NYSE$HTH

Hilltop Holdings Inc · Q2 2023 earnings

Q2 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Hilltop Holdings' performance decreased due to lower net income and EPS compared to the previous year.

Hilltop Holdings reported a net income of $19.9 million and EPS of $0.28 for Q2 2023. The results reflect a decrease compared to Q2 2022, with net income attributable to Hilltop at $18.1 million, a 45% decrease year-over-year. The company faced challenges in its mortgage origination segment due to increased interest rates and competitive pricing, while HilltopSecurities saw an increase in pre-tax income.

  • PlainsCapital Bank's pre-tax income decreased to $39.8 million, driven by higher provision expense.
  • PrimeLending experienced a pre-tax loss of $14.5 million due to declining mortgage origination volume and gain-on-sale margins.
  • HilltopSecurities' pre-tax income increased to $18.5 million, supported by improved revenues from sweep deposits and a strong TBA market.
  • Mortgage origination volume decreased by 36% year-over-year to $2.5 billion.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$309M

Previous: $351M-12.1%
EPS (adj)

$0.28

Previous: $0.45-37.8%
Free Cash Flow

$18.1M

Previous: $33.3M-45.5%
Net Income

$18.1M

Previous: $33.3M-45.5%
Operating Income

$186M

Previous: $296M-37.3%
Gross Profit

$294M

Previous: $346M-15.0%
Cash & Equivalents

$1.58B

Previous: $1.78B-11.1%
Total Assets

$17.1B

Previous: $16.7B+2.5%

Revenue & EPS history

Hilltop · Revenue · Quarterly

$309M

Q2 2023-12.1%vs Q2 2022
Beat estimate in 10 of 14 quarters(71%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Hilltop · $176M total across 3 segments · Q4 2022

  • Broker-Dealer
    $92.8M
  • Mortgage Origination
    $71.4M
  • Banking
    $11.9M

Forward guidance

Hilltop Holdings provided its outlook for 2023, including expectations for loan and deposit growth, net interest income, noninterest income and expenses, provision expense, and effective tax rate.

Tailwinds

  • Full year average bank loan growth 0% – 2% (excluding retained mortgages from PrimeLending and mortgage warehouse lending)
  • Expect to retain $0 – $20 million per quarter of mortgages from PrimeLending
  • NII growth 0% – 5% driven by higher interest rates
  • Mortgage gain on sale margins full year average 195-215 bps (third party sales)
  • Broker Dealer fees increase 10% – 15%

Headwinds

  • Full year average total deposits to decline 7% to 13%
  • Outlook assumes Fed Funds rate peaks during second half 2023
  • Interest-bearing deposit betas 55 – 65% (through the cycle)
  • Full year mortgage origination volume $8 – $10 billion
  • Full year provision/ total loans HFI: 25 – 45 basis points

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q2 2023

Historical avgQ2 2023

-0.3%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.2%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.6%

Avg return

30 days after

45%

30 / 66 earnings

Positive

+17.4%

Q3 2013

Best reaction

-11.3%

Q1 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-3.3%-0.8%-2.0%
Q4 2025+2.2%+6.6%+1.7%
Q3 2025+4.6%+0.1%+4.6%
Q2 2025-2.4%+0.8%+5.7%
Q1 2025-1.1%+0.8%+1.1%
Q4 2024-0.5%+8.3%+7.3%
Q3 2024+2.5%+1.5%+5.6%
Q2 2024-6.3%-5.2%-5.1%
Q1 2024+4.4%+5.1%+10.5%
Q4 2023-1.5%-3.7%-9.4%
Q3 2023-1.3%-2.0%+10.3%
Q2 2023-10.9%-7.9%-8.6%
Q1 2023+6.2%+2.7%+4.9%
Q4 2022+7.1%+8.0%+10.4%
Q3 2022+11.6%+14.0%+15.3%
Q2 2022+0.6%+0.5%+1.5%
Q1 2022-11.3%-12.9%+1.5%
Q4 2021-2.7%-6.1%-11.5%
Q3 2021+5.4%+8.5%+0.0%
Q2 2021-1.3%-1.5%+3.6%
Q1 2021+4.5%+3.0%+10.7%
Q4 2020-4.4%-2.4%+5.2%
Q3 2020-2.3%-2.8%+8.7%
Q2 2020+0.6%-0.3%+6.7%
Q1 2020-6.7%-15.6%-3.2%
Q4 2019-6.1%-4.6%-13.6%
Q3 2019+3.1%+5.9%+3.8%
Q2 2019+0.0%+2.4%+1.6%
Q1 2019+3.5%+4.8%+0.6%
Q4 2018-3.6%-3.9%+2.7%
Q3 2018+9.5%+15.6%+11.6%
Q2 2018-4.0%-5.4%-3.9%
Q1 2018-5.6%-8.5%-3.5%
Q4 2017+2.5%-2.2%-6.8%
Q3 2017+0.1%-7.1%-9.3%
Q2 2017+1.5%+1.8%-3.0%
Q1 2017+2.1%-1.2%-8.5%
Q4 2016-0.4%-3.5%-1.1%
Q3 2016-0.3%-0.1%+15.4%
Q2 2016-1.0%-1.7%+0.9%
Q1 2016-1.7%
Q4 2015+2.1%
Q3 2015-1.7%
Q2 2015-6.7%
Q1 2015+1.8%
Q4 2014-2.6%
Q3 2014-5.5%
Q2 2014-0.1%
Q1 2014-3.7%
Q4 2013+1.3%
Q3 2013+17.4%
Q2 2013-4.2%
Q1 2013+6.5%
Q4 2012+1.4%
Q3 2012-1.1%
Q2 2012-0.9%
Q1 2011-1.1%
Q1 2012+0.8%
Q4 2009+4.9%
Q4 2011+4.9%
Q3 2011+2.1%
Q3 2010+2.1%
Q2 2010-9.7%
Q4 2010-9.7%
Q2 2011-9.7%
Q1 2010+0.3%

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