NYSE$THS

TreeHouse Foods Inc. · Q4 2019 earnings

Q4 2019 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported fourth quarter results within guidance range and issued 2020 guidance.

TreeHouse Foods reported Q4 2019 earnings per diluted share of $0.27, with adjusted earnings per diluted share at $1.10, falling within the company's guidance. The company issued 2020 guidance for adjusted earnings per diluted share of $2.40 to $2.65.

  • Earnings per diluted share from continuing operations was $0.27 compared to loss per diluted share of $(0.08) for the same period in 2018.
  • Adjusted earnings per diluted share from continuing operations was $1.10, within the Company's guidance range of $1.03 to $1.23.
  • Adjusted EBIT margin expanded 90 basis points to 6.2%.
  • Adjusted earnings per share growth of 21% to $2.39.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.14B

Previous: $1.48B-23.0%
EPS (adj)

$1.10

Previous: $1.03+6.8%
Adjusted EBITDAs

$161M

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

$37.2M

Previous: $57.1M-34.9%
Free Cash Flow

$225M

Previous: $178M+26.2%
Net Income

$15.3M

Previous: -$12.6M+221.4%
Operating Income

$31.9M

Previous: $42.5M-24.9%
Gross Profit

$225M

Previous: $260M-13.5%
Cash & Equivalents

$202M

Previous: $164M+23.1%
Total Assets

$5.14B

Previous: $5.63B-8.7%
Stock-Based Comp

$5.1M

Previous: $4.2M+21.4%

Revenue & EPS history

TreeHouse · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.14B

Q4 2019-23%vs Q4 2018
Beat estimate in 12 of 16 quarters(75%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

TreeHouse provided 2020 guidance with adjusted earnings per diluted share from continuing operations of $2.40 to $2.65 and net sales between $4.10 to $4.40 billion.

Tailwinds

  • Second half 2020 revenue is anticipated to accelerate to 2% to 3% growth driven by innovation
  • Second half 2020 revenue is anticipated to accelerate to 2% to 3% growth driven by new business wins in Meal Solutions and Baked Goods
  • Adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations between $480 to $510 million
  • Effective tax rate of 22% to 24%
  • Free cash flow of $250 to $300 million, with the priority for cash proceeds to reduce debt

Headwinds

  • First half 2020 revenue expected to decline 3% to 5%
  • Revenue loss from the prior year that will carry over into 2020 is approximately $175 - $200 million
  • Net interest expense between $93 and $97 million
  • Pivot to growth is taking longer than originally anticipated
  • Carryover impact of business that was lost last year

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 15 quarterly earnings reports

Historical avg

-1.1%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.5%

Avg return

5 days after

-1.9%

Avg return

30 days after

43%

29 / 67 earnings

Positive

+23.3%

Q3 2025

Best reaction

-36.5%

Q3 2017

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q4 2025
Q3 2025+23.3%+25.9%+25.4%
Q2 2025-6.5%-3.5%-10.7%
Q1 2025-5.5%-3.5%-6.6%
Q4 2024-0.6%-8.4%-15.2%
Q3 2024-15.1%-12.9%-8.5%
Q2 2024-5.1%+0.4%+5.1%
Q1 2024-4.7%-5.2%-0.9%
Q4 2023-14.2%-14.1%-14.1%
Q3 2023-9.0%-8.8%-2.8%
Q2 2023-9.9%-8.9%-14.0%
Q1 2023-1.4%-4.1%-10.4%
Q4 2022-1.4%+1.1%-2.1%
Q3 2022-2.5%-2.6%-2.1%
Q2 2022+8.0%+11.4%+3.5%
Q1 2022+22.7%+27.0%+28.1%
Q4 2021+15.4%+14.8%-5.6%
Q3 2021+3.9%
Q2 2021-6.3%
Q1 2021+0.8%
Q4 2020-2.5%
Q3 2020-6.0%
Q2 2020-4.6%
Q1 2020+5.2%
Q4 2019-0.7%
Q3 2019-11.0%
Q2 2019-3.8%
Q1 2019-13.0%
Q4 2018+0.0%
Q3 2018-1.9%
Q2 2018+8.6%
Q1 2018+20.6%
Q4 2017-11.0%
Q3 2017-36.5%
Q2 2017-11.6%
Q1 2017-12.1%
Q4 2016+12.1%
Q3 2016-20.5%
Q2 2016-1.5%
Q1 2016+8.1%
Q4 2015+2.4%
Q3 2015+1.3%
Q2 2015-3.0%
Q1 2015-10.4%
Q4 2014-9.8%
Q3 2014-5.8%
Q2 2014+3.1%
Q1 2014-4.0%
Q4 2013+10.7%
Q3 2013-2.1%
Q2 2013+4.0%
Q1 2013-0.0%
Q4 2012+11.0%
Q3 2012-1.8%
Q2 2012-12.7%
Q1 2012+0.1%
Q4 2008+2.1%
Q4 2011+2.1%
Q3 2011-1.7%
Q2 2011+2.8%
Q1 2010+0.7%
Q1 2011+2.2%
Q4 2010-0.5%
Q3 2009+5.9%
Q3 2010+5.9%
Q4 2009+4.4%
Q2 2009+4.4%
Q2 2010+4.4%

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