Previous: $12.6M+128.8%

Revenue & EPS history

Opendoor · Revenue · Quarterly

$249M

Q4 2020-94.7%vs Q4 2019
Beat estimate in 6 of 8 quarters(75%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

For the first quarter of 2021, Opendoor expects total revenue between $600 million and $625 million, representing 146% sequential growth over Q4 2020. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between $(33) million and $(28) million, with Adjusted EBITDA margins of (5)% at the midpoint.

Tailwinds

  • Expected return to sequential revenue growth across existing markets.
  • Strong and increasing demand for Opendoor’s service.
  • Accelerating pace of home acquisitions.
  • Plans to launch six new markets in Q1.
  • Revenue is expected to be between $600 million and $625 million.

Headwinds

  • Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between $(33) million and $(28) million.
  • Adjusted EBITDA margins of (5)% are expected.
  • Uncertainty regarding inventory impairment.
  • Uncertainty regarding stock-based compensation with respect to future grants and forfeitures.
  • These items, which could materially affect the computation of forward-looking GAAP net income (loss), are inherently uncertain and depend on various factors, some of which are outside of the Company’s control.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2020

Historical avgQ4 2020

-5.3%

Avg return

Earnings day

-7.8%

Avg return

5 days after

-3.7%

Avg return

30 days after

36%

10 / 28 earnings

Positive

+33.6%

Q1 2023

Best reaction

-25.9%

Q2 2023

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-1.0%-13.7%-17.3%
Q4 2025-5.8%+7.1%+5.6%
Q3 2025+17.2%+42.8%+9.0%
Q1 2025+24.4%+0.9%-3.0%
Q4 2024-6.3%-14.0%-21.0%
Q3 2024+3.9%-0.6%+23.6%
Q2 2024-19.8%-26.1%-7.3%
Q1 2024+10.5%+12.5%+9.0%
Q4 2023-12.8%-18.6%-22.3%
Q3 2023+10.6%+9.5%+75.7%
Q2 2023-25.9%-25.7%-18.6%
Q1 2023+33.6%+60.4%+85.1%
Q4 2022-13.5%-22.2%-10.3%
Q3 2022-11.8%-28.4%-25.3%
Q2 2022+9.8%+4.2%-21.3%
Q1 2022-16.3%-26.9%-6.2%
Q4 2021-8.5%-10.7%-6.2%
Q3 2021+7.4%+7.4%-28.7%
Q2 2021+21.1%+9.8%+26.3%
Q1 2021-9.5%-9.8%+3.1%
Q2 2019-23.8%-25.0%-24.6%
Q1 2019-23.8%-25.0%-24.6%
Q4 2020-23.8%-25.0%-24.6%
Q4 2019-23.8%-25.0%-24.6%
Q4 2018-23.8%-25.0%-24.6%
Q3 2019-23.8%-25.0%-24.6%
Q2 2020-23.8%-25.0%-24.6%
Q3 2020+11.2%-0.7%+19.1%
Q1 2020
Q1 2014
Q4 2013
Q3 2013
Q2 2013
Q1 2013
Q4 2012
Q3 2012
Q2 2012

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