NASDAQ$LINC

Lincoln Educational Services Corporation · Q4 2022 earnings

Q4 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Lincoln Educational Services returned to student start growth, achieved strong financial results, and graduation rates reached a new company high.

Lincoln Educational Services Corporation reported strong Q4 2022 results, with revenue and Adjusted EBITDA growth compared to the previous year. Student retention and placement rates continued positive trends, and graduation rates reached a new company high. The company is investing in a new hybrid teaching model and program expansions to accelerate growth.

  • Lincoln returned to student start growth during the fourth quarter.
  • The company achieved strong financial results in its most profitable quarter.
  • Student retention and placement rates continued their positive trends.
  • Graduation rates reached a new company high.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$91.8M

Previous: $87.8M+4.5%
EPS (adj)

$0.27

Previous: $0.73-63.0%
Capital Expenditures

$1.93M

Previous: $2.28M-15.2%
Free Cash Flow

-$1.66M

Previous: $7.42M-122.4%
Net Income

-$7.18M

Previous: $24M-129.9%
Operating Income

-$4.58M

Previous: $34M-113.4%
Gross Profit

$55.3M

Previous: $53M+4.2%
Cash & Equivalents

$65M

Previous: $83.3M-22.0%
Total Assets

$292M

Previous: $295M-1.3%
Stock-Based Comp

$744K

Previous: $796K-6.5%

Revenue & EPS history

Lincoln Tech · Revenue · Quarterly

$91.8M

Q4 2022+4.5%vs Q4 2021
Beat estimate in 11 of 15 quarters(73%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

Lincoln expects modest revenue growth for the full year 2023, driven by an increase in new student starts and higher revenue per student. Profitability is expected to be depressed due to investments in the hybrid teaching model, centralization of financial aid, and the launch of new programs. Adjusted EBITDA is forecasted to be $19 - $24 million for 2023.

Tailwinds

  • Continued strong demand for programs
  • Efficiency and growth from investments
  • Early contribution from new Atlanta, GA location
  • Adjusted EBITDA will approximately double from 2022 levels by 2025
  • Evaluating additional locations to open five new campuses in the next five years

Headwinds

  • Increased instructional costs over the short term
  • Extending investment in centralizing financial aid process into 2023
  • Incurring expenses associated with the initial launch of new programs
  • Modest revenue growth for the full year
  • Profitability will be depressed

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2022

Historical avgQ4 2022

+3.0%

Avg return

Earnings day

+6.4%

Avg return

5 days after

+9.7%

Avg return

30 days after

60%

39 / 65 earnings

Positive

+61.0%

Q3 2015

Best reaction

-25.7%

Q2 2015

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+10.5%+9.6%
Q4 2025+4.0%+20.8%+38.7%
Q3 2025+12.9%+17.2%+25.6%
Q1 2025+1.9%+3.7%+3.4%
Q4 2024+15.3%+14.0%-3.0%
Q3 2024+4.3%-6.2%+0.9%
Q2 2024+2.8%+1.9%-2.1%
Q1 2024+7.3%+9.5%-1.1%
Q4 2023+4.4%+2.7%+6.6%
Q3 2023+6.4%+11.5%+7.1%
Q2 2023+24.0%+22.2%+17.5%
Q1 2023+3.1%+12.6%+17.6%
Q4 2022-2.7%+3.0%-6.5%
Q3 2022+14.3%+10.6%+5.9%
Q2 2022-13.0%-15.7%-12.4%
Q1 2022-15.6%-19.0%-5.4%
Q4 2021+0.8%-0.8%-5.0%
Q3 2021+3.7%+3.7%+9.4%
Q2 2021-6.9%-3.2%-14.9%
Q1 2021+3.7%+4.4%+8.7%
Q4 2020-1.3%-1.2%+7.6%
Q3 2020+6.7%+9.2%+10.4%
Q2 2020+25.5%+41.0%+29.6%
Q1 2020+9.8%+9.0%+65.9%
Q4 2019+14.9%+15.4%-5.0%
Q3 2019-7.2%+1.1%+32.6%
Q2 2019-7.0%+1.1%+15.6%
Q1 2019+4.6%-5.9%-12.5%
Q4 2018-0.9%-8.7%-3.4%
Q3 2018+11.5%+10.7%+8.6%
Q2 2018+22.2%+17.2%+26.1%
Q1 2018-7.4%-11.8%-10.8%
Q4 2017+25.0%+20.4%+30.9%
Q3 2017+11.7%+11.3%+3.8%
Q2 2017-3.9%-11.4%-19.0%
Q1 2017+6.3%+15.7%+19.9%
Q4 2016+15.5%+19.3%+50.3%
Q3 2016+4.4%+9.4%+26.9%
Q2 2016-5.3%+4.3%+0.5%
Q1 2016-0.5%
Q4 2015+6.7%
Q3 2015+61.0%
Q2 2015-25.7%
Q1 2015-3.0%
Q4 2014-2.5%
Q3 2014+13.9%
Q2 2014-25.6%
Q1 2014+3.3%
Q4 2013-2.0%
Q3 2013+6.6%
Q2 2013-4.0%
Q1 2013+9.2%
Q4 2011+4.3%
Q4 2012+1.2%
Q3 2012+12.4%
Q2 2012-17.9%
Q1 2011-2.1%
Q1 2012+0.0%
Q4 2009+2.5%
Q3 2010-4.5%
Q3 2011-4.5%
Q2 2010-13.5%
Q4 2010-13.5%
Q2 2011-13.5%
Q1 2010+1.1%

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