NYSE$TX

Ternium SA-ADR · Q4 2024 earnings

Q4 2024 earnings · · After market close · Investor relations

Briefing

Ternium reported a decline in revenue and profitability due to lower steel prices and weaker demand across key markets.

Ternium's Q4 2024 results showed a 21.4% YoY revenue decline to $3.88B, with net income at $333M, including a $404M provision reversal. Adjusted EPS was -$0.42 per ADS, reflecting a challenging steel market. The company expects a slight EBITDA improvement in Q1 2025 due to lower costs and stable shipments.

  • Revenue declined 21.4% YoY to $3.88B due to lower steel prices and weaker demand.
  • Net income was $333M, but adjusted net loss was $71M, excluding a $404M provision reversal.
  • Adjusted EPS was -$0.42 per ADS, reflecting margin pressures.
  • Ternium expects a slight sequential EBITDA improvement in Q1 2025 driven by cost reductions.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$3.83B

Previous: $4.95B-22.5%
EPS (adj)

-$0.42

Previous: $2.11-119.9%
Capital Expenditures

-$600M

Previous: -$811M+26.0%
Net Income

$278M

Previous: $415M-33.1%
Operating Income

$76.2M

Previous: $462M-83.5%
Gross Profit

$445M

Previous: $895M-50.3%

Revenue & EPS history

Ternium · Revenue · Quarterly

$3.83B

Q4 2024-22.5%vs Q4 2023
Beat estimate in 7 of 12 quarters(58%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Ternium · $3.93B total across 2 segments · Q1 2026

  • Steel
    $3.81B
  • Mining
    $120M

Forward guidance

Ternium expects a slight sequential increase in adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2025, supported by cost reductions and stable shipments in key markets. However, uncertainty around US trade policies may impact Mexico’s steel demand.

Tailwinds

  • Expected improvement in EBITDA due to lower input costs.
  • Stable shipments anticipated in Mexico and Argentina.
  • Volume recovery expected in Brazil.
  • Pesquería industrial center expansion progressing as planned.
  • New wind farm in Argentina fully operational, reducing electricity costs.

Headwinds

  • Continued pressure from lower steel prices.
  • US trade policy uncertainty affecting Mexico’s demand outlook.
  • Seasonal fluctuations may impact shipments.
  • High-cost inventory still affecting margins.
  • Macroeconomic volatility in key Latin American markets.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2024

Historical avgQ4 2024

+1.4%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.1%

Avg return

5 days after

-1.3%

Avg return

30 days after

55%

35 / 64 earnings

Positive

+11.9%

Q3 2022

Best reaction

-15.6%

Q3 2021

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-2.1%-6.6%-0.9%
Q4 2025+0.9%+0.2%-13.3%
Q3 2025-6.0%-3.8%-2.4%
Q2 2025+3.8%-2.8%+5.0%
Q1 2025-2.3%+0.4%-7.3%
Q4 2024-4.0%-5.3%+0.8%
Q3 2024+6.3%-5.4%-13.4%
Q2 2024-3.4%-8.0%-5.5%
Q1 2024+0.1%+1.1%+1.5%
Q4 2023+8.0%+5.8%+9.1%
Q3 2023-3.5%-2.9%+4.8%
Q2 2023-8.4%-7.9%-6.4%
Q1 2023+1.3%+4.1%-8.0%
Q4 2022+8.2%+7.9%+5.7%
Q3 2022+11.9%+10.3%+14.2%
Q2 2022-2.6%-1.2%-15.4%
Q1 2022+3.7%+2.6%+6.6%
Q4 2021-9.4%-12.6%-0.4%
Q3 2021-15.6%-17.8%-14.7%
Q2 2021+4.6%+5.7%+10.4%
Q1 2021-1.7%-4.8%-10.0%
Q4 2020+3.4%-2.8%+14.0%
Q3 2020+0.5%+9.3%+44.6%
Q2 2020+7.7%+11.6%+24.0%
Q1 2020+5.7%-8.9%+11.3%
Q4 2019-4.9%-3.6%-49.0%
Q3 2019+5.1%+5.3%+10.7%
Q2 2019-5.7%-6.5%-21.8%
Q1 2019+7.8%+7.8%+0.5%
Q4 2018-5.8%-2.7%-10.4%
Q3 2018+9.7%+11.4%-0.1%
Q2 2018-0.5%-2.0%-23.8%
Q1 2018+11.3%+4.6%-0.5%
Q4 2017-0.3%+0.0%-13.1%
Q3 2017-5.5%-7.4%-9.8%
Q2 2017-1.2%-2.6%-0.6%
Q1 2017-1.8%-0.8%+1.3%
Q4 2016+10.7%+8.7%+11.0%
Q3 2016+9.8%+14.1%+6.9%
Q2 2016+9.6%+7.9%-6.1%
Q1 2016+6.0%
Q4 2015+9.6%
Q3 2015+11.9%
Q1 2015-2.3%
Q4 2014-0.3%
Q3 2014-9.6%
Q2 2014-6.6%
Q4 2013-3.2%
Q1 2014-3.2%
Q3 2013+3.8%
Q2 2013-0.2%
Q4 2012+9.9%
Q1 2013-2.9%
Q3 2012+0.2%
Q2 2012-7.4%
Q4 2011+9.6%
Q1 2012+3.9%
Q3 2011+5.5%
Q2 2011+3.3%
Q4 2010+4.8%
Q1 2011+4.5%
Q3 2010+6.5%
Q2 2010-1.3%
Q1 2010+0.7%

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