NYSE$HUM

Humana Inc · Q2 2020 earnings

Q2 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Humana's financial results for Q2 2020 were reported, with proactive relief efforts amid the pandemic.

Humana reported a strong second quarter with EPS of $13.75 on a GAAP basis and $12.56 on an adjusted basis. The company reaffirmed its FY 2020 Adjusted EPS guidance range of $18.25 to $18.75 and increased full year expected individual Medicare Advantage membership growth.

  • Humana continued actions to support members, providers, employees, and communities during the COVID-19 pandemic.
  • The company donated an additional $150 million to the Humana Foundation to address social determinants of health.
  • Humana reported 2Q20 EPS of $13.75 on a GAAP basis, and $12.56 on an Adjusted basis.
  • Full year expected individual Medicare Advantage membership growth increased to 330,000 to 360,000 members.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$19.1B

Previous: $16.2B+17.5%
EPS (adj)

$12.56

Previous: $6.05+107.6%
Capital Expenditures

-$418M

Previous: -$296M-41.2%
Free Cash Flow

$1.41B

Previous: $644M+118.9%
Net Income

$1.83B

Previous: $940M+94.5%
Operating Income

$2.44B

Previous: $1.12B+118.4%
Gross Profit

$19.1B

Previous: $16.2B+17.5%
Cash & Equivalents

$7.16B

Previous: $4.78B+49.9%
Total Assets

$38.5B

Previous: $28.9B+33.0%
Stock-Based Comp

$46M

Previous: $43M+7.0%

Revenue & EPS history

Humana · Revenue · Quarterly

$19.1B

Q2 2020+17.5%vs Q2 2019
Beat estimate in 15 of 16 quarters(94%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Humana · $17B total across 1 segment · Q2 2020

  • Insurance
    $17B+19.8%

Forward guidance

Humana is revising its GAAP EPS guidance range for the year ending December 31, 2020 (FY 2020) to $17.36 to $17.86 and is maintaining its FY 2020 Adjusted EPS range of $18.25 to $18.75.

Tailwinds

  • FY 2020 GAAP EPS expected to be in a range of $17.36 to $17.86
  • FY 2020 Adjusted EPS guidance range of $18.25 to $18.75 is maintained
  • Individual Medicare Advantage membership growth is expected to be 330,000 to 360,000 members
  • Group Medicare Advantage net membership gains are projected to increase approximately 90,000 members year over year
  • Net membership decline of approximately 550,000 members is estimated for stand-alone PDP business

Headwinds

  • Inherent uncertainty surrounds the ongoing crisis
  • Significant variability of results by financial statement line item
  • Potential inadequacy of government determined payment rates
  • Potential restrictions on profitability
  • The rapid development and fluidity of this situation precludes any prediction as to the ultimate adverse impact to Humana of COVID-19

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q2 2020

Historical avgQ2 2020

+0.9%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.5%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.8%

Avg return

30 days after

62%

45 / 73 earnings

Positive

+12.4%

Q2 2025

Best reaction

-12.6%

Q2 2012

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+5.5%+3.6%+33.3%
Q4 2025-3.3%+1.5%-8.8%
Q3 2025-6.0%-15.4%-8.5%
Q2 2025+12.4%+6.3%+30.5%
Q1 2025+1.1%-1.0%-10.1%
Q4 2024-3.5%-4.9%-5.6%
Q3 2024+0.0%-0.9%+15.0%
Q2 2024-11.3%-11.9%-12.4%
Q1 2024-5.1%-7.6%+6.5%
Q4 2023-10.2%-6.4%-9.8%
Q3 2023-8.1%-6.9%-5.4%
Q2 2023+6.3%+8.0%+0.5%
Q1 2023+4.7%+6.7%-1.0%
Q4 2022-4.3%-5.0%-2.2%
Q3 2022+1.5%+0.1%-1.4%
Q2 2022-1.7%-3.6%-1.1%
Q1 2022+6.6%+0.7%+7.1%
Q4 2021+9.1%+10.2%+13.0%
Q3 2021-0.8%-0.6%-7.7%
Q2 2021-7.9%-8.1%-13.2%
Q1 2021-0.3%+0.4%-2.5%
Q4 2020+2.1%+0.4%+5.9%
Q3 2020+10.6%+5.9%-1.2%
Q2 2020+4.2%+7.3%+5.6%
Q1 2020+5.2%+4.1%+13.2%
Q4 2019+4.8%+3.0%+7.1%
Q3 2019+6.9%+7.7%+18.1%
Q2 2019+4.8%+0.8%-0.5%
Q1 2019-3.1%-2.3%-4.1%
Q4 2018+0.2%-3.2%-11.6%
Q3 2018+2.3%+1.8%-7.8%
Q2 2018+2.4%+2.8%+6.1%
Q1 2018-2.9%-3.9%-1.9%
Q4 2017-2.5%-0.8%+1.3%
Q3 2017-3.5%-6.0%+0.1%
Q2 2017+7.8%+8.2%+12.1%
Q1 2017+2.0%+3.9%+8.4%
Q4 2016+6.0%+5.9%+11.6%
Q3 2016+5.8%+12.5%+29.2%
Q2 2016+2.5%+4.8%+4.6%
Q1 2016-1.6%
Q4 2015-0.9%
Q3 2015-0.8%
Q2 2015-0.4%
Q1 2015-8.6%
Q4 2014+1.2%
Q3 2014-5.3%
Q2 2014-7.7%
Q1 2014+6.3%
Q4 2013-0.8%
Q3 2013+1.6%
Q2 2013+2.3%
Q1 2013+1.6%
Q4 2012+7.0%
Q3 2012+1.3%
Q2 2012-12.6%
Q1 2012-4.0%
Q4 2011+1.0%
Q3 2011+4.2%
Q2 2011-2.0%
Q1 2011+1.8%
Q4 2010+3.5%
Q3 2010+4.0%
Q2 2010+4.0%
Q1 2009+4.9%
Q1 2010-0.9%
Q4 2009+3.6%
Q4 2007+3.6%
Q3 2008+5.0%
Q3 2009+5.0%
Q4 2008+2.0%
Q2 2009+2.0%
Q2 2008+2.0%

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