NYSE$HUM

Humana Inc · Q4 2019 earnings

Q4 2019 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Humana reported strong Q4 2019 financial results, exceeding expectations with growth in Medicare Advantage and strategic investments.

Humana's Q4 2019 earnings exceeded expectations, driven by strong performance in the Medicare Advantage business and Healthcare Services segment. The company reported a GAAP EPS of $3.84 and an adjusted EPS of $2.28. Revenues for the quarter were $16.295 billion. The company also provided FY 2020 EPS guidance in a range of $17.76 to $18.26 on a GAAP basis, $18.25 to $18.75 on an Adjusted basis.

  • Q4 2019 GAAP EPS was $3.84, and adjusted EPS was $2.28.
  • FY 2019 GAAP EPS was $20.10, and adjusted EPS was $17.87, exceeding previous guidance.
  • FY 2020 EPS guidance is projected to be in the range of $17.76 to $18.26 on a GAAP basis, and $18.25 to $18.75 on an adjusted basis.
  • The retail segment finished the year strong, with the segment benefit expense ratio 70 basis points better than the initial guidance midpoint.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$16.3B

Previous: $14.2B+15.0%
EPS (adj)

$2.28

Previous: $2.65-14.0%
Capital Expenditures

$230M

Previous: $176M+30.7%
Free Cash Flow

$282M

Previous: -$509M+155.4%
Net Income

$593M

Previous: $355M+67.0%
Operating Income

$593M

Previous: $497M+19.3%
Gross Profit

$8.91B

Previous: $6.64B+34.2%
Cash & Equivalents

$4.05B

Previous: $2.34B+73.0%
Total Assets

$29.1B

Previous: $25.4B+14.4%
Stock-Based Comp

$44M

Previous: $32M+37.5%

Revenue & EPS history

Humana · Revenue · Quarterly

$16.3B

Q4 2019+15%vs Q4 2018
Beat estimate in 16 of 16 quarters(100%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Humana · $25.5B total across 1 segment · Q3 2023

  • Insurance
    $25.5B

Forward guidance

Humana provided its GAAP and Adjusted EPS guidance for the year ending December 31, 2020 (FY 2020).

Tailwinds

  • Positive momentum from strong 2019 results
  • Industry-leading individual Medicare Advantage membership growth
  • Seniors are increasingly choosing Medicare Advantage plans
  • Humana’s value proposition, consumer orientation and strong brand resonate in the market
  • Expect 2020 to be another good year for the company with solid top and bottom line growth notwithstanding the return of the health insurance industry fee

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2019

Historical avgQ4 2019

+0.9%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.5%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.8%

Avg return

30 days after

62%

45 / 73 earnings

Positive

+12.4%

Q2 2025

Best reaction

-12.6%

Q2 2012

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+5.5%+3.6%+33.3%
Q4 2025-3.3%+1.5%-8.8%
Q3 2025-6.0%-15.4%-8.5%
Q2 2025+12.4%+6.3%+30.5%
Q1 2025+1.1%-1.0%-10.1%
Q4 2024-3.5%-4.9%-5.6%
Q3 2024+0.0%-0.9%+15.0%
Q2 2024-11.3%-11.9%-12.4%
Q1 2024-5.1%-7.6%+6.5%
Q4 2023-10.2%-6.4%-9.8%
Q3 2023-8.1%-6.9%-5.4%
Q2 2023+6.3%+8.0%+0.5%
Q1 2023+4.7%+6.7%-1.0%
Q4 2022-4.3%-5.0%-2.2%
Q3 2022+1.5%+0.1%-1.4%
Q2 2022-1.7%-3.6%-1.1%
Q1 2022+6.6%+0.7%+7.1%
Q4 2021+9.1%+10.2%+13.0%
Q3 2021-0.8%-0.6%-7.7%
Q2 2021-7.9%-8.1%-13.2%
Q1 2021-0.3%+0.4%-2.5%
Q4 2020+2.1%+0.4%+5.9%
Q3 2020+10.6%+5.9%-1.2%
Q2 2020+4.2%+7.3%+5.6%
Q1 2020+5.2%+4.1%+13.2%
Q4 2019+4.8%+3.0%+7.1%
Q3 2019+6.9%+7.7%+18.1%
Q2 2019+4.8%+0.8%-0.5%
Q1 2019-3.1%-2.3%-4.1%
Q4 2018+0.2%-3.2%-11.6%
Q3 2018+2.3%+1.8%-7.8%
Q2 2018+2.4%+2.8%+6.1%
Q1 2018-2.9%-3.9%-1.9%
Q4 2017-2.5%-0.8%+1.3%
Q3 2017-3.5%-6.0%+0.1%
Q2 2017+7.8%+8.2%+12.1%
Q1 2017+2.0%+3.9%+8.4%
Q4 2016+6.0%+5.9%+11.6%
Q3 2016+5.8%+12.5%+29.2%
Q2 2016+2.5%+4.8%+4.6%
Q1 2016-1.6%
Q4 2015-0.9%
Q3 2015-0.8%
Q2 2015-0.4%
Q1 2015-8.6%
Q4 2014+1.2%
Q3 2014-5.3%
Q2 2014-7.7%
Q1 2014+6.3%
Q4 2013-0.8%
Q3 2013+1.6%
Q2 2013+2.3%
Q1 2013+1.6%
Q4 2012+7.0%
Q3 2012+1.3%
Q2 2012-12.6%
Q1 2012-4.0%
Q4 2011+1.0%
Q3 2011+4.2%
Q2 2011-2.0%
Q1 2011+1.8%
Q4 2010+3.5%
Q3 2010+4.0%
Q2 2010+4.0%
Q1 2009+4.9%
Q1 2010-0.9%
Q4 2009+3.6%
Q4 2007+3.6%
Q3 2008+5.0%
Q3 2009+5.0%
Q4 2008+2.0%
Q2 2009+2.0%
Q2 2008+2.0%

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