NYSE$ALLE

Allegion · Q4 2023 earnings

Q4 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Allegion reported solid Q4 execution and record full-year results.

Allegion's Q4 2023 reflected strong execution, margin expansion and cash generation. Net revenues increased by 4.2% to $897.4 million, and net earnings were $118.6 million, or $1.34 per share. Adjusted EPS was $1.68, down 0.6%. The adjusted operating margin was 22.0%, compared to 20.7% in the prior year.

  • Net revenues increased 4.2% on a reported basis and 2.6% on an organic basis.
  • Net earnings per share (EPS) of $1.34, down 12.4% compared with $1.53; Adjusted EPS of $1.68, down 0.6% compared with $1.69.
  • Operating margin of 17.8%, compared with 18.5%; Adjusted operating margin of 22.0%, up 130 basis points compared with 20.7%.
  • Solid growth in the company’s non-residential Americas business was partially offset by declines in its residential and Allegion International businesses.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$897M

Previous: $862M+4.2%
EPS (adj)

$1.68

Previous: $1.60+5.0%
Operating Margin

17.8%

Previous: 18.5%-3.8%
Adjusted Operating Margin

22.0%

Previous: 19.5%+12.8%
Interest Expense

$22.9M

Previous: $23.7M-3.4%
Effective Tax Rate

13.4%

Previous: 3.4%+294.1%
Capital Expenditures

-$22.6M

Previous: $64M-135.4%
Net Income

$119M

Previous: $135M-12.3%
Operating Income

$160M

Previous: $159M+0.2%
Gross Profit

$385M

Previous: $351M+9.9%
Stock-Based Comp

$26.4M

Previous: $24.5M+7.8%

Revenue & EPS history

Allegion · Revenue · Quarterly

$897M

Q4 2023+4.2%vs Q4 2022
Beat estimate in 10 of 15 quarters(67%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Allegion · $918M total across 2 segments · Q3 2023

  • Allegion Americas
    $741M-0.8%
  • Allegion International
    $177M+6.3%

Forward guidance

The company expects full-year 2024 revenues to increase 1.5% to 3.5% on a reported basis and increase 1% to 3% organically, when compared to 2023. Full-year 2024 reported EPS is expected to be in the range of $6.45 to $6.60, or $7.00 to $7.15 on an adjusted basis. The company expects full-year available cash flow of approximately $540 to $570 million.

Tailwinds

  • Full-year reported revenue growth is estimated to be 1.5% to 3.5%.
  • Organic revenue growth is estimated to be 1% to 3%.
  • Full-year adjusted EPS is estimated to be $7.00 to $7.15.
  • Available cash flow is estimated to be $540 to $570 million.
  • The outlook assumes an average diluted share count for the full year of approximately 88 million shares.

Headwinds

  • The outlook assumes a headwind of approximately $0.37 based on a full-year adjusted effective tax rate of 18% to 19%, inclusive of the estimated impacts of global minimum tax.
  • Adjustments to 2024 EPS include estimated impacts of approximately $0.46 per share for acquisition-related amortization.
  • Adjustments to 2024 EPS include estimated impacts of approximately $0.09 per share for restructuring and M&A.
  • Unspecified risks and uncertainties could cause actual results to differ materially.
  • The company undertakes no obligation to update these forward-looking statements.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2023

Historical avgQ4 2023

+0.3%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.7%

Avg return

5 days after

-0.9%

Avg return

30 days after

48%

26 / 54 earnings

Positive

+10.3%

Q1 2025

Best reaction

-9.5%

Q2 2020

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+3.6%-8.7%-12.6%
Q4 2025-9.2%-9.7%-19.9%
Q3 2025-2.5%-3.7%-7.2%
Q2 2025-0.6%+0.1%+3.2%
Q1 2025+10.3%+9.3%+11.7%
Q4 2024-5.6%-4.7%-4.3%
Q3 2024-5.5%-7.3%-6.3%
Q2 2024+4.5%+8.2%+7.7%
Q1 2024-2.1%-3.9%-3.1%
Q4 2023-1.0%-2.5%+2.2%
Q3 2023+1.2%+4.3%+8.6%
Q2 2023-9.1%-8.0%-13.6%
Q1 2023+9.3%+8.6%+5.1%
Q4 2022-1.1%-1.7%-12.5%
Q3 2022+9.1%+9.5%+17.5%
Q2 2022+1.4%-1.4%-6.3%
Q1 2022+1.1%-0.4%-3.4%
Q4 2021-2.6%-3.5%-0.5%
Q3 2021-2.4%-5.4%-2.2%
Q2 2021-0.9%-2.7%-1.3%
Q1 2021+4.0%+3.4%+3.3%
Q4 2020-7.6%-7.8%+3.1%
Q3 2020-1.0%-4.5%+8.8%
Q2 2020-9.5%-11.7%-10.2%
Q1 2020+3.9%+9.3%+1.4%
Q4 2019-5.6%-7.4%-32.2%
Q3 2019+8.6%+10.6%+14.1%
Q2 2019-2.7%-3.6%-13.7%
Q1 2019+2.9%+3.9%+4.0%
Q4 2018-3.9%-2.0%-2.9%
Q3 2018+3.7%+6.1%+11.8%
Q2 2018+1.9%+1.8%+9.0%
Q1 2018-6.3%-7.1%-5.1%
Q4 2017+4.8%+4.2%+2.3%
Q3 2017-7.2%-3.6%-4.1%
Q2 2017+3.7%+3.8%-1.1%
Q1 2017-1.4%-2.6%-0.4%
Q4 2016+6.4%+5.1%+10.2%
Q3 2016-3.0%-3.2%+3.5%
Q2 2016+0.7%-0.3%-0.4%
Q1 2016-2.1%
Q4 2015+4.8%
Q3 2015-0.0%
Q2 2015-0.8%
Q1 2015+1.5%
Q4 2014-1.6%
Q3 2013+5.6%
Q3 2014+5.6%
Q2 2013-1.9%
Q2 2014-1.9%
Q1 2013+4.8%
Q4 2012+4.8%
Q1 2014+4.8%
Q4 2013+2.8%

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