NYSE$AGO

Assured Guaranty Ltd. · Q3 2022 earnings

Q3 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Assured Guaranty reported strong new business production and adjusted operating income, while GAAP net income was impacted by foreign exchange remeasurement and fair value adjustments.

Assured Guaranty reported a net income of $11 million, or $0.18 per share, for Q3 2022. Adjusted operating income was $133 million, or $2.11 per share. New business production remained strong, with $94 million in gross written premiums and $95 million in PVP.

  • Net income attributable to Assured Guaranty Ltd. was $11 million, or $0.18 per share for third quarter 2022.
  • Adjusted operating income was $133 million, or $2.11 per share, for third quarter 2022.
  • Capital returned to shareholders in third quarter 2022 was $113 million.
  • Gross written premiums were $94 million for third quarter 2022.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$41M

Previous: $212M-80.7%
EPS (adj)

$2.11

Previous: $0.45+368.9%
Gross written premiums

$94M

Previous: $106M-11.3%
Capital returned

$113M

Previous: $156M-27.6%
Free Cash Flow

$11M

Previous: $17M-35.3%
Net Income

$11M

Previous: $17M-35.3%
Operating Income

-$67M

Previous: $109M-161.5%
Gross Profit

-$30M

Previous: $147M-120.4%
Cash & Equivalents

$131M

Previous: $101M+29.7%
Total Assets

$16.7B

Previous: $17.6B-5.4%

Revenue & EPS history

Assured Guaranty · Revenue · Quarterly

$41M

Q3 2022-80.7%vs Q3 2021
Beat estimate in 11 of 16 quarters(69%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Assured Guaranty · $168M total across 2 segments · Q3 2022

  • Insurance segment
    $147M-22.6%
  • Asset management AOI
    $21M+10.5%

Forward guidance

Any forward-looking statements made in this press release reflect the Company’s current views with respect to future events and financial performance and are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2022

Historical avgQ3 2022

+0.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.4%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.1%

Avg return

30 days after

52%

36 / 69 earnings

Positive

+12.3%

Q4 2021

Best reaction

-14.0%

Q2 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q4 2025-0.6%-0.2%
Q1 2026-8.9%-8.9%-8.4%
Q3 2025+6.6%+7.4%+8.7%
Q2 2025+0.0%+0.8%+0.0%
Q1 2025-1.3%-2.4%-3.4%
Q4 2024-5.3%-13.1%+2.4%
Q3 2024+4.4%+4.0%+3.0%
Q2 2024-3.3%-3.1%+1.2%
Q1 2024+3.9%+0.3%-1.8%
Q4 2023+10.9%+7.1%+1.8%
Q3 2023+0.7%-0.4%+4.4%
Q2 2023-3.1%-4.1%-4.9%
Q1 2023-0.3%-0.5%+1.9%
Q4 2022-5.8%+4.6%+2.3%
Q3 2022+1.5%+2.5%+7.8%
Q2 2022-14.0%-11.4%-11.2%
Q1 2022-2.3%-6.1%-2.3%
Q4 2021+12.3%-0.9%-15.1%
Q3 2021-1.8%-3.7%-15.6%
Q2 2021+2.5%+3.6%+0.0%
Q1 2021-5.3%-9.2%-7.8%
Q4 2020+0.5%-0.0%+0.7%
Q3 2020+0.8%+16.5%+17.7%
Q2 2020+10.2%+10.1%-0.7%
Q1 2020+2.0%-8.3%+3.9%
Q4 2019-5.3%+27.6%+50.2%
Q3 2019-0.3%-0.1%+2.3%
Q2 2019+6.3%+5.2%+1.5%
Q1 2019-3.5%-7.7%-7.4%
Q4 2018+5.5%+5.8%+7.5%
Q3 2018+0.6%-2.3%-5.0%
Q2 2018-0.4%+1.3%+4.7%
Q1 2018+1.6%-1.6%+1.1%
Q4 2017-3.3%-8.5%-7.9%
Q3 2017+0.2%-2.6%-2.7%
Q2 2017-0.5%-2.0%-5.8%
Q1 2017+3.3%+3.5%+4.1%
Q4 2016+2.3%-0.7%-11.0%
Q3 2016+7.2%+10.0%+23.2%
Q2 2016+2.7%+4.2%+4.3%
Q1 2016+2.0%
Q4 2015+1.7%
Q3 2015+5.3%
Q2 2015+3.5%
Q1 2015+4.8%
Q4 2014-1.1%
Q3 2014+5.0%
Q2 2014+2.9%
Q1 2014+8.9%
Q4 2013+2.0%
Q3 2013+7.5%
Q2 2013+4.0%
Q1 2013+3.8%
Q4 2012+1.9%
Q3 2012+1.4%
Q2 2012+11.5%
Q1 2012-0.4%
Q2 2009-0.6%
Q4 2011-0.6%
Q3 2011-10.8%
Q2 2011-4.1%
Q1 2010-4.5%
Q1 2011-0.8%
Q4 2009-4.4%
Q4 2008-4.4%
Q4 2010-4.4%
Q3 2009-3.5%
Q3 2010-3.5%
Q2 2010-2.3%

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