NASDAQ$AGIO

Agios Pharmaceuticals Inc · Q1 2020 earnings

Q1 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Agios reported first quarter results, highlighting TIBSOVO® net revenue of $22.7 million and reiterated 2020 TIBSOVO® net U.S. revenue guidance.

Agios Pharmaceuticals reported a total revenue of $87.1 million for the first quarter of 2020, which includes $22.7 million from TIBSOVO® net product revenue. The company's net loss was $40.3 million. They anticipate funding operating expenses through June 2022 due to cash conservation actions.

  • TIBSOVO® net sales increased by 16% and total number of unique prescribers expanded by 25% from the fourth quarter of 2019.
  • Enrollment was completed in ACTIVATE, the ongoing pivotal trial of mitapivat in adults with pyruvate kinase (PK) deficiency.
  • Agios continues to expect its 2020 TIBSOVO® net U.S. revenue to be between $105 and 115 million.
  • Cash conservation efforts extend runway to the end of June 2022.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$87.1M

Previous: $30.2M+188.1%
EPS (adj)

-$0.59

Previous: -$1.59+62.9%
Capital Expenditures

-$4.46M

Previous: -$2.04M-118.6%
Free Cash Flow

-$44.7M

Previous: -$95.1M+53.0%
Net Income

-$40.3M

Previous: -$93.1M+56.8%
Operating Income

-$43.2M

Previous: -$97.5M+55.7%
Gross Profit

$86.6M

Previous: $29.9M+189.6%
Cash & Equivalents

$613M

No prior period
Total Assets

$800M

No prior period
Stock-Based Comp

$15.7M

No prior period

Revenue & EPS history

Agios · Revenue · Quarterly

$87.1M

Q1 2020+188.1%vs Q1 2019
Beat estimate in 8 of 16 quarters(50%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

Agios continues to expect its 2020 TIBSOVO® net U.S. revenue to be between $105 and 115 million.

Tailwinds

  • The EU regulatory process for TIBSOVO® in relapsed and refractory AML remains on track with a CHMP opinion expected by the end of 2020.
  • Agios remains on track to name a new development candidate by the end of the year.
  • The decision on proof-of-concept for mitapivat in sickle cell disease remains on track for mid-2020.
  • ACTIVATE and ACTIVATE-T topline data are now expected between the end of 2020 and mid-2021.
  • Agios still expects mature overall survival data from the ClarIDHy study in mid-2020.

Headwinds

  • Agios expects some delays in its clinical programs based on anticipated challenges related to data collection, access to trial sites and patient enrollment due to hospitals globally shifting resources to treat patients with COVID-19.
  • Enrollment completion for AGILE, Myelodysplastic Syndrome (MDS) is now expected in 2021 versus previous guidance of the end of 2020.
  • Agios now expects to file a supplemental new drug application (sNDA) for TIBSOVO® in previously treated cholangiocarcinoma between the end of 2020 and mid-2021 versus previous guidance of the end of 2020.
  • Enrollment has slowed as a result of COVID-19 related delays in site start-up activities and enrollment interruptions.
  • As a result of limited enrollment in the study, Agios will stop in-house development of AG-636 and evaluate partnering options.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2020

Historical avgQ1 2020

-0.0%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.5%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.9%

Avg return

30 days after

50%

25 / 50 earnings

Positive

+19.2%

Q2 2022

Best reaction

-15.0%

Q1 2020

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-0.1%+11.1%+18.5%
Q4 2025+1.3%+0.4%+0.5%
Q3 2025+2.8%-4.7%-30.4%
Q1 2025+4.2%-4.6%+8.1%
Q4 2024+1.5%+2.4%-5.7%
Q3 2024-3.1%+0.9%+28.3%
Q2 2024-5.3%-8.2%-1.1%
Q1 2024+2.6%-2.6%+8.0%
Q4 2023+2.4%+4.6%+15.6%
Q3 2023+5.6%+9.1%+7.5%
Q2 2023-2.0%+0.1%+8.4%
Q1 2023+11.7%+11.1%+13.9%
Q4 2022-5.3%-4.6%-18.0%
Q3 2022-6.9%-2.0%+13.3%
Q2 2022+19.2%+9.7%+27.7%
Q1 2022-6.3%-9.7%-18.5%
Q4 2021+11.8%+16.9%+4.5%
Q3 2021-7.3%-9.1%-31.3%
Q2 2021-3.8%-5.8%-9.9%
Q1 2021+0.7%-3.4%+0.6%
Q4 2020-10.3%-7.5%-6.1%
Q3 2020-5.5%+0.2%+7.7%
Q2 2020-8.3%-10.7%-18.9%
Q1 2020-15.0%-9.4%+18.8%
Q4 2019+4.3%+7.9%-24.9%
Q3 2019+6.4%+9.2%+23.0%
Q2 2019-12.6%-15.5%-21.1%
Q1 2019+3.2%-5.1%-13.2%
Q4 2018+9.7%+6.8%+20.3%
Q3 2018+11.6%+13.1%+4.3%
Q2 2018-9.0%-7.3%-6.9%
Q1 2018-0.9%+1.1%+17.5%
Q4 2017+3.0%+1.5%+8.4%
Q3 2017+0.0%+3.6%-4.8%
Q2 2017-0.8%-3.6%+4.5%
Q1 2017+6.8%+7.5%+5.1%
Q4 2016+17.3%+9.3%+16.3%
Q3 2016+7.3%+17.2%+23.6%
Q2 2016-6.3%-11.0%-21.0%
Q1 2016-7.2%
Q4 2015-8.3%
Q3 2015-2.6%
Q2 2015-12.4%
Q1 2015+13.3%
Q4 2014-7.3%
Q3 2014-1.6%
Q2 2014+1.4%
Q1 2014-10.3%
Q3 2013+3.2%
Q2 2013+6.4%
Q4 2013
Q3 2012
Q2 2012
Q1 2012

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