NYSE$BFH

Bread Financial Holdings Inc · Q1 2020 earnings

Q1 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Alliance Data's first quarter performance was impacted by COVID-19 in March, offsetting positive trends from January and February.

Alliance Data reported a 4% increase in revenue for the first quarter, but earnings were negatively impacted by a $404 million increase in the provision for loan losses due to CECL adoption and COVID-19. The company is focused on maintaining liquidity and managing costs during the economic uncertainty.

  • Revenue increased by 4% year-over-year, driven by positive momentum in January and February.
  • Earnings were negatively impacted by a $404 million increase in provision for loan losses due to CECL adoption and COVID-19.
  • The company has implemented business continuity plans and teleworking protocols for over 95% of global associates.
  • Alliance Data is focused on strengthening its financial position through cost reductions and proactive management of its business.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.38B

Previous: $1.33B+3.6%
EPS (adj)

$0.75

Previous: $3.72-79.8%
Credit Sales

$6.1B

Previous: $6.32B-3.4%
Average Receivables

$18.3B

Previous: $16.9B+8.6%
Net Principal Loss Rate

7.0%

Previous: 6.4%+9.4%
Delinquency Rate

6.0%

Previous: 5.2%+15.4%
Free Cash Flow

$30M

Previous: $149M-79.9%
Net Income

$30M

Previous: $149M-79.9%
Operating Income

$164M

Previous: $357M-54.0%
Gross Profit

$883M

Previous: $694M+27.2%
Cash & Equivalents

$4.46B

Previous: $3.69B+20.9%
Total Assets

$24.2B

Previous: $29.4B-17.7%
Stock-Based Comp

$4.7M

Previous: $21.1M-77.7%

Revenue & EPS history

Bread Financial · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.38B

Q1 2020+3.6%vs Q1 2019
Beat estimate in 11 of 16 quarters(69%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

Due to the uncertainty of the pandemic's duration and impact, Alliance Data has suspended its previous guidance for 2020, but they are confident in managing through the crisis effectively.

Tailwinds

  • Business is fully operational.
  • Credit card portfolio is more diversified and better positioned than in 2009.
  • Company is in a stronger financial position with significant liquidity and borrowing capacity.
  • Recession readiness program implemented to address lower credit sales and higher delinquencies.
  • Prioritized strategic investments in data, information management, and digital customer-facing products and capabilities.

Headwinds

  • Difficult to project the duration of the pandemic and its impact on full year results.
  • Suspension of previous guidance for 2020.
  • Lower credit sales and higher delinquencies.
  • Difficult to project the recovery rate of retail spending post-COVID-19.
  • Adjusting the timing of significant coalition and sponsor-specific promotions and marketing programs.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2020

Historical avgQ1 2020

+0.8%

Avg return

Earnings day

+2.2%

Avg return

5 days after

+3.3%

Avg return

30 days after

59%

41 / 69 earnings

Positive

+17.8%

Q3 2020

Best reaction

-19.0%

Q4 2015

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+0.1%-6.6%-6.5%
Q4 2025+7.4%+10.6%+3.9%
Q3 2025+8.4%+7.3%+6.9%
Q2 2025+0.6%-2.0%+3.5%
Q1 2025+2.5%+1.2%+5.7%
Q4 2024-0.5%-5.4%-15.2%
Q3 2024+0.2%-1.8%+13.8%
Q2 2024+9.2%+8.1%+12.4%
Q1 2024+4.2%+3.9%+17.9%
Q4 2023+16.4%+20.3%+20.6%
Q3 2023-2.5%-2.8%-2.2%
Q2 2023+12.0%+11.4%+1.7%
Q1 2023+3.3%-7.0%+11.0%
Q4 2022-5.8%-4.0%-7.2%
Q3 2022+5.9%+12.6%+21.3%
Q2 2022-5.2%-10.0%-8.0%
Q1 2022+6.0%+3.5%+1.8%
Q4 2021+1.7%+5.0%+1.8%
Q3 2021-3.7%-2.1%+2.4%
Q2 2021-5.9%-6.1%-1.2%
Q1 2021+9.3%+10.9%+12.2%
Q4 2020+0.1%+3.2%+42.8%
Q3 2020+17.8%+31.1%+70.4%
Q2 2020+4.3%+1.1%+1.5%
Q1 2020+10.1%+29.8%+14.6%
Q4 2019-6.3%-6.6%-21.7%
Q3 2019-15.3%-16.0%-15.6%
Q2 2019+0.5%+2.9%-8.0%
Q1 2019-4.9%-2.9%-13.0%
Q4 2018-8.7%-6.0%-7.5%
Q3 2018+2.2%-2.8%-6.3%
Q2 2018+3.1%+2.8%+5.3%
Q1 2018-2.0%-3.9%-1.6%
Q4 2017+0.9%-1.9%-6.7%
Q3 2017+4.8%+5.0%-1.8%
Q2 2017-10.2%-8.1%-16.0%
Q1 2017+7.8%+9.3%-2.3%
Q4 2016-2.2%+0.5%+7.7%
Q3 2016-6.9%-5.1%+1.3%
Q2 2016+7.5%+8.4%-6.9%
Q1 2016-5.5%
Q4 2015-19.0%
Q3 2015+7.2%
Q2 2015-9.1%
Q1 2015-2.5%
Q4 2014-6.1%
Q3 2014+8.8%
Q2 2014-1.6%
Q1 2014-7.5%
Q4 2013+13.2%
Q3 2013+2.5%
Q2 2013+3.0%
Q1 2013+1.9%
Q4 2012+2.2%
Q3 2012+4.0%
Q2 2012+0.5%
Q1 2012+0.5%
Q4 2011-0.3%
Q3 2011+0.7%
Q2 2011-3.7%
Q1 2010+1.0%
Q1 2011+1.0%
Q4 2008-1.0%
Q4 2010-1.0%
Q3 2010+0.4%
Q3 2009+0.4%
Q4 2009-0.5%
Q2 2010-0.5%
Q2 2009-0.5%

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