NASDAQ$LINC

Lincoln Educational Services Corporation · Q4 2019 earnings

Q4 2019 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Lincoln Tech reported strong Q4 2019 results, with revenue and net income increasing.

Lincoln Tech reported a strong fourth quarter with a 5.4% increase in total revenue, driven by growth in both Transportation and Skilled Trades and Healthcare and Other Professions segments. Net income increased significantly by 82.5%, reflecting improved operating efficiency and expense controls. The company also completed financing transactions that increased liquidity and are expected to result in annualized interest savings.

  • Total revenue increased by 5.4%, with same school revenue up 7.1%.
  • Student starts rose by 9.7%, marking nine consecutive quarters of growth for both Transportation and Skilled Trades and Healthcare and Other Professions segments.
  • Operating income grew by 74.7% to $10.1 million.
  • Net income increased by 82.5% to $9.2 million, or $0.33 per diluted share.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$73.9M

Previous: $70.1M+5.4%
EPS (adj)

$0.33

Previous: $0.20+65.0%
Student Starts

2.3K

Previous: 2.1K+9.7%
Average Population

11.7K

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

$2.11M

Previous: $480K+340.2%
Free Cash Flow

$3.77M

Previous: $3.64M+3.5%
Net Income

$9.21M

Previous: $5.03M+82.9%
Operating Income

$10.1M

Previous: $5.75M+74.7%
Gross Profit

$43.4M

Previous: $38.9M+11.4%
Cash & Equivalents

$23.6M

Previous: $17.6M+34.6%
Total Assets

$195M

Previous: $146M+33.4%
Stock-Based Comp

$219K

Previous: $20K+995.0%

Revenue & EPS history

Lincoln Tech · Revenue · Quarterly

$73.9M

Q4 2019+5.4%vs Q4 2018
Beat estimate in 7 of 16 quarters(44%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

The Company is providing the following guidance for 2020:

Tailwinds

  • Revenue and student starts are expected to increase 3% to 5%.
  • EBITDA is projected to be between $15.0 million to $17.0 million, which would be a 12% to 27% increase over 2019 EBITDA.
  • Operating income is expected to be between $7.0 million to $9.0 million, which would represent a growth rate of 34% to 72% over 2019 operating income.
  • Capital expenditures are projected to be between $6.5 million to $7.5 million.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2019

Historical avgQ4 2019

+3.0%

Avg return

Earnings day

+6.4%

Avg return

5 days after

+9.7%

Avg return

30 days after

60%

39 / 65 earnings

Positive

+61.0%

Q3 2015

Best reaction

-25.7%

Q2 2015

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+10.5%+9.6%
Q4 2025+4.0%+20.8%+38.7%
Q3 2025+12.9%+17.2%+25.6%
Q1 2025+1.9%+3.7%+3.4%
Q4 2024+15.3%+14.0%-3.0%
Q3 2024+4.3%-6.2%+0.9%
Q2 2024+2.8%+1.9%-2.1%
Q1 2024+7.3%+9.5%-1.1%
Q4 2023+4.4%+2.7%+6.6%
Q3 2023+6.4%+11.5%+7.1%
Q2 2023+24.0%+22.2%+17.5%
Q1 2023+3.1%+12.6%+17.6%
Q4 2022-2.7%+3.0%-6.5%
Q3 2022+14.3%+10.6%+5.9%
Q2 2022-13.0%-15.7%-12.4%
Q1 2022-15.6%-19.0%-5.4%
Q4 2021+0.8%-0.8%-5.0%
Q3 2021+3.7%+3.7%+9.4%
Q2 2021-6.9%-3.2%-14.9%
Q1 2021+3.7%+4.4%+8.7%
Q4 2020-1.3%-1.2%+7.6%
Q3 2020+6.7%+9.2%+10.4%
Q2 2020+25.5%+41.0%+29.6%
Q1 2020+9.8%+9.0%+65.9%
Q4 2019+14.9%+15.4%-5.0%
Q3 2019-7.2%+1.1%+32.6%
Q2 2019-7.0%+1.1%+15.6%
Q1 2019+4.6%-5.9%-12.5%
Q4 2018-0.9%-8.7%-3.4%
Q3 2018+11.5%+10.7%+8.6%
Q2 2018+22.2%+17.2%+26.1%
Q1 2018-7.4%-11.8%-10.8%
Q4 2017+25.0%+20.4%+30.9%
Q3 2017+11.7%+11.3%+3.8%
Q2 2017-3.9%-11.4%-19.0%
Q1 2017+6.3%+15.7%+19.9%
Q4 2016+15.5%+19.3%+50.3%
Q3 2016+4.4%+9.4%+26.9%
Q2 2016-5.3%+4.3%+0.5%
Q1 2016-0.5%
Q4 2015+6.7%
Q3 2015+61.0%
Q2 2015-25.7%
Q1 2015-3.0%
Q4 2014-2.5%
Q3 2014+13.9%
Q2 2014-25.6%
Q1 2014+3.3%
Q4 2013-2.0%
Q3 2013+6.6%
Q2 2013-4.0%
Q1 2013+9.2%
Q4 2011+4.3%
Q4 2012+1.2%
Q3 2012+12.4%
Q2 2012-17.9%
Q1 2011-2.1%
Q1 2012+0.0%
Q4 2009+2.5%
Q3 2010-4.5%
Q3 2011-4.5%
Q2 2010-13.5%
Q4 2010-13.5%
Q2 2011-13.5%
Q1 2010+1.1%

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