NYSE$SLVM

Sylvamo Corp. · Q2 2023 earnings

Q2 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Sylvamo's Q2 2023 earnings met guidance, but slower demand recovery drove a revised annual outlook.

Sylvamo's second quarter earnings per share and adjusted EBITDA objectives were achieved despite challenging market conditions and planned maintenance outages. The company returned $41 million of cash to shareowners through dividends and share repurchases. The adjusted EBITDA projection for 2023 was revised to $560 million to $600 million, and the free cash flow projection was revised to $220 million to $250 million.

  • Net income from continuing operations was $49 million ($1.14 per diluted share).
  • Adjusted operating earnings (non-GAAP) were $49 million ($1.14 per diluted share).
  • Adjusted EBITDA (non-GAAP) was $124 million (13.5% margin).
  • Cash provided by operating activities from continuing operations was $77 million.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$919M

Previous: $912M+0.8%
EPS (adj)

$1.14

Previous: $2.02-43.6%
Adjusted EBITDA

$124M

Previous: $189M-34.4%
Free cash flow

$33M

Previous: $39M-15.4%
Effective tax rate

0.3%

Previous: 28.0%-98.9%
Capital Expenditures

-$105M

Previous: -$59M-78.0%
Net Income

$49M

Previous: -$59M+183.1%
Operating Income

-$786M

Previous: -$641M-22.6%
Gross Profit

-$719M

Previous: -$560M-28.4%
Cash & Equivalents

$164M

Previous: $157M+4.5%
Total Assets

$2.82B

Previous: $2.74B+3.0%
Stock-Based Comp

$8M

Previous: $7M+14.3%

Revenue & EPS history

Sylvamo · Revenue · Quarterly

$919M

Q2 2023+0.8%vs Q2 2022
Beat estimate in 9 of 15 quarters(60%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Sylvamo · $934M total across 3 segments · Q2 2023

  • North America
    $474M-13.7%
  • Latin America
    $250M+0.4%
  • Europe
    $210M+55.6%

Forward guidance

Sylvamo projects adjusted EBITDA of $130 million to $150 million for the third quarter. The company now projects adjusted EBITDA of $560 million to $600 million and free cash flow of $220 million to $250 million for 2023.

Tailwinds

  • Volume is projected to improve by $15 million to $20 million, with seasonally stronger volume in Latin America and North America
  • Input and transportation costs are projected to improve by $15 million to $20 million, with favorable trends in fiber and chemicals.
  • Total planned maintenance outage expenses are expected to decrease by $54 million
  • Sylvamo expects to reduce costs and working capital to maximize earnings and free cash flow in the second half of the year.
  • The company will continue implementing its three-pronged strategy of commercial excellence, operational excellence and financial discipline.

Headwinds

  • Price and mix are expected to decrease by $60 million to $65 million.
  • Operations and other costs are expected to increase by $5 million to $10 million, mainly due to unabsorbed fixed costs while matching paper production with Sylvamo customer demand.
  • Lower paper demand and inventory channel corrections in Europe and North America.
  • Updated views on pulp and paper price and mix.
  • Higher unabsorbed fixed costs.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q2 2023

Historical avgQ2 2023

+1.2%

Avg return

Earnings day

+2.5%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.1%

Avg return

30 days after

59%

13 / 22 earnings

Positive

+23.3%

Q4 2023

Best reaction

-17.0%

Q2 2023

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-3.2%-12.5%-12.3%
Q4 2025+5.1%-9.5%-20.3%
Q3 2025+0.1%+8.7%+13.1%
Q1 2025-12.6%-6.1%-10.6%
Q4 2024-7.3%-5.2%-14.1%
Q3 2024-14.7%-11.4%-6.5%
Q2 2024+11.3%+13.0%+10.3%
Q1 2024+2.7%+6.1%+6.0%
Q4 2023+23.3%+20.8%+24.7%
Q3 2023+7.4%+10.5%+18.4%
Q2 2023-17.0%-16.4%-15.6%
Q1 2023-7.9%-7.3%-5.2%
Q4 2022-1.3%-1.1%+2.9%
Q3 2022+8.4%+13.7%+32.3%
Q2 2022+3.0%+4.9%-8.0%
Q1 2021+6.7%+8.7%+4.1%
Q1 2022+14.4%+20.7%+19.4%
Q2 2021-5.0%-8.8%+1.5%
Q4 2019-5.0%-8.8%+1.5%
Q4 2021+7.1%+13.6%-2.9%
Q4 2020+6.5%+10.1%+1.3%
Q3 2021+4.2%+11.0%+5.6%
Q3 2020
Q2 2020
Q1 2020

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