NYSE$HUM

Humana Inc · Q3 2020 earnings

Q3 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Humana reported third quarter 2020 financial results, emphasizing actions to facilitate access to quality care during the pandemic.

Humana's Q3 2020 earnings were impacted by increasing utilization, COVID-19 testing and treatment costs, and crisis relief efforts. The company reported GAAP EPS of $10.05 and Adjusted EPS of $3.08. Humana anticipates fourth quarter losses to reflect continued support for its constituents, along with the impact of increasing utilization, and COVID-19 testing and treatment costs.

  • Continued emphasis on actions to alleviate financial burdens and other hardships for its members, providers, employees, and communities during the COVID-19 pandemic.
  • Achieved 92 percent, or 4.1 million of the company's Medicare Advantage members currently enrolled in 4-Star and above contracts for 2021, including 960,000 members in 4.5 Star contracts and a 5-Star rated contract in Florida.
  • Reported 3Q20 earnings per diluted common share (EPS) of $10.05 on a GAAP basis, $3.08 on an Adjusted basis; reports YTD 2020 EPS of $27.37 on a GAAP basis, $21.04 on an Adjusted basis
  • Increased full year expected individual Medicare Advantage membership growth to approximately 375,000 members from the previous range of 330,000 to 360,000 members, representing expected year-over-year growth of approximately 10 percent

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$20.1B

Previous: $16.2B+23.6%
EPS (adj)

$3.08

Previous: $5.03-38.8%
Capital Expenditures

-$668M

Previous: -$506M-32.0%
Free Cash Flow

$672M

Previous: $183M+267.2%
Net Income

$1.34B

Previous: $689M+94.5%
Operating Income

$1.82B

Previous: $868M+110.0%
Gross Profit

$20.1B

Previous: $16.2B+23.6%
Cash & Equivalents

$7.99B

Previous: $5.53B+44.5%
Total Assets

$38.5B

Previous: $29.2B+31.9%
Stock-Based Comp

$47M

Previous: $43M+9.3%

Revenue & EPS history

Humana · Revenue · Quarterly

$20.1B

Q3 2020+23.6%vs Q3 2019
Beat estimate in 14 of 16 quarters(88%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Humana · $16.7B total across 1 segment · Q3 2020

  • Insurance
    $16.7B

Forward guidance

Humana adjusted its GAAP and Adjusted EPS guidance ranges for the year ended December 31, 2020 (FY20).

Tailwinds

  • The company now expects its FY20 GAAP EPS to be in the range of $24.70 to $24.95, compared to the previous range of $23.74 to $24.24
  • Adjusted EPS is expected to be in a range of $18.50 to $18.75 versus the previous range of $18.25 to $18.75.
  • The company is revising its individual Medicare Advantage net membership growth estimate to now anticipate growth of approximately 375,000 members for FY 2020 compared to the previous guidance growth range of 330,000 to 360,000 members.
  • This anticipated increase in 2020 represents year-over-year growth of approximately 10 percent.
  • The company is reiterating its expectations for group Medicare Advantage net membership gains for FY 2020, projecting an increase of approximately 90,000 members year over year.

Headwinds

  • Humana anticipates fourth quarter losses to reflect continued support for its constituents
  • Losses due to the impact of increasing utilization
  • Losses due to COVID-19 testing and treatment costs
  • Given the likelihood of significant variability of results by financial statement line item (and related ratios), Humana previously withdrew its additional FY 2020 detailed guidance points that were initially provided as part of the company's fourth quarter 2019 earnings release dated February 5, 2020.
  • Humana now expects a net membership decline of approximately 500,000 members for FY 2020, compared to the previous estimate of 550,000 members in stand-alone PDP business.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2020

Historical avgQ3 2020

+0.9%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.5%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.8%

Avg return

30 days after

62%

45 / 73 earnings

Positive

+12.4%

Q2 2025

Best reaction

-12.6%

Q2 2012

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+5.5%+3.6%+33.3%
Q4 2025-3.3%+1.5%-8.8%
Q3 2025-6.0%-15.4%-8.5%
Q2 2025+12.4%+6.3%+30.5%
Q1 2025+1.1%-1.0%-10.1%
Q4 2024-3.5%-4.9%-5.6%
Q3 2024+0.0%-0.9%+15.0%
Q2 2024-11.3%-11.9%-12.4%
Q1 2024-5.1%-7.6%+6.5%
Q4 2023-10.2%-6.4%-9.8%
Q3 2023-8.1%-6.9%-5.4%
Q2 2023+6.3%+8.0%+0.5%
Q1 2023+4.7%+6.7%-1.0%
Q4 2022-4.3%-5.0%-2.2%
Q3 2022+1.5%+0.1%-1.4%
Q2 2022-1.7%-3.6%-1.1%
Q1 2022+6.6%+0.7%+7.1%
Q4 2021+9.1%+10.2%+13.0%
Q3 2021-0.8%-0.6%-7.7%
Q2 2021-7.9%-8.1%-13.2%
Q1 2021-0.3%+0.4%-2.5%
Q4 2020+2.1%+0.4%+5.9%
Q3 2020+10.6%+5.9%-1.2%
Q2 2020+4.2%+7.3%+5.6%
Q1 2020+5.2%+4.1%+13.2%
Q4 2019+4.8%+3.0%+7.1%
Q3 2019+6.9%+7.7%+18.1%
Q2 2019+4.8%+0.8%-0.5%
Q1 2019-3.1%-2.3%-4.1%
Q4 2018+0.2%-3.2%-11.6%
Q3 2018+2.3%+1.8%-7.8%
Q2 2018+2.4%+2.8%+6.1%
Q1 2018-2.9%-3.9%-1.9%
Q4 2017-2.5%-0.8%+1.3%
Q3 2017-3.5%-6.0%+0.1%
Q2 2017+7.8%+8.2%+12.1%
Q1 2017+2.0%+3.9%+8.4%
Q4 2016+6.0%+5.9%+11.6%
Q3 2016+5.8%+12.5%+29.2%
Q2 2016+2.5%+4.8%+4.6%
Q1 2016-1.6%
Q4 2015-0.9%
Q3 2015-0.8%
Q2 2015-0.4%
Q1 2015-8.6%
Q4 2014+1.2%
Q3 2014-5.3%
Q2 2014-7.7%
Q1 2014+6.3%
Q4 2013-0.8%
Q3 2013+1.6%
Q2 2013+2.3%
Q1 2013+1.6%
Q4 2012+7.0%
Q3 2012+1.3%
Q2 2012-12.6%
Q1 2012-4.0%
Q4 2011+1.0%
Q3 2011+4.2%
Q2 2011-2.0%
Q1 2011+1.8%
Q4 2010+3.5%
Q3 2010+4.0%
Q2 2010+4.0%
Q1 2009+4.9%
Q1 2010-0.9%
Q4 2009+3.6%
Q4 2007+3.6%
Q3 2008+5.0%
Q3 2009+5.0%
Q4 2008+2.0%
Q2 2009+2.0%
Q2 2008+2.0%

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