NYSE$AGL
agilon health inc. · Q4 2023 earnings
Q4 2023 earnings · · Investor relations
Briefing
agilon health's Q4 2023 results were reported, revealing a significant revenue increase alongside membership growth, but also highlighting challenges with medical costs and profitability.
agilon health reported a 72% increase in revenue to $1.06 billion for Q4 2023. However, the company faced challenges with rising medical costs, leading to a gross profit of negative $95 million and a net loss of $230 million. The company is implementing a targeted action plan to address these issues and expects the Class of 2025 to add at least 60,000 Medicare Advantage members.
- Revenue increased by 72% to $1.06 billion compared to Q4 2022.
- Medicare Advantage membership increased by 68% to 388,400.
- Total members on the agilon platform grew to 477,700.
- Gross profit was negative $95 million, compared to $16 million in Q4 2022.
Headline financials
Revenue & EPS history
agilon health · Revenue · Quarterly
$1.06B
Revenue by segment
agilon health · $1.15B total across 2 segments · Q2 2023
- Medical Services Revenue$1.15B+71.4%99.8%
- Other Operating Revenue$2.01M+111.4%0.2%
Forward guidance
agilon health's updated guidance assumes that the higher medical cost trend from 2023 will continue in 2024. Revised guidance assumes a medical cost trend of approximately 6.6% in 2024 for Year 2+ markets, which is 250 bps above the company’s prior expectation and compares to the 7.0% medical cost trend observed in 2023.
Tailwinds
- Expanding onboarding support for newer primary care physicians (PCPs) in mature markets.
- Refining payor partnerships.
- Improving data visibility and analytics.
- Accelerating operating efficiency.
- Class of 2025 new partners will include at least 5 physician groups with more than 60,000 new Medicare Advantage (MA) members.
Headwinds
- Updated guidance assumes that the higher medical cost trend from 2023 will continue in 2024.
- Revised guidance assumes a medical cost trend of approximately 6.6% in 2024 for Year 2+ markets, which is 250 bps above the company’s prior expectation and compares to the 7.0% medical cost trend observed in 2023.
- Medical Margin of $299 million was approximately $51 million below the midpoint of the company’s guidance of range of $340 million to $360 million provided on January 5, 2024.
- The company estimates approximately $38 million of the lower Medical Margin is from costs and revenue attributable to the fourth quarter and $13 million of the lower Medical Margin is attributable to costs and revenue attributable previous periods.
- First, as the company completed the financial closing process in February, it received updated data including relatively complete claims data from its largest payors, and additional information such as seasonality factors and census data.
Historical earnings impact
How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.
Avg. return before/after earnings
Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2023
-2.6%
Avg return
Earnings day
-0.0%
Avg return
5 days after
+6.7%
Avg return
30 days after
50%
10 / 20 earnings
Positive
+20.2%
Q4 2025
Best reaction
-36.1%
Q3 2024
Worst reaction
| Quarter | Report date | Reaction (Day 0) | +5 days | +30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | +4.2% | +122.0% | +256.9% | |
| Q4 2025 | +20.2% | +13.4% | -20.8% | |
| Q3 2025 | +5.1% | -9.0% | -9.9% | |
| Q1 2025 | -25.6% | -33.4% | -51.6% | |
| Q4 2024 | -7.4% | -17.9% | +23.7% | |
| Q3 2024 | -36.1% | -35.1% | -24.7% | |
| Q2 2024 | -12.7% | -14.6% | -36.8% | |
| Q1 2024 | +7.5% | +7.5% | +40.8% | |
| Q4 2023 | +3.1% | -2.1% | -1.1% | |
| Q3 2023 | -13.1% | -19.0% | -33.1% | |
| Q2 2023 | +0.7% | +3.7% | -7.9% | |
| Q1 2023 | -3.4% | -6.6% | -18.9% | |
| Q4 2022 | +15.4% | +14.8% | +12.0% | |
| Q3 2022 | -12.7% | -7.9% | -8.6% | |
| Q2 2022 | -3.3% | -0.4% | -20.3% | |
| Q1 2022 | -8.6% | -19.4% | +1.3% | |
| Q4 2021 | +10.6% | +2.4% | +31.7% | |
| Q3 2021 | +2.7% | +3.6% | -9.5% | |
| Q2 2021 | -3.8% | -6.3% | -3.4% | |
| Q1 2021 | +6.3% | +4.0% | +14.0% | |
| Q4 2020 | — | — | — | |
| Q3 2020 | — | — | — | |
| Q2 2020 | — | — | — | |
| Q1 2020 | — | — | — | |
| Q4 2019 | — | — | — |
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