NYSE$DIN

Dine Brands Global Inc · Q3 2020 earnings

Q3 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Dine Brands showcased improved sales trends and off-premise growth, while maintaining a strong liquidity and cash position.

Dine Brands Global, Inc. reported financial results for the third quarter of 2020, with both Applebee's and IHOP showing continued improvements. Off-premise growth drove robust sales as government restrictions eased. As of September 30, 97% of domestic restaurants were open. The company had $389.6 million in total cash.

  • Applebee’s comparable same-restaurant sales improved 10 out of 13 weeks through the week ended September 27, 2020 from a decline of 22.3% to an increase of 0.4%.
  • IHOP’s comparable same-restaurant sales improved 10 out of 13 weeks through the week ended September 27, 2020 from a decline of 40.4% to a decline of 23.5%.
  • Applebee’s off-premise sales accounted for 34.6% of sales mix for the third quarter of 2020.
  • IHOP’s off-premise sales accounted for 32.4% of sales mix for the third quarter of 2020.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$177M

Previous: $217M-18.7%
EPS (adj)

$0.80

Previous: $1.55-48.4%
Capital Expenditures

-$9.09M

Previous: -$13.4M+32.0%
Free Cash Flow

$930K

Previous: $10.6M-91.2%
Net Income

$10M

Previous: $23.9M-58.1%
Operating Income

-$79.6M

Previous: $47.2M-268.7%
Gross Profit

$66.8M

Previous: $89.7M-25.6%
Cash & Equivalents

$309M

Previous: $101M+207.7%
Total Assets

$2.07B

Previous: $2B+3.7%
Stock-Based Comp

$2.52M

Previous: $2.33M+8.5%

Revenue & EPS history

Dine Brands · Revenue · Quarterly

$177M

Q3 2020-18.7%vs Q3 2019
Beat estimate in 12 of 16 quarters(75%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

The Company expects the trajectory for domestic system-wide comparable same-restaurant sales for both Applebee’s and IHOP to gradually improve. Domestic development activity by Applebee’s franchisees is expected to result in net closures of approximately 15 restaurants in the fourth quarter of 2020. Based on the Company’s current assessment, it expects the evaluation could result in the net closure of less than 100 IHOP restaurants over the next 6 months. General and administrative expenses for the fourth quarter of 2020 are expected to be approximately $45 million, including non-cash stock-based compensation expense and depreciation totaling approximately $7 million.

Tailwinds

  • Trajectory for domestic system-wide comparable same-restaurant sales for both Applebee’s and IHOP to gradually improve.

Headwinds

  • Domestic development activity by Applebee’s franchisees is expected to result in net closures of approximately 15 restaurants in the fourth quarter of 2020.
  • Evaluation could result in the net closure of less than 100 IHOP restaurants over the next 6 months.
  • General and administrative expenses for the fourth quarter of 2020 are expected to be approximately $45 million, including non-cash stock-based compensation expense and depreciation totaling approximately $7 million.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2020

Historical avgQ3 2020

+1.4%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.0%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.9%

Avg return

30 days after

51%

33 / 65 earnings

Positive

+22.6%

Q4 2017

Best reaction

-12.8%

Q4 2016

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-3.5%+3.2%+3.9%
Q4 2025-0.2%-1.2%-17.8%
Q3 2025+3.7%+3.7%+35.7%
Q1 2025+2.2%+21.2%+24.0%
Q4 2024+3.4%+14.5%-10.1%
Q3 2024+13.1%+7.9%+4.0%
Q2 2024-6.8%-7.1%-3.6%
Q1 2024-1.2%+0.8%-13.4%
Q4 2023+5.1%+3.9%+0.7%
Q3 2023-9.4%-8.6%-6.3%
Q2 2023-2.6%-1.2%-6.8%
Q1 2023+2.8%-0.3%+0.2%
Q4 2022-2.9%-3.8%-11.8%
Q3 2022+2.4%+5.0%+3.7%
Q2 2022+4.5%+3.8%-2.5%
Q1 2022-4.0%-6.3%+0.7%
Q4 2021-7.6%-19.2%-3.5%
Q3 2021+12.3%+4.8%-10.0%
Q2 2021+1.9%-2.1%+6.4%
Q1 2021+1.0%+0.7%-5.9%
Q4 2020-0.5%+3.5%+12.2%
Q3 2020-4.6%-11.6%+13.2%
Q2 2020+10.6%+5.7%+49.5%
Q1 2020+18.6%+4.4%+21.3%
Q4 2019-8.9%-15.8%-69.4%
Q3 2019+0.1%+4.6%+13.4%
Q2 2019-2.8%-6.2%-18.4%
Q1 2019-0.5%+1.1%+6.5%
Q4 2018+12.8%+9.8%-3.0%
Q3 2018+7.6%+14.7%+12.0%
Q2 2018+5.0%+3.6%+17.4%
Q1 2018-5.8%-4.9%-21.3%
Q4 2017+22.6%+26.2%+22.5%
Q3 2017+8.5%+5.0%+17.5%
Q2 2017+6.5%+6.0%+2.1%
Q1 2017-6.2%-7.1%-15.5%
Q4 2016-12.8%-10.2%-20.1%
Q3 2016-2.6%-2.1%+9.5%
Q2 2016-5.8%-6.0%-1.8%
Q1 2016-2.9%
Q4 2015+12.3%
Q3 2015-4.6%
Q2 2015+3.7%
Q1 2015-5.2%
Q4 2014-3.5%
Q3 2014+3.3%
Q2 2014+4.2%
Q1 2014+5.7%
Q4 2013+3.0%
Q3 2013+15.7%
Q2 2013+6.6%
Q1 2013+1.4%
Q4 2012-3.3%
Q3 2012+8.8%
Q2 2012+12.8%
Q1 2011+4.5%
Q1 2012+2.1%
Q4 2009-4.6%
Q1 2010-4.6%
Q4 2011-4.6%
Q3 2010-4.6%
Q3 2011-4.6%
Q2 2011-3.0%
Q2 2010-3.0%
Q4 2010-3.0%

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