NYSE$AGO

Assured Guaranty Ltd. · Q1 2023 earnings

Q1 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Assured Guaranty's diversified financial guaranty strategy led to impressive new business production.

Assured Guaranty reported a net income attributable to Assured Guaranty Ltd. of $81 million, or $1.34 per share, for the first quarter of 2023. Adjusted operating income was $68 million, or $1.12 per share, for the same period. Gross written premiums were $86 million, a 23% increase from the first quarter of 2022.

  • Net income attributable to Assured Guaranty Ltd. was $81 million, or $1.34 per share, for first quarter 2023.
  • Adjusted operating income was $68 million, or $1.12 per share, for first quarter 2023.
  • Gross written premium of $86 million was 23% higher than in the first quarter of 2022.
  • Closed $112 million of PVP in the quarter, up 62% from first quarter 2022.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$283M

Previous: $300M-5.7%
EPS (adj)

$1.12

Previous: $1.34-16.4%
Gross written premiums

$86M

Previous: $70M+22.9%
Free Cash Flow

$81M

Previous: $66M+22.7%
Net Income

$81M

Previous: $66M+22.7%
Operating Income

$221M

Previous: $197M+12.2%
Gross Profit

$276M

Previous: $239M+15.5%
Cash & Equivalents

$118M

Previous: $119M-0.8%
Total Assets

$16.8B

Previous: $17.8B-6.0%

Revenue & EPS history

Assured Guaranty · Revenue · Quarterly

$283M

Q1 2023-5.7%vs Q1 2022
Beat estimate in 11 of 16 quarters(69%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Assured Guaranty · $231M total across 2 segments · Q1 2023

  • Insurance segment
    $190M-31.7%
  • Asset management AOI
    $41M+5.1%

Forward guidance

On April 5, 2023, Assured Guaranty entered into a transaction agreement (Transaction Agreement) pursuant to which it agreed to contribute to Sound Point Capital Management, LP (Sound Point) most of its asset management business

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2023

Historical avgQ1 2023

+0.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.4%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.1%

Avg return

30 days after

52%

36 / 69 earnings

Positive

+12.3%

Q4 2021

Best reaction

-14.0%

Q2 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q4 2025-0.6%-0.2%
Q1 2026-8.9%-8.9%-8.4%
Q3 2025+6.6%+7.4%+8.7%
Q2 2025+0.0%+0.8%+0.0%
Q1 2025-1.3%-2.4%-3.4%
Q4 2024-5.3%-13.1%+2.4%
Q3 2024+4.4%+4.0%+3.0%
Q2 2024-3.3%-3.1%+1.2%
Q1 2024+3.9%+0.3%-1.8%
Q4 2023+10.9%+7.1%+1.8%
Q3 2023+0.7%-0.4%+4.4%
Q2 2023-3.1%-4.1%-4.9%
Q1 2023-0.3%-0.5%+1.9%
Q4 2022-5.8%+4.6%+2.3%
Q3 2022+1.5%+2.5%+7.8%
Q2 2022-14.0%-11.4%-11.2%
Q1 2022-2.3%-6.1%-2.3%
Q4 2021+12.3%-0.9%-15.1%
Q3 2021-1.8%-3.7%-15.6%
Q2 2021+2.5%+3.6%+0.0%
Q1 2021-5.3%-9.2%-7.8%
Q4 2020+0.5%-0.0%+0.7%
Q3 2020+0.8%+16.5%+17.7%
Q2 2020+10.2%+10.1%-0.7%
Q1 2020+2.0%-8.3%+3.9%
Q4 2019-5.3%+27.6%+50.2%
Q3 2019-0.3%-0.1%+2.3%
Q2 2019+6.3%+5.2%+1.5%
Q1 2019-3.5%-7.7%-7.4%
Q4 2018+5.5%+5.8%+7.5%
Q3 2018+0.6%-2.3%-5.0%
Q2 2018-0.4%+1.3%+4.7%
Q1 2018+1.6%-1.6%+1.1%
Q4 2017-3.3%-8.5%-7.9%
Q3 2017+0.2%-2.6%-2.7%
Q2 2017-0.5%-2.0%-5.8%
Q1 2017+3.3%+3.5%+4.1%
Q4 2016+2.3%-0.7%-11.0%
Q3 2016+7.2%+10.0%+23.2%
Q2 2016+2.7%+4.2%+4.3%
Q1 2016+2.0%
Q4 2015+1.7%
Q3 2015+5.3%
Q2 2015+3.5%
Q1 2015+4.8%
Q4 2014-1.1%
Q3 2014+5.0%
Q2 2014+2.9%
Q1 2014+8.9%
Q4 2013+2.0%
Q3 2013+7.5%
Q2 2013+4.0%
Q1 2013+3.8%
Q4 2012+1.9%
Q3 2012+1.4%
Q2 2012+11.5%
Q1 2012-0.4%
Q2 2009-0.6%
Q4 2011-0.6%
Q3 2011-10.8%
Q2 2011-4.1%
Q1 2010-4.5%
Q1 2011-0.8%
Q4 2009-4.4%
Q4 2008-4.4%
Q4 2010-4.4%
Q3 2009-3.5%
Q3 2010-3.5%
Q2 2010-2.3%

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