NYSE$NNI

Nelnet Inc · Q1 2020 earnings

Q1 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Nelnet reported a GAAP net loss due to adverse economic conditions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, while core business operations performed well.

Nelnet reported a GAAP net loss of $40.5 million, or $1.01 per share, for Q1 2020, compared to a net income of $41.6 million, or $1.03 per share, for the same period last year. The decrease was primarily due to the COVID-19 pandemic, which led to an incremental provision for loan losses and impairment charges on certain investments.

  • Recognized an incremental provision for loan losses totaling $63.0 million due to an increase in expected loan defaults.
  • Recorded impairment charges totaling $34.1 million on certain investments negatively impacted by the pandemic.
  • Loan spread decreased due to a precipitous drop in interest rates.
  • Core business operations performed well despite the unique challenges brought on by the pandemic.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$246M

Previous: $265M-7.3%
EPS (adj)

$0.62

Previous: $1.61-61.5%
Total loans serviced

$477B

Previous: $472B+1.1%
Capital Expenditures

-$25.6M

Previous: -$24.8M-3.0%
Free Cash Flow

-$66.1M

Previous: $16.8M-493.9%
Net Income

-$40.5M

Previous: $41.6M-197.5%
Operating Income

-$93.3M

Previous: $12.1M-870.0%
Gross Profit

$217M

Previous: $239M-9.1%
Cash & Equivalents

$205M

No prior period
Total Assets

$23.3B

No prior period

Revenue & EPS history

Nelnet · Revenue · Quarterly

$246M

Q1 2020-7.3%vs Q1 2019
Beat estimate in 3 of 16 quarters(19%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Nelnet · $196M total across 2 segments · Q1 2020

  • Loan Servicing & Systems
    $113M-1.9%
  • EdTech & Payments
    $83.7M+5.7%

Forward guidance

Nelnet's diversification, financial strength, and liquidity will benefit it during the pandemic and resulting recession. The company will continue to evaluate the long-term impact of the pandemic and look for opportunities to invest in new initiatives.

Tailwinds

  • Strong liquidity position to invest in market opportunities.
  • Opportunities in federally insured, private education, and consumer loan acquisitions.
  • Potential for strategic acquisitions and investments.
  • Expansion of ALLO's communications network.
  • Capital management initiatives, including stock repurchases, debt repurchases, and dividend distributions.

Headwinds

  • Risks related to the severity, magnitude, and duration of the COVID-19 pandemic.
  • Risks related to maintaining and increasing allocated volumes of student loans serviced under existing and future servicing contracts with the Department of Education.
  • Risks related to the Department's initiatives to procure new contracts for federal student loan servicing.
  • Risks related to the company's loan portfolio, such as interest rate basis and repricing risk and changes in levels of loan repayment or default rates.
  • Risks and uncertainties related to the ability of ALLO to successfully expand its fiber network and market share.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2020

Historical avgQ1 2020

+0.9%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.4%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.9%

Avg return

30 days after

55%

36 / 65 earnings

Positive

+16.6%

Q3 2016

Best reaction

-11.3%

Q4 2016

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+0.5%-13.6%-8.2%
Q4 2025-1.7%+3.5%-3.6%
Q3 2025+2.2%+0.1%+0.5%
Q1 2025+5.9%+10.6%+7.7%
Q4 2024+9.3%+6.7%-0.3%
Q3 2024-9.9%-12.5%-13.1%
Q2 2024+1.1%+2.6%+4.5%
Q1 2024+12.9%+13.9%+4.1%
Q4 2023-3.7%-3.1%+7.3%
Q3 2023-0.8%-3.1%-3.9%
Q2 2023-2.1%-4.1%-7.9%
Q1 2023-1.1%-0.9%+6.8%
Q4 2022-3.0%-2.5%-3.3%
Q3 2022+1.4%+8.2%+6.9%
Q2 2022-0.2%-2.3%-11.3%
Q1 2022-1.7%-0.8%+3.9%
Q4 2021+0.0%+1.6%+5.6%
Q3 2021-0.6%+1.8%+9.7%
Q2 2021+2.8%+2.5%+8.3%
Q1 2021-1.0%+2.9%-0.1%
Q4 2020+1.0%+2.7%+3.6%
Q3 2020+3.2%+13.8%+9.1%
Q2 2020+2.2%+1.8%+5.2%
Q1 2020-1.6%-2.8%+15.2%
Q4 2019-5.5%-10.1%-24.6%
Q3 2019-3.1%-1.9%-3.0%
Q2 2019+7.8%+6.8%+5.7%
Q1 2019+8.9%+6.0%+2.1%
Q4 2018+1.5%+1.2%+2.0%
Q3 2018-8.2%-3.9%-6.6%
Q2 2018-2.9%-3.1%-4.5%
Q1 2018+8.4%+8.9%+16.0%
Q4 2017+6.9%+6.7%+1.2%
Q3 2017-10.4%-10.9%-5.9%
Q2 2017-0.6%-5.3%-0.5%
Q1 2017-5.0%-9.1%-6.9%
Q4 2016-11.3%-8.9%-15.0%
Q3 2016+16.6%+23.7%+36.2%
Q2 2016-11.1%-11.7%-9.5%
Q1 2016-5.9%
Q4 2015+2.4%
Q3 2015-4.6%
Q2 2015+5.0%
Q1 2015-4.3%
Q4 2014-0.6%
Q3 2014-0.9%
Q2 2014+6.6%
Q1 2014-3.1%
Q4 2013+11.8%
Q3 2012+4.9%
Q3 2013+4.9%
Q2 2013+5.5%
Q1 2013+0.9%
Q4 2012+3.9%
Q2 2012+3.9%
Q1 2012-1.7%
Q1 2011-1.7%
Q4 2009+1.9%
Q4 2011+1.9%
Q2 2011+1.9%
Q3 2011+1.6%
Q3 2010+1.6%
Q2 2010+4.0%
Q4 2010+4.0%
Q1 2010+9.1%

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