NYSE$AGL

agilon health inc. · Q4 2024 earnings

Q4 2024 earnings · · After market close · Investor relations

Briefing

agilon health reported its fourth quarter and full year fiscal 2024 results, with significant revenue growth and increased Medicare Advantage membership.

agilon health reported a strong fourth quarter in 2024, with total revenue increasing by 44% to $1.52 billion and Medicare Advantage membership growing by 36% to 527,000. Despite continued elevated medical cost trends, the company saw an improvement in gross profit and a reduced net loss compared to the previous year.

  • Total revenue for Q4 2024 increased by 44% to $1.52 billion compared to Q4 2023.
  • Medicare Advantage membership grew by 36% year-over-year, reaching 527,000 members.
  • Gross profit improved to negative $38 million in Q4 2024 from negative $95 million in Q4 2023.
  • Net loss decreased to $106 million in Q4 2024 from $230 million in Q4 2023.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.52B

Previous: $1.06B+44.2%
EPS (adj)

-$0.26

Previous: -$0.41+36.6%
Medicare Advantage Members

527.0K

No prior period
ACO Model Members

132.0K

No prior period
Total Members

659.0K

No prior period
Avg. MA Members

527.0K

No prior period
Medical Margin

$566K

No prior period
Adjusted EBITDA

-$84M

No prior period
Geography Entry Costs

$11M

No prior period
Net Income

-$106M

Previous: -$230M+53.8%
Operating Income

-$108M

Previous: -$164M+34.2%
Gross Profit

-$38.3M

Previous: -$94.9M+59.7%

Revenue & EPS history

agilon health · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.52B

Q4 2024+44.2%vs Q4 2023
Beat estimate in 10 of 14 quarters(71%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

agilon health · $1.15B total across 2 segments · Q2 2023

  • Medical Services Revenue
    $1.15B+71.4%
  • Other Operating Revenue
    $2.01M+111.4%

Forward guidance

For the full year 2025, agilon health expects total revenues between $5.825 billion and $6.025 billion, with Medicare Advantage members projected to be between 490,000 and 520,000. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be a loss between $95 million and $55 million.

Tailwinds

  • Class of 2025 expected to add approximately 20,000 Medicare Advantage members.
  • Benefits from clinical and operating programs, including improved physician onboarding and quality performance.
  • Part D exposure reduced to less than 30% of membership, partially offsetting Inflation Reduction Act impact.
  • G&A including network support costs expected to remain essentially flat year-over-year.
  • Strategic actions taken to reduce underwriting risks and improve platform capabilities.

Headwinds

  • Market partnership and payer contract exits of approximately 54,000 members.
  • Elevated medical cost trend experienced in 2024 will continue in 2025, with an estimated gross cost trend of 6.3% and 5.3% net for year 2+ markets.
  • Geography entry costs of $35-40 million reflect the company's measured growth strategy in an elevated cost environment.
  • The company has not reconciled guidance for medical margin or adjusted EBITDA to net income (loss) due to uncertainty around certain items.
  • Continued challenging Medicare Advantage environment.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2024

Historical avgQ4 2024

-2.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.0%

Avg return

5 days after

+6.7%

Avg return

30 days after

50%

10 / 20 earnings

Positive

+20.2%

Q4 2025

Best reaction

-36.1%

Q3 2024

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+4.2%+122.0%+256.9%
Q4 2025+20.2%+13.4%-20.8%
Q3 2025+5.1%-9.0%-9.9%
Q1 2025-25.6%-33.4%-51.6%
Q4 2024-7.4%-17.9%+23.7%
Q3 2024-36.1%-35.1%-24.7%
Q2 2024-12.7%-14.6%-36.8%
Q1 2024+7.5%+7.5%+40.8%
Q4 2023+3.1%-2.1%-1.1%
Q3 2023-13.1%-19.0%-33.1%
Q2 2023+0.7%+3.7%-7.9%
Q1 2023-3.4%-6.6%-18.9%
Q4 2022+15.4%+14.8%+12.0%
Q3 2022-12.7%-7.9%-8.6%
Q2 2022-3.3%-0.4%-20.3%
Q1 2022-8.6%-19.4%+1.3%
Q4 2021+10.6%+2.4%+31.7%
Q3 2021+2.7%+3.6%-9.5%
Q2 2021-3.8%-6.3%-3.4%
Q1 2021+6.3%+4.0%+14.0%
Q4 2020
Q3 2020
Q2 2020
Q1 2020
Q4 2019

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