NASDAQ$CFLT

Confluent Inc. · Q4 2023 earnings

Q4 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Confluent's Q4 2023 financial results were announced, revealing a strong close to the fiscal year with significant growth in Confluent Cloud revenue and subscription revenue.

Confluent reported a 26% year-over-year increase in total revenue for Q4 2023, reaching $213 million. Confluent Cloud revenue grew by 46% year over year, marking the first $100 million quarter for Confluent Cloud. The company achieved a positive non-GAAP operating margin in Q4.

  • Total revenue for Q4 2023 reached $213 million, a 26% increase year-over-year.
  • Subscription revenue for Q4 2023 grew by 31% year-over-year, amounting to $203 million.
  • Confluent Cloud revenue for Q4 2023 increased by 46% year-over-year, reaching $100 million.
  • The company reported 1,229 customers with $100,000 or greater in ARR, a 21% increase year-over-year.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$213M

Previous: $169M+26.4%
EPS (adj)

$0.09

Previous: -$0.09+200.0%
Customers with $100K+ ARR

1.2K

Previous: 991+24.0%
Capital Expenditures

-$5.42M

Previous: $1.01M-638.3%
Net Income

-$94.1M

Previous: -$106M+11.1%
Operating Income

-$84.7M

Previous: -$115M+26.4%
Gross Profit

$156M

Previous: $115M+36.1%
Stock-Based Comp

$88.9M

Previous: $76M+16.9%

Revenue & EPS history

Confluent · Revenue · Quarterly

$213M

Q4 2023+26.4%vs Q4 2022
Beat estimate in 15 of 16 quarters(94%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Confluent · $200M total across 2 segments · Q3 2023

  • Subscription Revenue
    $189M+36.4%
  • Services Revenue
    $10.9M-16.1%

Forward guidance

For Q1 2024, Confluent anticipates total revenue between $211 million and $212 million, subscription revenue between $199 million and $200 million, a non-GAAP operating margin of approximately negative 4%, and non-GAAP net income per diluted share between $0.00 and $0.02. For fiscal year 2024, the company expects total revenue of approximately $950 million, a non-GAAP operating margin of approximately 0%, and non-GAAP net income per diluted share of approximately $0.17.

Tailwinds

  • Total revenue between $211 million and $212 million for Q1 2024
  • Subscription revenue between $199 million and $200 million for Q1 2024
  • Non-GAAP operating margin of approximately negative 4% for Q1 2024
  • Non-GAAP net income per diluted share between $0.00 to $0.02 for Q1 2024
  • Total revenue of approximately $950 million for fiscal year 2024

Headwinds

  • Non-GAAP operating margin of approximately 0% for fiscal year 2024
  • Non-GAAP net income per diluted share of approximately $0.17 for fiscal year 2024
  • Uncertainty in predicting stock-based compensation expense
  • Uncertainty in predicting employer payroll tax-related items on employee stock transactions
  • Impact of employee stock transactions and stock price fluctuations on future GAAP financial results

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 17 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2023

Historical avgQ4 2023

-0.2%

Avg return

Earnings day

-1.1%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.4%

Avg return

30 days after

60%

12 / 20 earnings

Positive

+38.7%

Q4 2023

Best reaction

-43.7%

Q3 2023

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026
Q4 2025+0.1%+0.6%+0.6%
Q3 2025+7.8%+6.2%-1.0%
Q2 2025-32.8%-35.0%-24.8%
Q1 2025-18.4%-17.1%-3.3%
Q4 2024+25.1%+15.8%-12.4%
Q3 2024+13.6%+15.6%+33.9%
Q2 2024-15.1%-23.1%-12.6%
Q1 2024+9.6%+2.8%-9.4%
Q4 2023+38.7%+34.2%+38.7%
Q3 2023-43.7%-39.0%-21.0%
Q2 2023+8.6%+3.9%+0.2%
Q1 2023+13.2%+10.6%+68.6%
Q4 2022-1.7%+0.8%+5.7%
Q3 2022-12.2%-19.8%-12.1%
Q2 2022+20.5%+25.0%-7.9%
Q1 2022-29.1%-41.0%-35.2%
Q4 2021-23.7%-23.2%-58.5%
Q3 2021+22.3%+17.5%-5.1%
Q4 2020+6.9%+21.6%+42.2%
Q2 2021+6.9%+21.6%+42.2%
Q1 2021
Q3 2020
Q2 2020
Q1 2020

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