NASDAQ$AVO

Mission Produce Inc · Q3 2022 earnings

Q3 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Announced fiscal year 2022 third quarter financial results.

Mission Produce reported a 27% increase in total revenue to $313.2 million, driven by a 42% increase in average selling prices, despite an 11% decrease in avocado volume sold. Net income remained flat at $18.4 million, while adjusted EBITDA increased to $31.6 million.

  • Total revenue increased by 27% to $313.2 million, driven by a 42% increase in average selling prices.
  • Net income was $18.4 million, or $0.26 per diluted share, consistent with the same period last year.
  • Adjusted EBITDA increased to $31.6 million, driven by higher per-unit gross margins.
  • Tim Bulow was appointed as President and Chief Operating Officer.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$313M

Previous: $247M+26.9%
EPS (adj)

$0.27

Previous: $0.27+0.0%
Capital Expenditures

-$42M

Previous: -$61.3M+31.5%
Free Cash Flow

-$23.6M

Previous: -$42.9M+45.0%
Net Income

$18.4M

Previous: $18.4M+0.0%
Operating Income

$22M

Previous: $23.7M-7.2%
Gross Profit

$42.6M

Previous: $40.9M+4.2%
Cash & Equivalents

$43.8M

Previous: $70.9M-38.2%
Total Assets

$954M

Previous: $821M+16.2%
Stock-Based Comp

$900K

Previous: $500K+80.0%

Revenue & EPS history

Mission Produce · Revenue · Quarterly

$313M

Q3 2022+26.9%vs Q3 2021
Beat estimate in 13 of 16 quarters(81%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Mission Produce · $4.3M total across 2 segments · Q3 2022

  • International Farming
    $4M-93.9%
  • Blueberries
    $300K

Forward guidance

The industry expects fourth quarter volumes to increase sequentially and remain consistent with the prior year period. Pricing peaked early in the third quarter and is expected to soften further during fiscal fourth quarter.

Tailwinds

  • Industry expects fourth quarter volumes to increase sequentially.
  • Industry expects fourth quarter volumes to remain consistent with the prior year period.
  • Ample Peruvian product in the supply chain.
  • Transition to the new Mexican crop, which is expected to be larger than the prior year.
  • Expectations for avocado production from owned farms in the range of 110 million to 120 million pounds for the full harvest season (versus 101 million pounds in fiscal 2021).

Headwinds

  • Pricing peaked early in third quarter.
  • Pricing environment should continue to soften further during fiscal fourth quarter.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2022

Historical avgQ3 2022

-0.8%

Avg return

Earnings day

-1.3%

Avg return

5 days after

-3.4%

Avg return

30 days after

52%

13 / 25 earnings

Positive

+21.1%

Q3 2024

Best reaction

-18.1%

Q4 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q2 2026+7.6%+11.0%
Q1 2026-8.2%-5.6%+11.9%
Q4 2025+0.3%-10.4%-5.3%
Q3 2025+1.7%-1.0%-9.0%
Q2 2025+0.0%+1.9%-3.9%
Q1 2025-13.2%-14.5%-17.5%
Q4 2024+14.7%+14.2%-0.9%
Q3 2024+21.1%+22.8%+14.0%
Q2 2024-3.5%-9.7%-15.5%
Q1 2024+9.0%+9.6%+4.1%
Q4 2023+10.4%+14.2%+8.9%
Q3 2023-3.2%+3.1%+5.0%
Q2 2023+6.4%-3.1%-6.0%
Q1 2023-5.4%-4.4%+0.6%
Q4 2022-18.1%-22.9%-20.7%
Q3 2022+0.3%-1.1%-7.3%
Q2 2022+5.3%-0.4%+4.7%
Q1 2022-10.7%-12.9%-2.1%
Q4 2021-11.0%-10.9%-23.8%
Q4 2019-11.0%-10.9%-23.8%
Q3 2021-10.3%-2.9%-7.9%
Q3 2020-10.3%-2.9%-7.9%
Q2 2021+3.5%+2.2%-5.8%
Q1 2021+1.6%-0.7%-6.0%
Q4 2020+3.8%+3.6%+33.1%
Q2 2020
Q1 2020
Q3 2019
Q2 2019
Q1 2019

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