NYSE$EAF

GrafTech International Ltd. · Q4 2022 earnings

Q4 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

GrafTech's fourth quarter and full year 2022 results reflected near-term challenges in the operating environment.

GrafTech's Q4 2022 net income was $50 million, with an EPS of $0.20 and adjusted EPS of $0.17. The company's performance was impacted by higher costs, softer industry demand, and the temporary suspension of operations in Monterrey, Mexico. Sales volume was 28 thousand metric tons.

  • Net income was $50 million, resulting in a 20% net income margin.
  • Earnings per share (EPS) reached $0.20, while adjusted EPS was $0.17.
  • Adjusted EBITDA amounted to $80 million, yielding a 32% adjusted EBITDA margin.
  • Sales volume totaled 28 thousand metric tons (MT).

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$248M

Previous: $363M-31.9%
EPS (adj)

$0.17

Previous: $0.50-66.0%
Capital Expenditures

$26.9M

Previous: $17.8M+50.8%
Free Cash Flow

$23.1M

Previous: $82.2M-71.8%
Net Income

$50.3M

Previous: $141M-64.4%
Operating Income

$63.9M

Previous: $162M-60.6%
Gross Profit

$84M

Previous: $181M-53.4%
Cash & Equivalents

$135M

Previous: $57.5M+134.1%
Total Assets

$1.6B

Previous: $1.41B+13.6%
Stock-Based Comp

$645K

Previous: $338K+90.8%

Revenue & EPS history

GrafTech · Revenue · Quarterly

$248M

Q4 2022-31.9%vs Q4 2021
Beat estimate in 8 of 15 quarters(53%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

GrafTech anticipates continued soft demand for graphite electrodes due to ongoing economic uncertainty and geopolitical conflict. The suspension of operations in Monterrey, Mexico is expected to have a significant impact on sales volume for the first half of 2023. Sales volume for the first six months of 2023 is estimated to be approximately half of the level reported in the same period of 2022.

Tailwinds

  • The facility in Monterrey, Mexico has resumed production.
  • Sales volume levels are expected to recover in the second half of the year as the uncertainty driven by the Monterrey suspension diminishes.
  • A gradual improvement in market conditions is anticipated to strengthen demand for graphite electrodes.
  • The company is closely managing all of its operating costs and capital expenditures, as well as its working capital levels.
  • Longer term, the steel industry’s accelerating efforts to decarbonize will lead to increased adoption of the electric arc furnace method of steelmaking, driving long-term demand growth for graphite electrodes.

Headwinds

  • Continued soft demand for graphite electrodes is expected due to ongoing economic uncertainty and geopolitical conflict.
  • The suspension of operations in Monterrey, Mexico is expected to have a significant impact on sales volume for the first half of 2023.
  • The suspension resulted in uncertainty during a key commitment window for customer purchases covering the first six months of 2023.
  • Sales volume for the first six months of 2023 is estimated to be approximately half of the level reported in the same period of 2022, with the largest impact occurring in the first quarter.
  • A significant year-over-year increase in cost of goods sold per metric ton is expected as fixed costs will be recognized over a smaller volume base and reflecting the full year impact of higher raw material costs that increased throughout 2022.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2022

Historical avgQ4 2022

-4.0%

Avg return

Earnings day

-4.9%

Avg return

5 days after

-3.1%

Avg return

30 days after

39%

13 / 33 earnings

Positive

+14.3%

Q4 2020

Best reaction

-46.2%

Q4 2025

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-1.7%+11.2%+15.6%
Q4 2025-46.2%-51.7%-62.8%
Q3 2025-1.9%-24.7%-30.0%
Q1 2025+7.8%-3.1%+59.3%
Q4 2024-9.4%-31.5%-22.1%
Q3 2024+3.9%+2.4%-7.2%
Q2 2024-3.5%-8.9%-13.0%
Q1 2024+3.1%+3.7%+10.6%
Q4 2023+7.6%+5.3%+26.5%
Q3 2023-23.6%-28.9%-22.1%
Q2 2023-21.8%-15.7%-31.5%
Q1 2023-9.9%-14.0%-5.7%
Q4 2022-16.2%-17.9%-12.3%
Q3 2022-3.1%-10.5%+7.6%
Q2 2022-13.0%-11.6%-25.6%
Q1 2022-8.9%-13.0%-2.0%
Q4 2021-12.6%-8.0%-13.2%
Q3 2021+12.7%+11.4%+5.6%
Q2 2021-6.6%-0.3%-4.1%
Q1 2021-2.0%-6.2%-2.0%
Q4 2020+14.3%+20.4%+11.8%
Q3 2020-9.3%+0.3%+39.2%
Q2 2020+9.3%+9.3%+1.9%
Q1 2020-14.3%-14.8%+11.5%
Q4 2019-5.6%-5.4%-31.9%
Q3 2019+2.2%+8.6%-3.0%
Q2 2019-1.6%-5.3%+9.0%
Q1 2019+2.2%+6.7%-13.4%
Q4 2018+0.8%+7.6%-5.8%
Q3 2018-0.6%-4.3%-13.6%
Q2 2018+0.4%-2.5%-15.6%
Q4 2017+8.3%+14.0%+18.6%
Q1 2018+8.3%+14.0%+18.6%
Q3 2017
Q2 2017
Q4 2016
Q1 2017
Q3 2016
Q2 2016
Q1 2016
Q4 2015
Q3 2015
Q2 2015
Q1 2015
Q4 2014
Q3 2014
Q2 2014
Q1 2014
Q4 2013
Q3 2013
Q2 2013
Q1 2013
Q4 2012
Q3 2012
Q2 2012
Q1 2012
Q4 2011
Q3 2011
Q2 2011
Q1 2011
Q4 2010
Q3 2010
Q2 2010
Q1 2009
Q1 2010
Q4 2009
Q3 2009
Q3 2008
Q2 2009
Q4 2008
Q4 2007
Q2 2008

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