NYSE$SLVM

Sylvamo Corp. · Q3 2024 earnings

Q3 2024 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Sylvamo's Q3 2024 earnings surpassed expectations, driven by strong free cash flow generation.

Sylvamo reported strong Q3 2024 earnings with a 20% adjusted EBITDA margin and outstanding free cash flow, driven by solid operational performance, good commercial execution, and stable input costs. Net income was $95 million, or $2.27 per diluted share, and adjusted EBITDA was $193 million.

  • Net income reached $95 million ($2.27 per diluted share) compared to $83 million ($1.98 per diluted share) in the previous quarter.
  • Adjusted EBITDA stood at $193 million (20% margin) versus $164 million (18% margin) in the previous quarter.
  • Cash from operating activities amounted to $163 million compared to $115 million in the previous quarter.
  • Free cash flow reached $119 million compared to $62 million in the previous quarter.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$965M

Previous: $897M+7.6%
EPS

$2.27

Previous: $1.70+33.5%
Capital Expenditures

-$157M

Previous: -$147M-6.8%
Free Cash Flow

-$62M

Previous: -$89M+30.3%
Net Income

$95M

Previous: $58M+63.8%
Operating Income

-$761M

Previous: -$753M-1.1%
Gross Profit

-$696M

Previous: -$660M-5.5%
Total Assets

$2.86B

Previous: $2.79B+2.7%
Stock-Based Comp

$5M

Previous: $6M-16.7%

Revenue & EPS history

Sylvamo · Revenue · Quarterly

$965M

Q3 2024+7.6%vs Q3 2023
Beat estimate in 9 of 15 quarters(60%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Sylvamo · $906M total across 3 segments · Q3 2023

  • North America
    $476M-19.2%
  • Latin America
    $246M-8.9%
  • Europe
    $184M+41.5%

Forward guidance

Sylvamo anticipates an adjusted EBITDA between $150 million and $165 million for the fourth quarter.

Tailwinds

  • Volume is projected to improve by $15 million to $20 million, with seasonally stronger volume in Latin America
  • Operations costs are expected to increase by up to $5 million due to an $8 million operating expense for a planned ten-year turbine generator maintenance event at our Eastover, South Carolina, mill, which is partially offset by better fixed cost absorption from less economic downtime in North America
  • Increase in industry demand across all regions
  • Expect recent capacity reduction announcements to lead to more favorable supply and demand balance trends in 2025
  • Confident in strategy to grow earnings and cash flow by continuing to invest in high-return projects in our mills and processes

Headwinds

  • Price and mix are expected to be unfavorable $20 million to $25 million due to pulp and paper price decreases in Europe, higher export mix in Latin America and customer mix in North America
  • Input and transportation costs are projected to increase by $5 million to $10 million, mainly due to transportation and seasonally higher energy
  • Total planned maintenance outage expenses are expected to increase by $17 million
  • Terminating a supply agreement for uncoated freesheet, bristols and specialty papers from International Paper’s Georgetown, South Carolina, mill, effective Dec. 31, 2024
  • Share repurchases of $30 million of our shares and have $120 million remaining on our $150 million share repurchase authorization from September 2023

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2024

Historical avgQ3 2024

+1.2%

Avg return

Earnings day

+2.5%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.1%

Avg return

30 days after

59%

13 / 22 earnings

Positive

+23.3%

Q4 2023

Best reaction

-17.0%

Q2 2023

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-3.2%-12.5%-12.3%
Q4 2025+5.1%-9.5%-20.3%
Q3 2025+0.1%+8.7%+13.1%
Q1 2025-12.6%-6.1%-10.6%
Q4 2024-7.3%-5.2%-14.1%
Q3 2024-14.7%-11.4%-6.5%
Q2 2024+11.3%+13.0%+10.3%
Q1 2024+2.7%+6.1%+6.0%
Q4 2023+23.3%+20.8%+24.7%
Q3 2023+7.4%+10.5%+18.4%
Q2 2023-17.0%-16.4%-15.6%
Q1 2023-7.9%-7.3%-5.2%
Q4 2022-1.3%-1.1%+2.9%
Q3 2022+8.4%+13.7%+32.3%
Q2 2022+3.0%+4.9%-8.0%
Q1 2021+6.7%+8.7%+4.1%
Q1 2022+14.4%+20.7%+19.4%
Q2 2021-5.0%-8.8%+1.5%
Q4 2019-5.0%-8.8%+1.5%
Q4 2021+7.1%+13.6%-2.9%
Q4 2020+6.5%+10.1%+1.3%
Q3 2021+4.2%+11.0%+5.6%
Q3 2020
Q2 2020
Q1 2020

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