NYSE$AGL
agilon health inc. · Q4 2024 earnings
Q4 2024 earnings · · After market close · Investor relations
Briefing
agilon health reported its fourth quarter and full year fiscal 2024 results, with significant revenue growth and increased Medicare Advantage membership.
agilon health reported a strong fourth quarter in 2024, with total revenue increasing by 44% to $1.52 billion and Medicare Advantage membership growing by 36% to 527,000. Despite continued elevated medical cost trends, the company saw an improvement in gross profit and a reduced net loss compared to the previous year.
- Total revenue for Q4 2024 increased by 44% to $1.52 billion compared to Q4 2023.
- Medicare Advantage membership grew by 36% year-over-year, reaching 527,000 members.
- Gross profit improved to negative $38 million in Q4 2024 from negative $95 million in Q4 2023.
- Net loss decreased to $106 million in Q4 2024 from $230 million in Q4 2023.
Headline financials
Revenue & EPS history
agilon health · Revenue · Quarterly
$1.52B
Revenue by segment
agilon health · $1.15B total across 2 segments · Q2 2023
- Medical Services Revenue$1.15B+71.4%99.8%
- Other Operating Revenue$2.01M+111.4%0.2%
Forward guidance
For the full year 2025, agilon health expects total revenues between $5.825 billion and $6.025 billion, with Medicare Advantage members projected to be between 490,000 and 520,000. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be a loss between $95 million and $55 million.
Tailwinds
- Class of 2025 expected to add approximately 20,000 Medicare Advantage members.
- Benefits from clinical and operating programs, including improved physician onboarding and quality performance.
- Part D exposure reduced to less than 30% of membership, partially offsetting Inflation Reduction Act impact.
- G&A including network support costs expected to remain essentially flat year-over-year.
- Strategic actions taken to reduce underwriting risks and improve platform capabilities.
Headwinds
- Market partnership and payer contract exits of approximately 54,000 members.
- Elevated medical cost trend experienced in 2024 will continue in 2025, with an estimated gross cost trend of 6.3% and 5.3% net for year 2+ markets.
- Geography entry costs of $35-40 million reflect the company's measured growth strategy in an elevated cost environment.
- The company has not reconciled guidance for medical margin or adjusted EBITDA to net income (loss) due to uncertainty around certain items.
- Continued challenging Medicare Advantage environment.
Historical earnings impact
How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.
Avg. return before/after earnings
Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2024
-2.6%
Avg return
Earnings day
-0.0%
Avg return
5 days after
+6.7%
Avg return
30 days after
50%
10 / 20 earnings
Positive
+20.2%
Q4 2025
Best reaction
-36.1%
Q3 2024
Worst reaction
| Quarter | Report date | Reaction (Day 0) | +5 days | +30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | +4.2% | +122.0% | +256.9% | |
| Q4 2025 | +20.2% | +13.4% | -20.8% | |
| Q3 2025 | +5.1% | -9.0% | -9.9% | |
| Q1 2025 | -25.6% | -33.4% | -51.6% | |
| Q4 2024 | -7.4% | -17.9% | +23.7% | |
| Q3 2024 | -36.1% | -35.1% | -24.7% | |
| Q2 2024 | -12.7% | -14.6% | -36.8% | |
| Q1 2024 | +7.5% | +7.5% | +40.8% | |
| Q4 2023 | +3.1% | -2.1% | -1.1% | |
| Q3 2023 | -13.1% | -19.0% | -33.1% | |
| Q2 2023 | +0.7% | +3.7% | -7.9% | |
| Q1 2023 | -3.4% | -6.6% | -18.9% | |
| Q4 2022 | +15.4% | +14.8% | +12.0% | |
| Q3 2022 | -12.7% | -7.9% | -8.6% | |
| Q2 2022 | -3.3% | -0.4% | -20.3% | |
| Q1 2022 | -8.6% | -19.4% | +1.3% | |
| Q4 2021 | +10.6% | +2.4% | +31.7% | |
| Q3 2021 | +2.7% | +3.6% | -9.5% | |
| Q2 2021 | -3.8% | -6.3% | -3.4% | |
| Q1 2021 | +6.3% | +4.0% | +14.0% | |
| Q4 2020 | — | — | — | |
| Q3 2020 | — | — | — | |
| Q2 2020 | — | — | — | |
| Q1 2020 | — | — | — | |
| Q4 2019 | — | — | — |
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