NYSE$SLVM

Sylvamo Corp. · Q4 2021 earnings

Q4 2021 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Sylvamo released fourth-quarter results with strong earnings and cash flow.

Sylvamo reported strong fourth-quarter earnings with adjusted EBITDA of $170 million and free cash flow of $162 million. The company used the cash flow to reduce debt by $124 million and increase cash on hand by $48 million.

  • Net income was $62 million ($1.41 per diluted share).
  • Adjusted operating earnings (non-GAAP) were $75 million ($1.71 per diluted share).
  • Adjusted EBITDA (non-GAAP) was $170 million (17.5% margin).
  • Free cash flow (non-GAAP) was $162 million.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$972M

Previous: $257M+278.2%
EPS (adj)

$1.71

Previous: $3.85-55.6%
Adjusted EBITDA

$170M

Previous: $112M+51.8%
Free cash flow

$162M

Previous: $118M+37.3%
Effective tax rate

38.0%

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

$22M

Previous: $16M+37.5%
Net Income

$62M

Previous: $65M-4.6%
Operating Income

$123M

No prior period
Gross Profit

$294M

Previous: $257M+14.4%
Cash & Equivalents

$180M

Previous: $70M+157.1%
Total Assets

$2.6B

Previous: $2.91B-10.8%
Stock-Based Comp

$4M

Previous: $4M+0.0%

Revenue & EPS history

Sylvamo · Revenue · Quarterly

$972M

Q4 2021+278.2%vs Q4 2020
Beat estimate in 5 of 9 quarters(56%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Sylvamo · $989M total across 3 segments · Q4 2021

  • North America
    $463M+23.1%
  • Europe
    $297M+24.3%
  • Latin America
    $229M+15.7%

Forward guidance

Sylvamo projects first-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $180 to $190 million and adjusted operating earnings per share of $1.70 to $1.90.

Tailwinds

  • Price and mix are expected to improve by $35 to $40 million compared to the fourth quarter, reflecting continued realization of prior price increases in all regions
  • Maintenance outage expenses are projected to decrease by $31 million, reflecting fewer outages during the winter months in the northern hemisphere.
  • Global industry demand continued to recover and we expect this to continue in 2022 as more white-collar workers return to their offices.
  • In the first quarter, we expect price and mix to further improve, reflecting continued realization of prior price increases in all three regions and our focus on commercial excellence.
  • Our mills ran well and we executed extensive maintenance outages in our Eastover and Saillat mills safely, efficiently and on budget.

Headwinds

  • Volume is expected to be down by $13 to $18 million, reflecting seasonally weaker demand in Latin America and Eastern Europe
  • Operations and costs are expected to increase by $18 to $20 million, reflecting the non-repeat of $7 million favorable overhead benefits and environmental credits in Europe and a $10 million favorable North America LIFO adjustment, both in the fourth quarter
  • Input and transportation costs are projected to increase by $18 to $23 million due to higher fiber, chemicals and transportation costs
  • We also project $8 million in costs related to transition service agreements in the quarter
  • We also project $15 million of one-time costs

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2021

Historical avgQ4 2021

+1.2%

Avg return

Earnings day

+2.5%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.1%

Avg return

30 days after

59%

13 / 22 earnings

Positive

+23.3%

Q4 2023

Best reaction

-17.0%

Q2 2023

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-3.2%-12.5%-12.3%
Q4 2025+5.1%-9.5%-20.3%
Q3 2025+0.1%+8.7%+13.1%
Q1 2025-12.6%-6.1%-10.6%
Q4 2024-7.3%-5.2%-14.1%
Q3 2024-14.7%-11.4%-6.5%
Q2 2024+11.3%+13.0%+10.3%
Q1 2024+2.7%+6.1%+6.0%
Q4 2023+23.3%+20.8%+24.7%
Q3 2023+7.4%+10.5%+18.4%
Q2 2023-17.0%-16.4%-15.6%
Q1 2023-7.9%-7.3%-5.2%
Q4 2022-1.3%-1.1%+2.9%
Q3 2022+8.4%+13.7%+32.3%
Q2 2022+3.0%+4.9%-8.0%
Q1 2021+6.7%+8.7%+4.1%
Q1 2022+14.4%+20.7%+19.4%
Q2 2021-5.0%-8.8%+1.5%
Q4 2019-5.0%-8.8%+1.5%
Q4 2021+7.1%+13.6%-2.9%
Q4 2020+6.5%+10.1%+1.3%
Q3 2021+4.2%+11.0%+5.6%
Q3 2020
Q2 2020
Q1 2020

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