NYSE$OLN

Olin Corp · Q4 2022 earnings

Q4 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Olin's Q4 2022 financial performance was announced, revealing a decrease in net income and sales compared to the same quarter last year.

Olin Corporation reported a decrease in net income for Q4 2022 to $196.6 million, or $1.43 per diluted share, compared to $306.6 million, or $1.89 per diluted share in Q4 2021. Sales also decreased to $1,977.0 million from $2,430.4 million in the same period last year. The company expects challenging global economic conditions to continue in 2023.

  • Q4 2022 net income was $196.6 million, or $1.43 per diluted share.
  • Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $441.8 million.
  • Share repurchases amounted to $1.35 billion in 2022.
  • The company anticipates 2023 adjusted EBITDA to be between $1.5 to $2.0 billion.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.98B

Previous: $2.43B-18.6%
EPS (adj)

$1.43

Previous: $2.41-40.7%
Adjusted EBITDA

$442M

Previous: $687M-35.7%
Net Debt to Adjusted EBITDA

1

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

$68.5M

Previous: $64.8M+5.7%
Free Cash Flow

$344M

Previous: $425M-19.0%
Net Income

$197M

Previous: $307M-35.9%
Operating Income

$274M

Previous: $526M-47.9%
Gross Profit

$383M

Previous: $630M-39.3%
Cash & Equivalents

$194M

Previous: $181M+7.5%
Total Assets

$8.04B

Previous: $8.52B-5.6%
Stock-Based Comp

$3.7M

Previous: $3.3M+12.1%

Revenue & EPS history

Olin · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.98B

Q4 2022-18.6%vs Q4 2021
Beat estimate in 7 of 15 quarters(47%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Olin · $1.66B total across 2 segments · Q4 2022

  • Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls
    $1.17B-5.7%
  • Epoxy
    $484M-39.1%

Forward guidance

Olin expects challenging global economic conditions to continue in 2023, anticipating full year adjusted EBITDA to be in the $1.5 to $2.0 billion range.

Tailwinds

  • Resiliency of Olin's winning model.
  • Commitment to maintain an investment-grade balance sheet.
  • Achievement of investment-grade credit ratings.
  • Expectation to continue capital allocation strategy.
  • Focus on 'value first' approach.

Headwinds

  • Chemical businesses to be tested by European and North American epoxy demand weakness.
  • Vinyls intermediate demand weakness.
  • Elevated levels of Chinese exports due to weak Chinese domestic demand.
  • Chemical businesses expect to continue at reduced operating rates.
  • Winchester business first quarter 2023 results expected to be lower than first quarter 2022 levels due to lower commercial ammunition shipments.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2022

Historical avgQ4 2022

-0.8%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.6%

Avg return

5 days after

+3.7%

Avg return

30 days after

43%

29 / 67 earnings

Positive

+12.1%

Q4 2016

Best reaction

-15.7%

Q4 2015

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+0.4%+6.2%-8.2%
Q4 2025-6.8%+13.9%+13.6%
Q3 2025-12.5%-13.8%-13.5%
Q1 2025+2.4%-5.8%-10.3%
Q3 2024-8.1%-9.3%-4.9%
Q2 2024-5.6%-4.0%-5.9%
Q1 2024+0.8%-1.5%+2.5%
Q4 2023+8.6%+5.3%+3.5%
Q3 2023-6.3%-4.9%+5.6%
Q2 2023+4.4%+4.2%+4.5%
Q1 2023+4.3%+2.3%-4.8%
Q4 2022+9.1%+12.5%+4.0%
Q3 2022+5.8%+7.0%+17.0%
Q2 2022+5.7%+4.2%+14.2%
Q1 2022+9.9%+18.7%+28.0%
Q4 2021-3.6%+3.3%+2.8%
Q3 2021+8.3%+11.5%+15.7%
Q2 2021+4.6%+6.4%+8.3%
Q1 2021+1.3%+3.5%+18.4%
Q4 2020+0.3%+11.7%+29.7%
Q3 2020+10.4%+11.3%+24.3%
Q2 2020-1.0%-1.4%+5.6%
Q1 2020-12.3%-21.3%-21.0%
Q4 2019+9.2%+6.6%-7.0%
Q3 2019-5.1%+0.0%-9.1%
Q2 2019-7.5%-12.0%-17.7%
Q1 2019-6.0%-5.0%-9.7%
Q4 2018+8.1%+1.5%+0.5%
Q3 2018-2.3%+6.2%+6.2%
Q2 2018+2.4%+4.3%+7.1%
Q1 2018+2.0%+4.8%+7.1%
Q4 2017-6.1%-13.7%-8.4%
Q3 2017+3.2%+0.2%-0.2%
Q2 2017-0.2%+3.4%+6.0%
Q1 2017-5.0%-8.1%-7.9%
Q4 2016+12.1%+17.9%+21.1%
Q3 2016-0.1%-3.0%+18.4%
Q2 2016-1.0%-0.3%+3.5%
Q1 2016+1.7%
Q4 2015-15.7%
Q3 2015+3.9%
Q2 2015-0.9%
Q1 2015-0.3%
Q4 2014+5.1%
Q3 2014-7.2%
Q2 2014-1.5%
Q1 2014-3.2%
Q4 2013-4.0%
Q3 2013+2.0%
Q2 2013-1.8%
Q1 2013-4.9%
Q4 2012-3.0%
Q3 2012-2.8%
Q2 2012-9.6%
Q1 2012-1.0%
Q4 2011-0.2%
Q4 2008-0.2%
Q3 2011-11.8%
Q2 2011-1.7%
Q1 2011-5.4%
Q1 2010-5.4%
Q4 2010+0.2%
Q3 2010-5.6%
Q3 2009-5.6%
Q4 2009+1.5%
Q2 2010+1.5%
Q2 2009+1.5%

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