NYSE$AGO

Assured Guaranty Ltd. · Q1 2020 earnings

Q1 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Financial results were announced for the three-month period ended March 31, 2020.

Assured Guaranty Ltd. reported a net loss of $55 million, or $0.59 per share, for the first quarter of 2020. Adjusted operating income was $33 million, or $0.36 per share. Total capital returned to shareholders was $136 million, including share repurchases of $116 million.

  • Net loss attributable to Assured Guaranty Ltd. was $55 million, or $0.59 per share, for first quarter 2020.
  • Shareholders’ equity attributable to Assured Guaranty Ltd. per share was $69.35 as of March 31, 2020.
  • Adjusted operating income was $33 million, or $0.36 per share, for first quarter 2020.
  • Total capital returned to shareholders was $136 million, including share repurchases of $116 million, or 3.6 million shares, in first quarter 2020.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$96M

Previous: $195M-50.8%
EPS (adj)

$0.36

Previous: $0.82-56.1%
Gross written premiums

$64M

No prior period
Free Cash Flow

-$55M

Previous: $54M-201.9%
Net Income

-$55M

Previous: $54M-201.9%
Operating Income

$28M

Previous: $79M-64.6%
Gross Profit

$73M

Previous: $143M-49.0%
Cash & Equivalents

$139M

Previous: $123M+13.0%
Total Assets

$13.7B

Previous: $13.6B+1.4%

Revenue & EPS history

Assured Guaranty · Revenue · Quarterly

$96M

Q1 2020-50.8%vs Q1 2019
Beat estimate in 12 of 16 quarters(75%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Assured Guaranty · $213M total across 2 segments · Q1 2020

  • Insurance segment
    $196M
  • Asset management AOI
    $17M

Forward guidance

As in the past, the Company's execution of its capital management strategy is contingent upon its available free cash and the capital position of the parent company, market conditions, the maintenance of its strong financial strength ratings and other factors, some of which factors may be impacted by the direct and indirect consequences of the course and duration of the COVID-19 pandemic and evolving governmental and private responses to the pandemic.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2020

Historical avgQ1 2020

+0.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.4%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.1%

Avg return

30 days after

52%

36 / 69 earnings

Positive

+12.3%

Q4 2021

Best reaction

-14.0%

Q2 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q4 2025-0.6%-0.2%
Q1 2026-8.9%-8.9%-8.4%
Q3 2025+6.6%+7.4%+8.7%
Q2 2025+0.0%+0.8%+0.0%
Q1 2025-1.3%-2.4%-3.4%
Q4 2024-5.3%-13.1%+2.4%
Q3 2024+4.4%+4.0%+3.0%
Q2 2024-3.3%-3.1%+1.2%
Q1 2024+3.9%+0.3%-1.8%
Q4 2023+10.9%+7.1%+1.8%
Q3 2023+0.7%-0.4%+4.4%
Q2 2023-3.1%-4.1%-4.9%
Q1 2023-0.3%-0.5%+1.9%
Q4 2022-5.8%+4.6%+2.3%
Q3 2022+1.5%+2.5%+7.8%
Q2 2022-14.0%-11.4%-11.2%
Q1 2022-2.3%-6.1%-2.3%
Q4 2021+12.3%-0.9%-15.1%
Q3 2021-1.8%-3.7%-15.6%
Q2 2021+2.5%+3.6%+0.0%
Q1 2021-5.3%-9.2%-7.8%
Q4 2020+0.5%-0.0%+0.7%
Q3 2020+0.8%+16.5%+17.7%
Q2 2020+10.2%+10.1%-0.7%
Q1 2020+2.0%-8.3%+3.9%
Q4 2019-5.3%+27.6%+50.2%
Q3 2019-0.3%-0.1%+2.3%
Q2 2019+6.3%+5.2%+1.5%
Q1 2019-3.5%-7.7%-7.4%
Q4 2018+5.5%+5.8%+7.5%
Q3 2018+0.6%-2.3%-5.0%
Q2 2018-0.4%+1.3%+4.7%
Q1 2018+1.6%-1.6%+1.1%
Q4 2017-3.3%-8.5%-7.9%
Q3 2017+0.2%-2.6%-2.7%
Q2 2017-0.5%-2.0%-5.8%
Q1 2017+3.3%+3.5%+4.1%
Q4 2016+2.3%-0.7%-11.0%
Q3 2016+7.2%+10.0%+23.2%
Q2 2016+2.7%+4.2%+4.3%
Q1 2016+2.0%
Q4 2015+1.7%
Q3 2015+5.3%
Q2 2015+3.5%
Q1 2015+4.8%
Q4 2014-1.1%
Q3 2014+5.0%
Q2 2014+2.9%
Q1 2014+8.9%
Q4 2013+2.0%
Q3 2013+7.5%
Q2 2013+4.0%
Q1 2013+3.8%
Q4 2012+1.9%
Q3 2012+1.4%
Q2 2012+11.5%
Q1 2012-0.4%
Q2 2009-0.6%
Q4 2011-0.6%
Q3 2011-10.8%
Q2 2011-4.1%
Q1 2010-4.5%
Q1 2011-0.8%
Q4 2009-4.4%
Q4 2008-4.4%
Q4 2010-4.4%
Q3 2009-3.5%
Q3 2010-3.5%
Q2 2010-2.3%

Discussion

Share your read of this quarter. Sign-in carries your eToro identity.

Join the conversation

Sign in with eToro to post your read of this quarter and vote on others'.

Sign in with eToro