NYSE$OLN

Olin Corp · Q3 2023 earnings

Q3 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Announced third quarter 2023 results, reflecting net income and adjusted EBITDA.

Olin Corporation reported a net income of $104.1 million, or $0.82 per diluted share, for the third quarter of 2023. Sales were $1,671.4 million, and adjusted EBITDA was $314.8 million. The company also repurchased $202.1 million in shares during the quarter and is focusing on actions to improve 2024 performance.

  • Net income for the third quarter 2023 was $104.1 million, or $0.82 per diluted share.
  • Adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter 2023 was $314.8 million.
  • Share repurchases amounted to $202.1 million in the third quarter 2023.
  • The company is focusing on actions to improve 2024 performance.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.67B

Previous: $2.32B-28.0%
EPS (adj)

$0.82

Previous: $2.18-62.4%
Adjusted EBITDA

$315M

Previous: $548M-42.5%
Capital Expenditures

-$173M

Previous: -$168M-2.7%
Free Cash Flow

-$68.5M

Previous: $147M-146.7%
Net Income

$105M

Previous: $315M-66.8%
Operating Income

$166M

Previous: $394M-57.8%
Gross Profit

$269M

Previous: $481M-44.0%
Cash & Equivalents

$158M

Previous: $164M-3.2%
Total Assets

$7.82B

Previous: $8.22B-4.9%
Stock-Based Comp

$4.8M

Previous: $4.1M+17.1%

Revenue & EPS history

Olin · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.67B

Q3 2023-28%vs Q3 2022
Beat estimate in 7 of 15 quarters(47%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Olin · $1.29B total across 2 segments · Q3 2023

  • Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls
    $970M-23.3%
  • Epoxy
    $322M-50.1%

Forward guidance

Olin expects fourth quarter 2023 adjusted EBITDA to be in the $200 million range, with Winchester segment results similar to third quarter 2023 levels. The 'value accelerator initiative' is expected to reduce fourth quarter 2023 adjusted EBITDA outlook by approximately $100 million compared to previous expectations but should deliver an improved 2024 adjusted EBITDA compared to 2023.

Tailwinds

  • Global conditions for Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls business are approaching a favorable inflection point.
  • Winchester segment fourth quarter results expected to be similar to third quarter 2023 levels.
  • Value accelerator initiative' should deliver an improved 2024 adjusted EBITDA compared to 2023.
  • Prioritizing share repurchases from excess cash flow
  • Disciplined approach to ECU values.

Headwinds

  • Electrochemical unit (“ECU”) values have been declining in 2023.
  • The ‘value accelerator initiative’ is expected to reduce fourth quarter 2023 adjusted EBITDA outlook by approximately $100 million compared to previous expectation.
  • Contracting demand environment over the last six quarters
  • Idled St. Gabriel, Louisiana, facility and largest chlor alkali plant at Freeport, Texas facility
  • Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls third quarter 2023 segment results were also negatively impacted by higher costs and reduced profit from lost sales associated with operating issues, related to the previous quarter’s maintenance turnaround at our vinyl chloride monomer plant at the Freeport, Texas facility.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2023

Historical avgQ3 2023

-0.8%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.6%

Avg return

5 days after

+3.7%

Avg return

30 days after

43%

29 / 67 earnings

Positive

+12.1%

Q4 2016

Best reaction

-15.7%

Q4 2015

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+0.4%+6.2%-8.2%
Q4 2025-6.8%+13.9%+13.6%
Q3 2025-12.5%-13.8%-13.5%
Q1 2025+2.4%-5.8%-10.3%
Q3 2024-8.1%-9.3%-4.9%
Q2 2024-5.6%-4.0%-5.9%
Q1 2024+0.8%-1.5%+2.5%
Q4 2023+8.6%+5.3%+3.5%
Q3 2023-6.3%-4.9%+5.6%
Q2 2023+4.4%+4.2%+4.5%
Q1 2023+4.3%+2.3%-4.8%
Q4 2022+9.1%+12.5%+4.0%
Q3 2022+5.8%+7.0%+17.0%
Q2 2022+5.7%+4.2%+14.2%
Q1 2022+9.9%+18.7%+28.0%
Q4 2021-3.6%+3.3%+2.8%
Q3 2021+8.3%+11.5%+15.7%
Q2 2021+4.6%+6.4%+8.3%
Q1 2021+1.3%+3.5%+18.4%
Q4 2020+0.3%+11.7%+29.7%
Q3 2020+10.4%+11.3%+24.3%
Q2 2020-1.0%-1.4%+5.6%
Q1 2020-12.3%-21.3%-21.0%
Q4 2019+9.2%+6.6%-7.0%
Q3 2019-5.1%+0.0%-9.1%
Q2 2019-7.5%-12.0%-17.7%
Q1 2019-6.0%-5.0%-9.7%
Q4 2018+8.1%+1.5%+0.5%
Q3 2018-2.3%+6.2%+6.2%
Q2 2018+2.4%+4.3%+7.1%
Q1 2018+2.0%+4.8%+7.1%
Q4 2017-6.1%-13.7%-8.4%
Q3 2017+3.2%+0.2%-0.2%
Q2 2017-0.2%+3.4%+6.0%
Q1 2017-5.0%-8.1%-7.9%
Q4 2016+12.1%+17.9%+21.1%
Q3 2016-0.1%-3.0%+18.4%
Q2 2016-1.0%-0.3%+3.5%
Q1 2016+1.7%
Q4 2015-15.7%
Q3 2015+3.9%
Q2 2015-0.9%
Q1 2015-0.3%
Q4 2014+5.1%
Q3 2014-7.2%
Q2 2014-1.5%
Q1 2014-3.2%
Q4 2013-4.0%
Q3 2013+2.0%
Q2 2013-1.8%
Q1 2013-4.9%
Q4 2012-3.0%
Q3 2012-2.8%
Q2 2012-9.6%
Q1 2012-1.0%
Q4 2011-0.2%
Q4 2008-0.2%
Q3 2011-11.8%
Q2 2011-1.7%
Q1 2011-5.4%
Q1 2010-5.4%
Q4 2010+0.2%
Q3 2010-5.6%
Q3 2009-5.6%
Q4 2009+1.5%
Q2 2010+1.5%
Q2 2009+1.5%

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