NYSE$THS

TreeHouse Foods Inc. · Q3 2020 earnings

Q3 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported third quarter results with adjusted EPS exceeding expectations and organic topline improvement in Snacking & Beverages division.

TreeHouse Foods reported a decrease in net sales by 1.1% to $1.05 billion, but adjusted EPS increased by 29% to $0.71. The Snacking & Beverages division saw a 5.2% organic topline improvement. The company tightened its full year guidance for revenue and adjusted earnings.

  • Third quarter earnings per diluted share from continuing operations was $0.20 compared to a loss of $(1.08) for the same period in 2019.
  • Adjusted earnings per diluted share from continuing operations was $0.71 compared to $0.55 for the same period in 2019, representing an increase of 29%.
  • TreeHouse tightened its full year 2020 guidance to $2.65 - $2.75 for adjusted earnings per diluted share from continuing operations and tightened revenue guidance of $4.20 to $4.40 billion.
  • The Company continues to anticipate free cash flow to be at the upper end of its original guidance range of $250 to $300 million.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.05B

Previous: $1.06B-1.1%
EPS (adj)

$0.71

Previous: $0.55+29.1%
Capital Expenditures

-$67.2M

Previous: -$85.5M+21.4%
Free Cash Flow

$55.7M

Previous: -$39.8M+239.9%
Net Income

$12.1M

Previous: -$178M+106.8%
Operating Income

$39.8M

Previous: -$55.6M+171.6%
Gross Profit

$188M

Previous: $186M+1.0%
Cash & Equivalents

$365M

Previous: $45.1M+709.5%
Total Assets

$5.39B

Previous: $5.26B+2.4%
Stock-Based Comp

$5.8M

Previous: $4.7M+23.4%

Revenue & EPS history

TreeHouse · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.05B

Q3 2020-1.1%vs Q3 2019
Beat estimate in 12 of 16 quarters(75%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

TreeHouse tightened its full year 2020 guidance range for revenue and adjusted earnings from continuing operations, and provided fourth quarter 2020 guidance.

Tailwinds

  • Full year 2020 net sales between $4.20 to $4.40 billion, with $1.11 to $1.17 billion expected to be recognized in the fourth quarter
  • Adjusted earnings per diluted share from continuing operations of $2.65 to $2.75, with $1.00 to $1.10 in the fourth quarter
  • Adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations of $490 to $510 million, with $140 to $160 million in the fourth quarter
  • Free cash flow at the upper end of the $250 to $300 million guidance range
  • Looking beyond 2020, we remain confident in the private label opportunity and believe at-home food consumption demand will remain elevated.

Headwinds

  • The guidance does not contemplate contribution from the proposed pasta acquisition in 2020
  • We believe our fourth quarter guidance appropriately captures the range of outcomes related to the uncertainty around the impact of a COVID-19 resurgence on at-home food consumption
  • COVID-19-related challenges, such as a tighter labor market
  • The potential for supply limitations
  • Consumers begin to feel the impact of the economic recession

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 15 quarterly earnings reports

Historical avg

-1.1%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.5%

Avg return

5 days after

-1.9%

Avg return

30 days after

43%

29 / 67 earnings

Positive

+23.3%

Q3 2025

Best reaction

-36.5%

Q3 2017

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q4 2025
Q3 2025+23.3%+25.9%+25.4%
Q2 2025-6.5%-3.5%-10.7%
Q1 2025-5.5%-3.5%-6.6%
Q4 2024-0.6%-8.4%-15.2%
Q3 2024-15.1%-12.9%-8.5%
Q2 2024-5.1%+0.4%+5.1%
Q1 2024-4.7%-5.2%-0.9%
Q4 2023-14.2%-14.1%-14.1%
Q3 2023-9.0%-8.8%-2.8%
Q2 2023-9.9%-8.9%-14.0%
Q1 2023-1.4%-4.1%-10.4%
Q4 2022-1.4%+1.1%-2.1%
Q3 2022-2.5%-2.6%-2.1%
Q2 2022+8.0%+11.4%+3.5%
Q1 2022+22.7%+27.0%+28.1%
Q4 2021+15.4%+14.8%-5.6%
Q3 2021+3.9%
Q2 2021-6.3%
Q1 2021+0.8%
Q4 2020-2.5%
Q3 2020-6.0%
Q2 2020-4.6%
Q1 2020+5.2%
Q4 2019-0.7%
Q3 2019-11.0%
Q2 2019-3.8%
Q1 2019-13.0%
Q4 2018+0.0%
Q3 2018-1.9%
Q2 2018+8.6%
Q1 2018+20.6%
Q4 2017-11.0%
Q3 2017-36.5%
Q2 2017-11.6%
Q1 2017-12.1%
Q4 2016+12.1%
Q3 2016-20.5%
Q2 2016-1.5%
Q1 2016+8.1%
Q4 2015+2.4%
Q3 2015+1.3%
Q2 2015-3.0%
Q1 2015-10.4%
Q4 2014-9.8%
Q3 2014-5.8%
Q2 2014+3.1%
Q1 2014-4.0%
Q4 2013+10.7%
Q3 2013-2.1%
Q2 2013+4.0%
Q1 2013-0.0%
Q4 2012+11.0%
Q3 2012-1.8%
Q2 2012-12.7%
Q1 2012+0.1%
Q4 2008+2.1%
Q4 2011+2.1%
Q3 2011-1.7%
Q2 2011+2.8%
Q1 2010+0.7%
Q1 2011+2.2%
Q4 2010-0.5%
Q3 2009+5.9%
Q3 2010+5.9%
Q4 2009+4.4%
Q2 2009+4.4%
Q2 2010+4.4%

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