NYSE$AGO

Assured Guaranty Ltd. · Q2 2020 earnings

Q2 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Assured Guaranty achieved strong results in Q2 2020, driven by new insurance business and capital management.

Assured Guaranty Ltd. reported a net income of $183 million, or $2.10 per share, for the second quarter of 2020. The company achieved its strongest second-quarter result for direct new insurance business production since the acquisition of AGM in July 2009. Total capital returned to shareholders was $181 million, including share repurchases of $164 million.

  • Net income attributable to Assured Guaranty Ltd. was $183 million, or $2.10 per share for second quarter 2020.
  • Shareholders’ equity attributable to Assured Guaranty Ltd. per share reached a new record of $76.66 as of June 30, 2020.
  • Adjusted operating income was $119 million, or $1.36 per share, for second quarter 2020.
  • Total capital returned to shareholders was $181 million, including share repurchases of $164 million in second quarter 2020.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$372M

Previous: $266M+39.8%
EPS (adj)

$1.36

Previous: $1.38-1.4%
Gross written premiums

$149M

No prior period
Capital returned

$181M

No prior period
Free Cash Flow

$183M

Previous: $142M+28.9%
Net Income

$183M

Previous: $142M+28.9%
Operating Income

$289M

Previous: $203M+42.4%
Gross Profit

$331M

Previous: $263M+25.9%
Cash & Equivalents

$293M

Previous: $190M+54.2%
Total Assets

$14.8B

Previous: $13.6B+8.8%

Revenue & EPS history

Assured Guaranty · Revenue · Quarterly

$372M

Q2 2020+39.8%vs Q2 2019
Beat estimate in 11 of 16 quarters(69%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Assured Guaranty · $259M total across 2 segments · Q2 2020

  • Insurance segment
    $246M
  • Asset management AOI
    $13M

Forward guidance

Company is well positioned to withstand the potential financial stress that could result from the pandemic, based on our low insured leverage, granular and diversified insured portfolio, strong liquidity position and significant excess capital.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q2 2020

Historical avgQ2 2020

+0.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.4%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.1%

Avg return

30 days after

52%

36 / 69 earnings

Positive

+12.3%

Q4 2021

Best reaction

-14.0%

Q2 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q4 2025-0.6%-0.2%
Q1 2026-8.9%-8.9%-8.4%
Q3 2025+6.6%+7.4%+8.7%
Q2 2025+0.0%+0.8%+0.0%
Q1 2025-1.3%-2.4%-3.4%
Q4 2024-5.3%-13.1%+2.4%
Q3 2024+4.4%+4.0%+3.0%
Q2 2024-3.3%-3.1%+1.2%
Q1 2024+3.9%+0.3%-1.8%
Q4 2023+10.9%+7.1%+1.8%
Q3 2023+0.7%-0.4%+4.4%
Q2 2023-3.1%-4.1%-4.9%
Q1 2023-0.3%-0.5%+1.9%
Q4 2022-5.8%+4.6%+2.3%
Q3 2022+1.5%+2.5%+7.8%
Q2 2022-14.0%-11.4%-11.2%
Q1 2022-2.3%-6.1%-2.3%
Q4 2021+12.3%-0.9%-15.1%
Q3 2021-1.8%-3.7%-15.6%
Q2 2021+2.5%+3.6%+0.0%
Q1 2021-5.3%-9.2%-7.8%
Q4 2020+0.5%-0.0%+0.7%
Q3 2020+0.8%+16.5%+17.7%
Q2 2020+10.2%+10.1%-0.7%
Q1 2020+2.0%-8.3%+3.9%
Q4 2019-5.3%+27.6%+50.2%
Q3 2019-0.3%-0.1%+2.3%
Q2 2019+6.3%+5.2%+1.5%
Q1 2019-3.5%-7.7%-7.4%
Q4 2018+5.5%+5.8%+7.5%
Q3 2018+0.6%-2.3%-5.0%
Q2 2018-0.4%+1.3%+4.7%
Q1 2018+1.6%-1.6%+1.1%
Q4 2017-3.3%-8.5%-7.9%
Q3 2017+0.2%-2.6%-2.7%
Q2 2017-0.5%-2.0%-5.8%
Q1 2017+3.3%+3.5%+4.1%
Q4 2016+2.3%-0.7%-11.0%
Q3 2016+7.2%+10.0%+23.2%
Q2 2016+2.7%+4.2%+4.3%
Q1 2016+2.0%
Q4 2015+1.7%
Q3 2015+5.3%
Q2 2015+3.5%
Q1 2015+4.8%
Q4 2014-1.1%
Q3 2014+5.0%
Q2 2014+2.9%
Q1 2014+8.9%
Q4 2013+2.0%
Q3 2013+7.5%
Q2 2013+4.0%
Q1 2013+3.8%
Q4 2012+1.9%
Q3 2012+1.4%
Q2 2012+11.5%
Q1 2012-0.4%
Q2 2009-0.6%
Q4 2011-0.6%
Q3 2011-10.8%
Q2 2011-4.1%
Q1 2010-4.5%
Q1 2011-0.8%
Q4 2009-4.4%
Q4 2008-4.4%
Q4 2010-4.4%
Q3 2009-3.5%
Q3 2010-3.5%
Q2 2010-2.3%

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