NYSE$LLY

Eli Lilly & Co · Q3 2021 earnings

Q3 2021 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported robust financial results driven by volume growth and key growth products, with advancements in pipeline events.

Eli Lilly reported a strong third quarter in 2021, with revenue increasing by 18% driven by a 17% increase in volume. Key growth products contributed significantly to revenue growth. The company also highlighted pipeline advancements, including regulatory submissions and positive Phase 3 readouts.

  • Revenue increased 18 percent, driven by volume growth of 17 percent.
  • Key growth products contributed 17 percentage points of revenue growth and represented approximately 58 percent of total revenue, excluding revenue from COVID-19 therapies.
  • Earnings per share (EPS) decreased to $1.22 on a reported basis and increased to $1.94 on a non-GAAP basis, representing 38 percent growth versus prior year.
  • Lilly submitted tirzepatide in type 2 diabetes and initiated a rolling submission for donanemab to the FDA for accelerated approval in early Alzheimer's disease.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$6.77B

Previous: $5.74B+18.0%
EPS (adj)

$1.94

Previous: $1.54+26.0%
Volume change

17.0%

Previous: 9.0%+88.9%
Gross margin

78.9%

Previous: 76.9%+2.6%
Free Cash Flow

$1.11B

Previous: $1.21B-8.1%
Net Income

$1.11B

Previous: $1.21B-8.1%
Operating Income

$2.06B

Previous: $1.28B+60.8%
Gross Profit

$5.34B

Previous: $4.41B+21.0%
Cash & Equivalents

$3.79B

Previous: $3.6B+5.4%
Total Assets

$48.2B

Previous: $43.9B+9.7%
Stock-Based Comp

$90.1M

Previous: $71.7M+25.7%

Revenue & EPS history

Eli Lilly · Revenue · Quarterly

$6.77B

Q3 2021+18%vs Q3 2020
Beat estimate in 13 of 16 quarters(81%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Eli Lilly · $2.45B total across 2 segments · Q3 2023

  • Mounjaro
    $1.41B+652.4%
  • Verzenio
    $1.04B+68.4%

Forward guidance

The company updated certain elements of its 2021 financial guidance on both a reported and non-GAAP basis.

Tailwinds

  • Revenue is now expected to be between $27.2 billion and $27.6 billion.
  • This increase reflects additional revenue from COVID-19 antibodies and the underlying core business.
  • Estimated revenue from COVID-19 antibodies is now expected to be approximately $1.3 billion.
  • Earnings per share for 2021 are now expected to be in the range of $6.38 to $6.48 on a reported basis
  • Earnings per share for 2021 are now expected to be in the range of $7.95 to $8.05 on a non-GAAP basis.

Headwinds

  • Other income (expense) for 2021 is now expected to be expense in the range of $250 million to $150 million on a reported basis
  • The company's updated reported guidance reflects the impact of the charge associated with the repurchase of higher-cost debt
  • The company's updated reported guidance reflects unfavorable mark-to-market adjustments on investments in equity securities in the third quarter of 2021.
  • The 2021 effective tax rate is now expected to be approximately 11 percent on a reported basis
  • This reflects primarily the tax impacts of the charges related to repurchase of higher-cost debt and acquired IPR&D, as well as unfavorable mark-to-market adjustments on investments in equity securities in the third quarter of 2021.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2021

Historical avgQ3 2021

+0.1%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.8%

Avg return

5 days after

+3.1%

Avg return

30 days after

43%

29 / 67 earnings

Positive

+15.9%

Q2 2023

Best reaction

-14.1%

Q2 2025

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-0.1%+16.2%+29.9%
Q4 2025+10.3%+4.1%-1.3%
Q3 2025+3.2%+11.5%+32.2%
Q2 2025-14.1%-14.3%-2.6%
Q1 2025-11.7%-13.8%-17.9%
Q4 2024+3.3%+2.7%+3.3%
Q3 2024-8.2%-10.8%-12.0%
Q2 2024+15.5%+17.6%+16.9%
Q1 2024+5.4%-0.3%+10.6%
Q4 2023+2.7%+4.8%+10.5%
Q3 2023+2.4%+8.2%+5.3%
Q2 2023+15.9%+16.3%+26.2%
Q1 2023+5.2%+7.4%+13.2%
Q4 2022-1.0%-0.8%-7.0%
Q3 2022-2.0%-1.3%+2.3%
Q2 2022-4.0%-3.4%-4.0%
Q1 2022+2.5%+1.0%+13.5%
Q4 2021-3.4%-4.4%+4.8%
Q3 2021+2.1%+4.0%+6.9%
Q2 2021+6.4%+6.8%+5.3%
Q1 2021-3.6%-2.4%+6.4%
Q4 2020-3.3%-6.3%-2.5%
Q3 2020-7.3%-7.9%+2.2%
Q2 2020-7.1%-4.3%-8.9%
Q1 2020+4.0%+0.4%-3.5%
Q4 2019-0.2%+2.5%-9.9%
Q3 2019-1.8%+2.9%+5.8%
Q2 2019+0.2%+3.4%+3.2%
Q1 2019-1.2%-2.2%-3.1%
Q4 2018-2.4%-2.0%+5.2%
Q3 2018-0.4%+1.9%+5.2%
Q2 2018+8.5%+8.7%+17.9%
Q1 2018+1.2%+3.2%+3.1%
Q4 2017-4.3%-10.0%-10.3%
Q3 2017-2.7%-3.8%-4.0%
Q2 2017-3.4%-1.9%-6.9%
Q1 2017-2.9%-1.6%-6.1%
Q4 2016+3.9%+3.4%+11.0%
Q3 2016-1.0%-3.9%-12.3%
Q2 2016+1.7%+1.1%-4.8%
Q1 2016-1.8%
Q4 2015-3.3%
Q3 2015+1.7%
Q2 2015-1.9%
Q1 2015-1.0%
Q4 2014-0.6%
Q3 2014+2.1%
Q2 2014-0.7%
Q1 2014-1.8%
Q4 2013+0.2%
Q3 2013+0.8%
Q2 2013+3.1%
Q1 2013-3.3%
Q4 2012+2.9%
Q3 2012-1.6%
Q2 2012+3.9%
Q1 2012+2.3%
Q4 2011+1.0%
Q3 2011-1.9%
Q2 2011-0.1%
Q1 2011-0.1%
Q4 2010-1.6%
Q3 2010-0.3%
Q2 2010+2.5%
Q1 2010+0.4%
Q4 2009-0.8%
Q4 2008-0.3%

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