NYSE$OLN

Olin Corp · Q1 2021 earnings

Q1 2021 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Announced first quarter results with record adjusted EBITDA and increased sales.

Olin Corporation reported a net income of $243.6 million for Q1 2021, a significant improvement compared to the net loss of $80.0 million in Q1 2020. The company achieved a record quarterly adjusted EBITDA of $540.4 million. Sales increased to $1,918.8 million from $1,425.1 million in the same quarter last year.

  • Net income was $243.6 million.
  • Record quarterly adjusted EBITDA reached $540.4 million.
  • Electrochemical Unit Profit Contribution Index improved by 39% compared to the previous quarter.
  • Winchester business delivered record quarterly segment results.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.92B

Previous: $1.43B+34.6%
EPS (adj)

$1.54

Previous: -$0.39+494.9%
Capital Expenditures

-$51.2M

Previous: -$95.9M+46.6%
Free Cash Flow

$192M

Previous: -$176M+209.4%
Net Income

$244M

Previous: -$80M+404.5%
Operating Income

$381M

Previous: -$47.5M+902.5%
Gross Profit

$495M

Previous: $50.9M+872.5%
Cash & Equivalents

$260M

Previous: $195M+33.6%
Total Assets

$8.45B

Previous: $9.18B-8.0%
Stock-Based Comp

$2M

Previous: $200K+900.0%

Revenue & EPS history

Olin · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.92B

Q1 2021+34.6%vs Q1 2020
Beat estimate in 9 of 16 quarters(56%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Olin · $1.92B total across 3 segments · Q1 2021

  • Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls
    $867M+14.1%
  • Epoxy
    $663M+38.9%
  • Winchester
    $389M

Forward guidance

Olin expects the Electrochemical Unit Profit Contribution Index (ECU PCI) to increase in Q2 2021. Winchester's second quarter segment results are expected to increase sequentially. Overall, Olin expects second quarter 2021 adjusted EBITDA to improve sequentially from first quarter 2021 levels excluding the net one-time financial benefits from Winter Storm Uri.

Tailwinds

  • Recent price increase announcements for chlorine, epichlorohydrin, epoxy resins, bleach, ethylene dichloride, chlorinated organics, and caustic soda forecast to positively contribute to ECU PCI.
  • Price increases for ammunition and primers are expected to increase Winchester second quarter segment results sequentially.
  • Expects second quarter 2021 adjusted EBITDA to improve sequentially from first quarter 2021 levels excluding the net one-time financial benefits from Winter Storm Uri.
  • Olin expects its net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio to improve to less than 2 times by year end 2021.
  • Olin is targeting debt reduction of approximately $1 billion using cash generated from operations during 2021.

Headwinds

  • Expects some volume offsets as Olin continues to selectively sell less into poor quality markets, as they remain disciplined in their approach to caustic soda.
  • Expect sequentially higher maintenance costs and unabsorbed fixed manufacturing costs of approximately $40 million associated with planned Epoxy maintenance turnarounds in second quarter 2021.
  • Sensitivity to economic, business and market conditions in the United States and overseas, including economic instability or a downturn in the sectors served by us
  • Unsuccessful implementation of our operating model, which prioritizes Electrochemical Unit (ECU) margins over sales volumes
  • Failure to attract, retain and motivate key employees

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2021

Historical avgQ1 2021

-0.8%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.6%

Avg return

5 days after

+3.7%

Avg return

30 days after

43%

29 / 67 earnings

Positive

+12.1%

Q4 2016

Best reaction

-15.7%

Q4 2015

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q2 2025
Q1 2026+0.4%+6.2%-8.2%
Q4 2025-6.8%+13.9%+13.6%
Q3 2025-12.5%-13.8%-13.5%
Q1 2025+2.4%-5.8%-10.3%
Q3 2024-8.1%-9.3%-4.9%
Q2 2024-5.6%-4.0%-5.9%
Q1 2024+0.8%-1.5%+2.5%
Q4 2023+8.6%+5.3%+3.5%
Q3 2023-6.3%-4.9%+5.6%
Q2 2023+4.4%+4.2%+4.5%
Q1 2023+4.3%+2.3%-4.8%
Q4 2022+9.1%+12.5%+4.0%
Q3 2022+5.8%+7.0%+17.0%
Q2 2022+5.7%+4.2%+14.2%
Q1 2022+9.9%+18.7%+28.0%
Q4 2021-3.6%+3.3%+2.8%
Q3 2021+8.3%+11.5%+15.7%
Q2 2021+4.6%+6.4%+8.3%
Q1 2021+1.3%+3.5%+18.4%
Q4 2020+0.3%+11.7%+29.7%
Q3 2020+10.4%+11.3%+24.3%
Q2 2020-1.0%-1.4%+5.6%
Q1 2020-12.3%-21.3%-21.0%
Q4 2019+9.2%+6.6%-7.0%
Q3 2019-5.1%+0.0%-9.1%
Q2 2019-7.5%-12.0%-17.7%
Q1 2019-6.0%-5.0%-9.7%
Q4 2018+8.1%+1.5%+0.5%
Q3 2018-2.3%+6.2%+6.2%
Q2 2018+2.4%+4.3%+7.1%
Q1 2018+2.0%+4.8%+7.1%
Q4 2017-6.1%-13.7%-8.4%
Q3 2017+3.2%+0.2%-0.2%
Q2 2017-0.2%+3.4%+6.0%
Q1 2017-5.0%-8.1%-7.9%
Q4 2016+12.1%+17.9%+21.1%
Q3 2016-0.1%-3.0%+18.4%
Q2 2016-1.0%-0.3%+3.5%
Q1 2016+1.7%
Q4 2015-15.7%
Q3 2015+3.9%
Q2 2015-0.9%
Q1 2015-0.3%
Q4 2014+5.1%
Q3 2014-7.2%
Q2 2014-1.5%
Q1 2014-3.2%
Q4 2013-4.0%
Q3 2013+2.0%
Q2 2013-1.8%
Q1 2013-4.9%
Q4 2012-3.0%
Q3 2012-2.8%
Q2 2012-9.6%
Q1 2012-1.0%
Q4 2011-0.2%
Q4 2008-0.2%
Q3 2011-11.8%
Q2 2011-1.7%
Q1 2011-5.4%
Q1 2010-5.4%
Q4 2010+0.2%
Q3 2010-5.6%
Q3 2009-5.6%
Q4 2009+1.5%
Q2 2010+1.5%
Q2 2009+1.5%

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