NASDAQ$MGPI

MGP Ingredients Inc · Q3 2024 earnings

Q3 2024 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

MGP Ingredients' Q3 2024 performance aligned with preliminary results, with sales decreasing and net income increasing.

MGP Ingredients reported a 24% decrease in consolidated sales to $161.5 million, while net income increased by 82% to $23.9 million. The company is taking steps to mitigate the impact of softening American whiskey category trends and elevated industry-wide barrel inventories.

  • Consolidated sales decreased by 24% to $161.5 million.
  • Net income increased by 82% to $23.9 million, with a net income margin of 14.8%.
  • Basic earnings per share increased to $1.07 from $0.59.
  • Consolidated gross profit decreased by 10% to $65.8 million, while gross margin increased to 40.8%.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$161M

Previous: $212M-23.7%
EPS (adj)

$1.29

Previous: $1.34-3.7%
Capital Expenditures

-$52.9M

Previous: -$42.1M-25.6%
Free Cash Flow

-$28.9M

Previous: -$28.9M-0.3%
Net Income

$23.9M

Previous: $13.2M+80.9%
Operating Income

$32.6M

Previous: $19.8M+64.1%
Gross Profit

$65.8M

Previous: $73.4M-10.4%
Cash & Equivalents

$20.8M

Previous: $28M-25.9%
Total Assets

$1.44B

Previous: $1.37B+5.4%
Stock-Based Comp

$767K

Previous: $2.01M-61.9%

Revenue & EPS history

MGP Ingredients · Revenue · Quarterly

$161M

Q3 2024-23.7%vs Q3 2023
Beat estimate in 10 of 14 quarters(71%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

MGP Ingredients · $212M total across 3 segments · Q3 2023

  • Distilling Solutions
    $112M+3.0%
  • Branded Spirits
    $66.8M+6.4%
  • Ingredient Solutions
    $33M+10.9%

Forward guidance

MGP reaffirmed its recently revised consolidated guidance for fiscal 2024.

Tailwinds

  • Sales in the range of $695 million to $705 million.
  • Adjusted EBITDA in the range of $196 million to $200 million, inclusive of the add back of share-based compensation expense.
  • Adjusted basic EPS in the $5.55 to $5.65 range, with approximately 22.1 million basic weighted average shares outstanding at the year end and effective tax rate of approximately 24%.
  • Full year capital expenditures of $78 million.
  • The company will provide additional commentary on its 2025 outlook in its conference call discussing the third quarter results.

Headwinds

  • Softening American whiskey category trends
  • Elevated industry-wide barrel inventories
  • Further lowering net aging whiskey put away in 2025
  • Scaling down whiskey production in 2025
  • Optimizing cost structure to mitigate lower production volumes

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2024

Historical avgQ3 2024

-0.7%

Avg return

Earnings day

-1.1%

Avg return

5 days after

-0.5%

Avg return

30 days after

58%

36 / 62 earnings

Positive

+15.7%

Q3 2017

Best reaction

-21.4%

Q1 2019

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-5.2%-5.8%-12.8%
Q4 2025-21.2%-25.7%-27.9%
Q3 2025-1.9%+0.6%-7.6%
Q1 2025+4.8%+9.0%-0.2%
Q4 2024-1.1%-0.4%-10.3%
Q3 2024-19.2%-16.6%-17.8%
Q2 2024+4.4%+0.7%+9.9%
Q1 2024+3.0%+3.3%-0.8%
Q4 2023-13.2%-14.4%-9.3%
Q3 2023+2.2%+3.4%-5.6%
Q2 2023+6.6%+8.0%+5.6%
Q1 2023+6.2%+3.8%+5.6%
Q4 2022+8.4%+5.5%-1.8%
Q3 2022+5.2%+7.9%+17.2%
Q2 2022+6.9%+5.0%+3.6%
Q1 2022+0.3%-1.6%+2.4%
Q4 2021+2.0%+2.3%+11.8%
Q3 2021+10.2%+8.3%+23.8%
Q2 2021+14.6%+14.8%+16.1%
Q1 2021+1.7%+4.9%+20.2%
Q4 2020-8.0%-7.0%-12.2%
Q3 2020+4.6%+0.7%+10.2%
Q2 2020-6.5%-6.6%-6.5%
Q1 2020-6.8%-9.4%-8.5%
Q4 2019-10.4%-5.9%-16.1%
Q3 2019-4.9%-6.0%-5.9%
Q2 2019-18.6%-18.6%-28.3%
Q1 2019-21.4%-19.0%-31.5%
Q4 2018+5.3%+5.0%-0.8%
Q3 2018-8.1%-3.5%-4.5%
Q2 2018-5.6%-4.7%-4.4%
Q1 2018-10.2%-4.8%-5.4%
Q4 2017-1.4%-9.5%+6.8%
Q3 2017+15.7%+17.8%+19.0%
Q2 2017+2.9%+2.0%+0.8%
Q1 2017+5.5%+3.2%-2.3%
Q4 2016+10.3%+14.1%+17.9%
Q3 2016+12.6%+14.8%+36.4%
Q2 2016-19.1%-19.9%-4.4%
Q1 2016+0.7%
Q4 2015-17.2%
Q3 2015+1.3%
Q2 2015+10.4%
Q1 2015+2.5%
Q4 2014+0.4%
Q3 2014-3.8%
Q2 2014+8.6%
Q1 2014+2.9%
Q4 2013+1.2%
Q3 2013-4.3%
Q2 2013+5.0%
Q1 2013-2.3%
Q4 2012-4.6%
Q3 2012+2.0%
Q2 2012+6.7%
Q3 2011-0.5%
Q4 2009+2.8%
Q4 2011+2.8%
Q4 2010+2.8%
Q1 2012+2.0%
Q1 2011-8.2%
Q1 2010-7.7%

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