NYSE$LXU

LSB Industries Inc · Q4 2020 earnings

Q4 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

LSB Industries reported Q4 2020 results with increased sales volume and adjusted EBITDA despite pricing headwinds.

LSB Industries reported a 31% increase in net sales and a 44% increase in adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter of 2020, driven by stronger production and sales volumes, which offset weaker pricing and the impact of COVID-19. The company also achieved record production volumes for ammonia and UAN for the full year 2020.

  • Net sales increased by 31% due to stronger sales volumes, partially offset by an 11% decrease from weaker pricing compared to Q4 2019.
  • Adjusted EBITDA increased by 44% due to stronger production and sales volumes, offsetting the negative impacts of weaker pricing and COVID-19.
  • Fertilizer sales volumes increased by 64%, including a 105% increase in UAN sales volumes, compared to Q4 2019.
  • The company delivered record production volumes for ammonia (827,000 tons) and UAN (501,000 tons) for the full year 2020.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$88.9M

Previous: $73.9M+20.3%
EPS (adj)

-$0.86

Previous: -$0.69-24.6%
Adjusted EBITDA

$10.4M

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

$8.24M

No prior period
Free Cash Flow

-$35.5M

No prior period
Net Income

-$21.7M

Previous: -$27.7M+21.7%
Operating Income

-$10.2M

Previous: -$31.3M+67.3%
Gross Profit

-$3.47M

No prior period
Cash & Equivalents

$16.3M

Previous: $22.8M-28.6%
Total Assets

$1.05B

Previous: $1.09B-3.2%
Stock-Based Comp

$135K

No prior period

Revenue & EPS history

LSB Industries · Revenue · Quarterly

$88.9M

Q4 2020+20.3%vs Q4 2019
Beat estimate in 12 of 15 quarters(80%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

LSB Industries · $84.2M total across 3 segments · Q3 2023

  • AN & Nitric Acid
    $46M-30.4%
  • Ammonia
    $26.8M-48.5%
  • Other
    $11.3M-27.2%

Forward guidance

The company expects to deliver year-over-year improvement in production and sales volumes, which is expected to translate into improved adjusted EBITDA and cash flow for the year. They also anticipate refinancing existing debt at more favorable terms and are developing a strategy to enter the clean energy market through green ammonia production.

Tailwinds

  • Expect year-over-year improvement in production and sales volumes.
  • Anticipate improved adjusted EBITDA and cash flow for the year.
  • Expect to refinance existing debt at more favorable terms.
  • Developing a strategy to enter the clean energy market through green ammonia production.
  • Fertilizer market dynamics are strengthening, leading to higher prices.

Headwinds

  • Turnaround of approximately 30 days for the Cherokee facility during the third quarter will impact sales volumes.
  • Industrial sectors are not yet operating at pre-pandemic levels, putting selling price pressure on certain products.
  • COVID-19 pandemic continues to impact industrial and mining demand.
  • Weaker pricing for HDAN, UAN and agricultural ammonia had offset the increased production volume
  • Nitric Acid sales continue to be impacted by pandemic related market weakness

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2020

Historical avgQ4 2020

-0.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

+2.0%

Avg return

5 days after

+6.2%

Avg return

30 days after

46%

30 / 65 earnings

Positive

+34.0%

Q1 2017

Best reaction

-54.7%

Q3 2015

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-2.0%+0.7%-17.4%
Q4 2025+15.5%+19.2%+62.7%
Q3 2025-0.1%-8.3%-2.9%
Q1 2025+4.9%+4.8%+24.5%
Q4 2024-4.0%-12.7%-14.3%
Q3 2024-6.8%-5.4%-1.4%
Q2 2024+5.1%-8.3%-11.0%
Q1 2024+13.3%+3.7%+17.7%
Q4 2023+1.1%+4.1%+17.4%
Q3 2023-1.4%-8.7%-0.7%
Q2 2023+3.7%+2.1%-10.8%
Q1 2023+2.0%-1.3%+6.8%
Q4 2022+5.2%+6.4%-21.5%
Q3 2022-5.6%-5.9%-16.2%
Q2 2022+9.8%+9.2%+34.8%
Q1 2022-4.3%-12.6%-0.7%
Q4 2021+22.5%+42.5%+92.3%
Q3 2021-2.7%+2.5%+0.8%
Q2 2021+2.0%+7.6%+1.6%
Q1 2021-3.5%-5.5%-4.4%
Q4 2020+14.2%+19.3%+10.0%
Q3 2020-11.4%-1.0%+43.8%
Q2 2020+4.5%+1.8%+105.5%
Q1 2020-5.8%-19.0%-27.0%
Q4 2019-19.9%-19.1%-9.5%
Q3 2019-20.6%-16.2%-28.5%
Q2 2019+28.9%+26.4%+18.8%
Q1 2019-4.4%-5.7%-39.1%
Q4 2018-5.5%-4.1%-14.7%
Q3 2018-10.6%-13.1%-16.1%
Q2 2018-11.9%-16.5%-6.2%
Q1 2018+3.7%-1.2%-7.3%
Q4 2017+10.9%+4.0%-14.8%
Q3 2017+1.6%+4.4%+20.3%
Q2 2017-26.3%-26.7%-39.1%
Q1 2017+34.0%+53.7%+30.8%
Q4 2016+23.9%+20.5%+5.8%
Q3 2016+18.1%+39.6%+54.9%
Q2 2016+5.0%-2.6%-2.4%
Q1 2016-34.0%
Q4 2015+25.1%
Q3 2015-54.7%
Q2 2015-31.7%
Q1 2015-2.0%
Q4 2014+2.5%
Q3 2014-10.7%
Q2 2014-1.8%
Q1 2014-1.5%
Q4 2013-4.1%
Q3 2013-12.3%
Q1 2011+2.5%
Q2 2013+7.0%
Q1 2013+0.3%
Q4 2012-0.9%
Q3 2012-5.9%
Q2 2012+8.0%
Q1 2012+3.3%
Q4 2009+12.1%
Q4 2011+12.1%
Q3 2010-11.9%
Q3 2011-11.9%
Q4 2010-1.0%
Q2 2011-1.0%
Q2 2010-1.0%
Q1 2010-6.8%

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