NYSE$AGL

agilon health inc. · Q1 2021 earnings

Q1 2021 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

agilon health reported first quarter results, demonstrating revenue and membership growth.

agilon health's first quarter results showed a 42% increase in total revenue to $413 million and a 35% increase in membership. Including a retroactive group MA contract, revenue growth would have been approximately 50% and membership growth would have been 42%. The company reported a net loss from continuing operations of $14 million and an Adjusted EBITDA of $4 million.

  • Total revenue increased 42% year-over-year to $413 million.
  • Membership increased 35% year-over-year to approximately 165,300.
  • Same geography membership growth increased 8% from 2020 and same geography membership growth of 15% including the retroactive group contract
  • Net loss from continuing operations was $14 million, compared to $8 million in 2020.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$413M

Previous: $291M+41.9%
EPS (adj)

-$0.04

Previous: -$0.04+4.6%
Medicare Advantage Members

165.3K

Previous: 122.4K+35.0%
Avg. MA Members

163.0K

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

-$178K

No prior period
Free Cash Flow

-$15.3M

No prior period
Net Income

-$15.1M

Previous: -$16.1M+6.3%
Operating Income

-$12.1M

Previous: -$5.83M-107.7%
Cash & Equivalents

$105M

No prior period
Total Assets

$574M

No prior period

Revenue & EPS history

agilon health · Revenue · Quarterly

$413M

Q1 2021+41.9%vs Q1 2020
Beat estimate in 11 of 11 quarters(100%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

agilon health · $413M total across 2 segments · Q1 2021

  • Medical Services Revenue
    $412M+42.3%
  • Other Operating Revenue
    $692K-43.9%

Forward guidance

agilon health provided guidance for the second quarter and full fiscal year 2021, including estimates for ending members, total revenues, and Adjusted EBITDA.

Tailwinds

  • Second quarter 2021 total revenue is expected to be between $470 million and $475 million.
  • Full year 2021 total revenue is expected to be between $1.765 billion and $1.780 billion.
  • Second quarter 2021 ending members are expected to be between 175,000 and 177,000.
  • Full year 2021 ending members are expected to be between 182,000 and 184,000.
  • Total revenue outlook for the second quarter 2021 includes an estimated $24 million associated with the group MA contract attributable to the first quarter.

Headwinds

  • Second quarter 2021 Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between $(41) million and $(38) million.
  • Adjusted EBITDA loss reflected in the full year 2021 outlook is expected to be weighted to the back half of the fiscal year.
  • The company has not reconciled guidance for Adjusted EBITDA to net income (loss).
  • The company has not provided forward-looking guidance for net income (loss).
  • The uncertainty around certain items that may impact net income (loss), including stock-based compensation, that are not within our control or cannot be reasonably predicted.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports

Historical avg

-2.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.0%

Avg return

5 days after

+6.7%

Avg return

30 days after

50%

10 / 20 earnings

Positive

+20.2%

Q4 2025

Best reaction

-36.1%

Q3 2024

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+4.2%+122.0%+256.9%
Q4 2025+20.2%+13.4%-20.8%
Q3 2025+5.1%-9.0%-9.9%
Q1 2025-25.6%-33.4%-51.6%
Q4 2024-7.4%-17.9%+23.7%
Q3 2024-36.1%-35.1%-24.7%
Q2 2024-12.7%-14.6%-36.8%
Q1 2024+7.5%+7.5%+40.8%
Q4 2023+3.1%-2.1%-1.1%
Q3 2023-13.1%-19.0%-33.1%
Q2 2023+0.7%+3.7%-7.9%
Q1 2023-3.4%-6.6%-18.9%
Q4 2022+15.4%+14.8%+12.0%
Q3 2022-12.7%-7.9%-8.6%
Q2 2022-3.3%-0.4%-20.3%
Q1 2022-8.6%-19.4%+1.3%
Q4 2021+10.6%+2.4%+31.7%
Q3 2021+2.7%+3.6%-9.5%
Q2 2021-3.8%-6.3%-3.4%
Q1 2021+6.3%+4.0%+14.0%
Q4 2020
Q3 2020
Q2 2020
Q1 2020
Q4 2019

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