NYSE$HUM

Humana Inc · Q2 2021 earnings

Q2 2021 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Humana's financial performance in Q2 2021 reflected solid fundamentals, offset by COVID-19 impacts, with GAAP EPS of $4.55 and Adjusted EPS of $6.89.

Humana reported a GAAP EPS of $4.55 and an adjusted EPS of $6.89 for Q2 2021. The company maintains its full-year 2021 adjusted EPS financial guidance and reaffirms its expected individual Medicare Advantage membership growth range.

  • Reported 2Q21 earnings per diluted common share of $4.55 on a GAAP basis, $6.89 on an Adjusted basis.
  • Updated FY 2021 EPS guidance to a range of $24.97 to $25.47 on a GAAP basis, maintains $21.25 to $21.75 on Adjusted basis.
  • Reaffirmed FY 2021 expected individual Medicare Advantage membership growth range of approximately 425,000 to 475,000 members.
  • Results reflect solid fundamentals in the company's businesses, offset by continued impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$20.6B

Previous: $19.1B+8.2%
EPS (adj)

$6.89

Previous: $12.56-45.1%
Capital Expenditures

-$619M

Previous: -$418M-48.1%
Free Cash Flow

-$31M

Previous: $1.41B-102.2%
Net Income

$588M

Previous: $1.83B-67.8%
Operating Income

$1.24B

Previous: $2.44B-49.2%
Gross Profit

$20.6B

Previous: $19.1B+8.2%
Cash & Equivalents

$3.38B

Previous: $7.16B-52.8%
Total Assets

$38.1B

Previous: $38.5B-1.0%
Stock-Based Comp

$45M

Previous: $46M-2.2%

Revenue & EPS history

Humana · Revenue · Quarterly

$20.6B

Q2 2021+8.2%vs Q2 2020
Beat estimate in 12 of 16 quarters(75%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Humana · $18.5B total across 1 segment · Q2 2021

  • Insurance
    $18.5B+9.3%

Forward guidance

Humana is maintaining its FY 2021 Adjusted EPS guidance range of $21.25 to $21.75, while continuing to acknowledge the heightened uncertainty surrounding the ongoing pandemic as it respects COVID hospitalization trends and the rate at which non-COVID utilization normalizes.

Tailwinds

  • The revised GAAP EPS guidance reflects the YTD 2021 impact of the company's non-consolidating minority interest put/call valuation adjustments.
  • The revised GAAP EPS guidance reflects the YTD 2021 change in the fair market value of publicly-traded equity securities held by the company.
  • The revised GAAP EPS guidance reflects the estimated impact of transaction and integration costs associated with the pending Kindred at Home acquisition.
  • The revised GAAP EPS guidance reflects a mark to market gain, currently expected to approximate $1 billion, associated with the company's existing 40 percent minority ownership of Kindred at Home.
  • The company’s FY 2021 Adjusted EPS guidance assumes a $600 million COVID related headwind that is expected to be largely offset by favorable operating items.

Headwinds

  • Humana is revising its GAAP EPS guidance range for the year ending December 31, 2021 (FY 2021) to $24.97 to $25.47 from the previous range of $19.62 to $20.12.
  • The company continues to acknowledge the heightened uncertainty surrounding the ongoing pandemic as it respects COVID hospitalization trends and the rate at which non-COVID utilization normalizes.
  • The FY 2021 Adjusted EPS guidance assumes non-COVID utilization will run 2.5 percent below baseline in the back half of the year.
  • The FY 2021 Adjusted EPS guidance includes an assumption of minimal COVID testing and treatment costs for the remainder of the year.
  • The spread of, and response to, the novel coronavirus, or COVID-19, underscores certain risks Humana faces.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q2 2021

Historical avgQ2 2021

+0.9%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.5%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.8%

Avg return

30 days after

62%

45 / 73 earnings

Positive

+12.4%

Q2 2025

Best reaction

-12.6%

Q2 2012

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+5.5%+3.6%+33.3%
Q4 2025-3.3%+1.5%-8.8%
Q3 2025-6.0%-15.4%-8.5%
Q2 2025+12.4%+6.3%+30.5%
Q1 2025+1.1%-1.0%-10.1%
Q4 2024-3.5%-4.9%-5.6%
Q3 2024+0.0%-0.9%+15.0%
Q2 2024-11.3%-11.9%-12.4%
Q1 2024-5.1%-7.6%+6.5%
Q4 2023-10.2%-6.4%-9.8%
Q3 2023-8.1%-6.9%-5.4%
Q2 2023+6.3%+8.0%+0.5%
Q1 2023+4.7%+6.7%-1.0%
Q4 2022-4.3%-5.0%-2.2%
Q3 2022+1.5%+0.1%-1.4%
Q2 2022-1.7%-3.6%-1.1%
Q1 2022+6.6%+0.7%+7.1%
Q4 2021+9.1%+10.2%+13.0%
Q3 2021-0.8%-0.6%-7.7%
Q2 2021-7.9%-8.1%-13.2%
Q1 2021-0.3%+0.4%-2.5%
Q4 2020+2.1%+0.4%+5.9%
Q3 2020+10.6%+5.9%-1.2%
Q2 2020+4.2%+7.3%+5.6%
Q1 2020+5.2%+4.1%+13.2%
Q4 2019+4.8%+3.0%+7.1%
Q3 2019+6.9%+7.7%+18.1%
Q2 2019+4.8%+0.8%-0.5%
Q1 2019-3.1%-2.3%-4.1%
Q4 2018+0.2%-3.2%-11.6%
Q3 2018+2.3%+1.8%-7.8%
Q2 2018+2.4%+2.8%+6.1%
Q1 2018-2.9%-3.9%-1.9%
Q4 2017-2.5%-0.8%+1.3%
Q3 2017-3.5%-6.0%+0.1%
Q2 2017+7.8%+8.2%+12.1%
Q1 2017+2.0%+3.9%+8.4%
Q4 2016+6.0%+5.9%+11.6%
Q3 2016+5.8%+12.5%+29.2%
Q2 2016+2.5%+4.8%+4.6%
Q1 2016-1.6%
Q4 2015-0.9%
Q3 2015-0.8%
Q2 2015-0.4%
Q1 2015-8.6%
Q4 2014+1.2%
Q3 2014-5.3%
Q2 2014-7.7%
Q1 2014+6.3%
Q4 2013-0.8%
Q3 2013+1.6%
Q2 2013+2.3%
Q1 2013+1.6%
Q4 2012+7.0%
Q3 2012+1.3%
Q2 2012-12.6%
Q1 2012-4.0%
Q4 2011+1.0%
Q3 2011+4.2%
Q2 2011-2.0%
Q1 2011+1.8%
Q4 2010+3.5%
Q3 2010+4.0%
Q2 2010+4.0%
Q1 2009+4.9%
Q1 2010-0.9%
Q4 2009+3.6%
Q4 2007+3.6%
Q3 2008+5.0%
Q3 2009+5.0%
Q4 2008+2.0%
Q2 2009+2.0%
Q2 2008+2.0%

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