NYSE$LUMN

Lumen Technologies Inc · Q1 2023 earnings

Q1 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Lumen's first quarter results declined year-over-year due to divestitures and the end of the CAF Phase II program, but showed positive leading indicators with strong growth products revenue performance and Quantum Fiber build progress.

Lumen Technologies reported first quarter 2023 results, with a focus on its turnaround strategy. The company saw positive leading indicators in growth products revenue and Quantum Fiber build progress. Net income was $511 million, and diluted earnings per share were $0.52. The company updated its full-year 2023 financial outlook, maintaining Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $4.6 to $4.8 billion and Free Cash Flow guidance of $0 to $200 million.

  • Business product Grow revenue increased to $1.128 billion, up from $1.091 billion in Q4 2022.
  • Quantum Fiber deployment reached approximately 120,000 fiber locations.
  • Principal debt balance reduced by $620 million through exchange offers for Lumen senior notes.
  • Generated negative Free Cash Flow of $(75) million.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$3.74B

Previous: $4.68B-20.1%
EPS (adj)

$0.10

Previous: $0.63-84.1%
Adjusted EBITDA

$1.14B

Previous: $1.91B-40.6%
Adjusted EBITDA Excluding Special Items

$1.25B

Previous: $1.97B-36.4%
Adjusted EBITDA Margin

30.4%

Previous: 40.9%-25.7%
Adjusted EBITDA Margin Excluding Special Items

33.5%

Previous: 42.0%-20.2%
Unlevered Cash Flow

$305M

Previous: $1.18B-74.2%
Unlevered Cash Flow Excluding Cash Special Items

$275M

Previous: $1.23B-77.7%
Net Income Excluding Special Items

$97M

Previous: $636M-84.7%
Capital Expenditures

$640M

Previous: $577M+10.9%
Free Cash Flow Excluding Cash Special Items

-$75M

Previous: $846M-108.9%
Free Cash Flow

$511M

Previous: $599M-14.7%
Net Income

$511M

Previous: $599M-14.7%
Operating Income

$390M

Previous: $1.08B-64.0%
Gross Profit

$1.92B

Previous: $2.69B-28.6%
Cash & Equivalents

$1.15B

Previous: $366M+213.7%
Total Assets

$45.5B

Previous: $58B-21.6%
Stock-Based Comp

$14M

Previous: $23M-39.1%

Revenue & EPS history

Lumen · Revenue · Quarterly

$3.74B

Q1 2023-20.1%vs Q1 2022
Beat estimate in 10 of 15 quarters(67%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Lumen · $6.69B total across 6 segments · Q1 2023

  • Business Segment Revenue
    $2.96B-13.1%
  • Large Enterprise
    $1.19B-17.2%
  • Wholesale
    $817M-9.9%
  • Mass Markets Segment Revenue
    $782M-38.7%
  • Mid-Market Enterprise
    $515M-10.1%
  • Public Sector
    $430M-10.2%

Forward guidance

Lumen updated its full-year 2023 financial outlook, maintaining Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $4.6 to $4.8 billion and Free Cash Flow guidance of $0 to $200 million.

Tailwinds

  • Adjusted EBITDA: $4.6 to $4.8 billion
  • Free Cash Flow: $0 to $200 million
  • Net Cash Interest: $1.1 to $1.2 billion
  • GAAP Interest Expense: $1.200 billion
  • Depreciation and Amortization: $2.9 to $3.1 billion

Headwinds

  • Capital Expenditures: $2.9 to $3.1 billion
  • Stock-based Compensation Expense: ~$125 million
  • Cash Income Taxes: ~$300 to $400 million
  • Full Year Effective Income Tax Rate: ~26%
  • Excludes approximately $1 billion impact of taxes related to our divestitures completed on August 1, 2022 and October 3, 2022.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2023

Historical avgQ1 2023

+0.5%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.8%

Avg return

5 days after

-2.0%

Avg return

30 days after

49%

33 / 68 earnings

Positive

+156.0%

Q2 2024

Best reaction

-34.2%

Q3 2023

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+4.6%-9.6%-3.6%
Q4 2025-21.6%-8.2%-21.7%
Q3 2025+14.2%+5.0%-21.6%
Q1 2025+6.9%+20.2%+11.4%
Q4 2024-1.4%-1.2%+5.2%
Q3 2024+20.6%+28.2%-13.5%
Q2 2024+156.0%+115.1%+112.4%
Q1 2024-0.8%+8.2%+4.9%
Q4 2023+12.4%+17.8%+34.1%
Q3 2023-34.2%-24.8%-12.1%
Q2 2023+0.0%-7.3%-11.2%
Q1 2023-3.8%-4.2%-18.1%
Q4 2022-21.6%-21.4%-42.9%
Q3 2022-21.9%-18.7%-25.8%
Q2 2022+0.6%+1.9%-8.5%
Q1 2022+3.2%+7.1%+11.8%
Q4 2021-14.6%-21.8%-15.8%
Q3 2021+12.2%+14.6%+1.1%
Q2 2021-7.3%-6.3%-1.5%
Q1 2021+2.3%+8.8%+12.3%
Q4 2020-8.4%-6.2%+11.7%
Q3 2020+1.9%+1.5%+15.9%
Q2 2020+6.9%+9.9%+8.9%
Q1 2020-4.9%-3.4%+8.0%
Q4 2019-7.0%-6.9%-32.2%
Q3 2019+8.9%+10.2%+3.6%
Q2 2019-10.5%-6.3%-1.3%
Q1 2019-4.8%-7.9%-7.6%
Q4 2018-12.2%-5.6%-16.9%
Q3 2018-11.9%-12.5%-18.6%
Q2 2018+12.5%+17.4%+17.7%
Q1 2018+7.0%+6.1%-2.6%
Q4 2017+11.2%+10.0%-0.5%
Q3 2017-4.6%-5.5%-9.6%
Q2 2017-3.9%-4.4%-14.2%
Q1 2017-8.5%-4.4%-0.3%
Q4 2016-1.8%-1.0%-7.0%
Q3 2016-17.8%-24.2%-22.6%
Q2 2016-1.1%-1.0%-8.7%
Q1 2016-7.8%
Q4 2015+10.0%
Q3 2015+0.8%
Q2 2015-1.8%
Q1 2015-4.1%
Q4 2014-2.2%
Q3 2014-6.3%
Q2 2014-0.9%
Q1 2014+7.0%
Q4 2013+1.5%
Q3 2013-4.7%
Q2 2013-5.0%
Q1 2013+0.5%
Q4 2012-22.7%
Q3 2012+1.9%
Q2 2012+1.6%
Q1 2012+0.2%
Q4 2010+0.6%
Q4 2011+0.6%
Q3 2011+3.6%
Q2 2011+4.9%
Q1 2010+0.8%
Q1 2011-1.7%
Q4 2008+0.2%
Q3 2010-0.7%
Q3 2009-0.7%
Q4 2009+0.2%
Q2 2010+0.2%
Q2 2009+0.2%

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