NYSE$SLVM

Sylvamo Corp. · Q3 2023 earnings

Q3 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Sylvamo's Q3 2023 earnings exceeded expectations, driven by cost reduction measures and efficient cash flow management.

Sylvamo reported a strong third quarter with earnings exceeding expectations. The company focused on maximizing free cash flow through cost reductions, working capital management, and adjusting capital spending. They are projecting free cash flow for the year to be more than $270 million and have returned $110 million to shareowners this year.

  • Net income from continuing operations increased to $58 million ($1.37 per diluted share) from $49 million ($1.14 per diluted share) in the previous quarter.
  • Adjusted EBITDA rose to $158 million (18% margin) compared to $124 million (14% margin) in the second quarter.
  • Cash from operations increased to $197 million from $77 million in the previous quarter.
  • Free cash flow increased to $155 million from $33 million in the prior quarter.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$897M

Previous: $968M-7.3%
EPS (adj)

$1.70

Previous: $2.51-32.3%
Adjusted EBITDA

$158M

Previous: $216M-26.9%
Free cash flow

$155M

Previous: $114M+36.0%
Effective tax rate

36.0%

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

-$147M

Previous: -$91M-61.5%
Net Income

$58M

Previous: $57M+1.8%
Operating Income

-$753M

Previous: -$765M+1.6%
Gross Profit

-$660M

Previous: -$685M+3.6%
Cash & Equivalents

$194M

Previous: $163M+19.0%
Total Assets

$2.79B

Previous: $2.8B-0.4%
Stock-Based Comp

$6M

Previous: $5M+20.0%

Revenue & EPS history

Sylvamo · Revenue · Quarterly

$897M

Q3 2023-7.3%vs Q3 2022
Beat estimate in 9 of 15 quarters(60%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Sylvamo · $906M total across 3 segments · Q3 2023

  • North America
    $476M-19.2%
  • Latin America
    $246M-8.9%
  • Europe
    $184M+41.5%

Forward guidance

Sylvamo anticipates adjusted EBITDA to be between $90 million and $110 million in the fourth quarter.

Tailwinds

  • Volume is projected to improve by $20 million to $25 million, with seasonally stronger volume in Latin America and positive trends in North America.
  • The company is focused on maximizing free cash flow.
  • The company is streamlining organization and cost structures.
  • The board of directors increased regular dividend by 20%, declaring a fourth quarter $0.30 per share dividend and a special $0.30 per share dividend.
  • The board also authorized an incremental $150 million share repurchase program.

Headwinds

  • Price and mix are expected to decrease by $20 million to $25 million, primarily reflecting prior paper price decreases in Europe and unfavorable geographic mix in Latin America and North America.
  • Operations and other costs are expected to increase by $25 million to $30 million due primarily to seasonally higher costs in Europe and North America.
  • Input and transportation costs are projected to increase by $5 million to $10 million, mainly due to seasonally higher energy.
  • Total planned maintenance outage expenses are expected to increase by $25 million.
  • Lower paper prices in Europe and on exports from Latin America, as well as lower global pulp prices

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2023

Historical avgQ3 2023

+1.2%

Avg return

Earnings day

+2.5%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.1%

Avg return

30 days after

59%

13 / 22 earnings

Positive

+23.3%

Q4 2023

Best reaction

-17.0%

Q2 2023

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-3.2%-12.5%-12.3%
Q4 2025+5.1%-9.5%-20.3%
Q3 2025+0.1%+8.7%+13.1%
Q1 2025-12.6%-6.1%-10.6%
Q4 2024-7.3%-5.2%-14.1%
Q3 2024-14.7%-11.4%-6.5%
Q2 2024+11.3%+13.0%+10.3%
Q1 2024+2.7%+6.1%+6.0%
Q4 2023+23.3%+20.8%+24.7%
Q3 2023+7.4%+10.5%+18.4%
Q2 2023-17.0%-16.4%-15.6%
Q1 2023-7.9%-7.3%-5.2%
Q4 2022-1.3%-1.1%+2.9%
Q3 2022+8.4%+13.7%+32.3%
Q2 2022+3.0%+4.9%-8.0%
Q1 2021+6.7%+8.7%+4.1%
Q1 2022+14.4%+20.7%+19.4%
Q2 2021-5.0%-8.8%+1.5%
Q4 2019-5.0%-8.8%+1.5%
Q4 2021+7.1%+13.6%-2.9%
Q4 2020+6.5%+10.1%+1.3%
Q3 2021+4.2%+11.0%+5.6%
Q3 2020
Q2 2020
Q1 2020

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