NASDAQ$ALRM

Alarm.com Holdings Inc. · Q4 2020 earnings

Q4 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Alarm.com reported solid results for Q4 2020, with SaaS and license revenue increasing 17% year-over-year and total revenue increasing 18% year-over-year.

Alarm.com reported solid financial results for the fourth quarter of 2020. SaaS and license revenue increased by 17% year-over-year, and total revenue increased by 18% year-over-year. GAAP net income attributable to common stockholders increased to $16.0 million.

  • SaaS and license revenue increased 17% year-over-year to $105.5 million.
  • Total revenue increased 18% year-over-year to $165.6 million.
  • GAAP net income attributable to common stockholders increased to $16.0 million, compared to $13.0 million for the fourth quarter 2019.
  • Non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA increased 8% year-over-year to $32.4 million, compared to $30.0 million for the fourth quarter 2019.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$166M

Previous: $140M+17.9%
EPS (adj)

$0.45

Previous: $0.43+4.7%
Capital Expenditures

$5.46M

Previous: $8.66M-36.9%
Free Cash Flow

$29.9M

Previous: $14.6M+104.8%
Net Income

$16M

Previous: $12.8M+24.7%
Operating Income

$13.4M

Previous: $15M-10.5%
Gross Profit

$106M

Previous: $87.9M+20.9%
Cash & Equivalents

$254M

Previous: $120M+111.9%
Total Assets

$732M

Previous: $558M+31.2%
Stock-Based Comp

$8.28M

Previous: $5.88M+40.7%

Revenue & EPS history

Alarm.com · Revenue · Quarterly

$166M

Q4 2020+17.9%vs Q4 2019
Beat estimate in 16 of 16 quarters(100%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Alarm.com · $166M total across 2 segments · Q4 2020

  • SaaS and license revenue
    $106M+17.1%
  • Hardware and other revenue
    $60.1M+19.2%

Forward guidance

Alarm.com provided its outlook for SaaS and license revenue for the first quarter of 2021 and its guidance for the full year 2021 based upon current management expectations in light of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.

Tailwinds

  • SaaS and license revenue is expected to be in the range of $104.8 million to $105.0 million for the first quarter of 2021.
  • SaaS and license revenue is expected to be in the range of $440.5 million to $441.5 million for the full year 2021.
  • Total revenue is expected to be in the range of $660.5 million to $671.5 million for the full year 2021, which includes anticipated hardware and other revenue in the range of $220.0 million to $230.0 million.
  • Non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA is expected to be in the range of $120.0 million to $130.0 million for the full year 2021.
  • Non-GAAP adjusted net income attributable to common stockholders is expected to be in the range of $84.0 million to $90.0 million for the full year 2021, based on an estimated tax rate of 21.0%.

Headwinds

  • The general economic situation remains fluid.
  • It remains challenging to predict the full scope and duration of the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic.
  • Actual results may differ materially.
  • The guidance provided above is forward-looking in nature.
  • Alarm.com undertakes no obligation to update guidance after such date.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2020

Historical avgQ4 2020

+0.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.3%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.4%

Avg return

30 days after

52%

25 / 48 earnings

Positive

+22.7%

Q2 2023

Best reaction

-14.0%

Q3 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+1.3%-9.9%-3.4%
Q4 2025+0.8%+4.2%-1.8%
Q3 2025+5.8%+6.4%+10.5%
Q1 2025+1.5%+8.4%+5.4%
Q4 2024-1.7%-4.5%-6.6%
Q3 2024+9.5%+4.3%+17.9%
Q2 2024-5.0%-6.1%-14.9%
Q1 2024-1.0%-0.5%-9.2%
Q4 2023+4.3%+9.3%+5.9%
Q3 2023+8.8%+11.7%+9.5%
Q2 2023+22.7%+16.5%+17.8%
Q1 2023+4.8%+4.3%+6.2%
Q4 2022-2.0%-2.1%-4.8%
Q3 2022-14.0%+2.2%-11.0%
Q2 2022+3.6%+4.9%-3.4%
Q1 2022-10.9%-9.7%+1.8%
Q4 2021-1.1%+0.5%-1.1%
Q3 2021+2.7%+0.8%-9.7%
Q2 2021+7.4%+3.5%+1.3%
Q1 2021-5.8%-4.6%-12.5%
Q4 2020-5.4%-1.9%-6.2%
Q3 2020+12.9%+8.6%+23.1%
Q2 2020-0.2%-2.7%-2.7%
Q1 2020+12.2%+11.3%+31.9%
Q4 2019+3.9%+4.4%-8.2%
Q3 2019-9.4%-11.2%-16.6%
Q2 2019+5.3%-2.1%+1.2%
Q1 2019-8.1%-15.4%-22.2%
Q4 2018-8.8%-9.0%-0.2%
Q3 2018+8.5%+3.2%+10.7%
Q2 2018+8.4%+13.0%+23.9%
Q1 2018-3.2%-6.2%+6.7%
Q4 2017-6.3%-3.1%-2.2%
Q3 2017-12.8%-11.5%-18.7%
Q2 2017+5.7%+4.0%+13.8%
Q1 2017-3.2%-4.4%+6.1%
Q4 2016+3.8%+8.9%+2.5%
Q3 2016-9.2%-4.3%-9.3%
Q2 2016-2.8%-9.1%-17.1%
Q1 2016-1.7%
Q1 2015-1.7%
Q4 2013+3.0%
Q4 2015+3.0%
Q3 2014-2.7%
Q3 2015-2.7%
Q2 2015+2.4%
Q4 2014+2.4%
Q2 2014+2.4%
Q1 2014
Q3 2013
Q2 2013
Q1 2013

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