NYSE$WTM

White Mountains Insurance Group Ltd · Q3 2020 earnings

Q3 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported an increase in book value per share and adjusted book value per share, driven by investment portfolio performance and MediaAlpha's increased fair value.

White Mountains reported strong Q3 2020 results, with significant increases in book value per share and adjusted book value per share. The investment portfolio performed well, and the company benefited from the increased fair value of its investment in MediaAlpha. The company also announced a transaction with Ark, expected to close in January 2021, and celebrated the successful IPO of MediaAlpha.

  • Book value per share and adjusted book value per share both increased 8% in Q3 2020.
  • Investment portfolio returned 2.8% in Q3 2020, with positive contributions from both equity and fixed income markets.
  • BAM wrote $30 million of total premiums and member surplus contributions, reflecting elevated demand for bond insurance.
  • NSM saw 3% quarter over quarter growth in pro forma controlled premiums and 1% quarter over quarter growth in pro forma adjusted EBITDA.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$460M

Previous: -$59.2M+876.2%
EPS (adj)

$75.32

Previous: $15.01+401.8%
Free Cash Flow

$233M

Previous: -$140M+266.8%
Net Income

$233M

Previous: -$140M+266.8%
Operating Income

$333M

Previous: -$77.2M+531.3%
Gross Profit

$457M

Previous: -$59.2M+872.3%
Cash & Equivalents

$215M

Previous: $136M+57.5%
Total Assets

$4.38B

Previous: $3.74B+17.2%

Revenue & EPS history

White Mountains · Revenue · Quarterly

$460M

Q3 2020-876.2%vs Q3 2019
Beat estimate in 9 of 14 quarters(64%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

White Mountains · $389M total across 3 segments · Q3 2020

  • Other Operations
    $358M
  • Asset Management
    $16.3M
  • Financial Guarantee
    $14.5M

Forward guidance

White Mountains expects the Ark transaction to close in January 2021 and anticipates further capital deployments in the coming quarters.

Tailwinds

  • Ark transaction remains on track for a January 2021 closing.
  • Partnership with Ian Beaton and Nick Bonnar is expected to create a significant market opportunity.
  • Successful IPO of MediaAlpha unlocked tremendous shareholder value.
  • Demand for bond insurance remained elevated.
  • Kudu's diversified portfolio continues to demonstrate durability.

Headwinds

  • COVID-19 pandemic is negatively impacting the finances of municipalities.
  • Financial stress could emerge over time.
  • Decline in the U.K. where NSM is repositioning the business for growth during the COVID-19 pandemic and beyond.
  • Lower investment returns at HG Global.
  • Lower investment returns at BAM.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2020

Historical avgQ3 2020

+0.3%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.9%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.3%

Avg return

30 days after

51%

34 / 67 earnings

Positive

+8.3%

Q1 2022

Best reaction

-4.2%

Q2 2012

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-0.8%-0.9%-4.2%
Q4 2025+2.5%+0.8%+1.8%
Q3 2025-0.2%+1.5%+7.2%
Q1 2025+0.9%-0.8%-2.7%
Q4 2024-3.4%-7.3%-4.4%
Q3 2024+5.8%+7.4%+11.8%
Q2 2024-3.0%-4.5%+0.2%
Q1 2024-1.4%-6.1%-6.1%
Q4 2023+1.3%+6.1%+9.4%
Q3 2023-0.4%+3.3%+0.1%
Q2 2023-0.5%+0.1%-1.7%
Q1 2023+0.3%-1.9%-0.8%
Q4 2022+1.8%+2.6%-6.7%
Q3 2022+0.8%-1.3%-3.7%
Q2 2022+0.9%+3.6%+10.1%
Q1 2022+8.3%+7.6%+19.3%
Q4 2021+2.0%+2.1%+1.7%
Q3 2021+2.5%+2.7%-6.3%
Q2 2021+1.7%+1.1%-0.2%
Q1 2021-3.2%-4.0%-8.7%
Q4 2020+3.0%+9.6%+10.3%
Q3 2020+0.4%-2.5%+3.8%
Q2 2020+7.7%+3.2%-0.2%
Q4 2019+0.5%+0.8%-11.8%
Q3 2019+0.8%+1.7%+1.6%
Q2 2019+1.7%+2.7%+1.1%
Q1 2019-0.9%+2.7%+5.5%
Q4 2018+1.1%+3.3%+2.9%
Q3 2018+1.0%+0.8%+6.1%
Q2 2018+0.3%+0.7%-1.3%
Q1 2018-0.0%-0.4%+4.2%
Q4 2017-3.0%+0.1%+2.6%
Q3 2017+1.8%+0.4%-1.1%
Q2 2017-0.5%-1.3%+2.0%
Q1 2017+1.7%+0.8%+1.3%
Q4 2016-2.0%-1.2%+1.5%
Q3 2016-0.2%-0.3%+3.2%
Q2 2016+0.6%+1.1%+0.9%
Q1 2016-0.1%
Q4 2015+6.0%
Q3 2015-3.8%
Q2 2015+3.5%
Q1 2015-0.1%
Q4 2014-1.2%
Q3 2014-1.8%
Q2 2014-0.2%
Q1 2014+0.3%
Q4 2013-0.3%
Q3 2013+0.4%
Q2 2013-0.2%
Q1 2013-0.4%
Q4 2012+0.0%
Q3 2012+0.1%
Q2 2012-4.2%
Q1 2012+1.9%
Q4 2011-0.4%
Q3 2011-3.6%
Q2 2011+0.7%
Q1 2010-2.0%
Q1 2011+1.4%
Q4 2008-0.8%
Q4 2010-0.8%
Q3 2010+1.4%
Q3 2009+1.4%
Q2 2010-1.8%
Q4 2009-1.8%
Q2 2009-1.8%

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