NYSE$AGL

agilon health inc. · Q3 2024 earnings

Q3 2024 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

agilon health reported Q3 2024 results, with revenue increasing by 28% and Medicare Advantage membership growing by 37%.

agilon health's Q3 2024 results showed revenue growth of 28% to $1.45 billion and a 37% increase in Medicare Advantage membership to 525,000. However, the quarter was negatively impacted by lower-than-expected risk adjustment, prior year development, and higher medical expenses. The company is taking actions to strengthen execution and manage the challenging Medicare Advantage environment.

  • Total revenue increased 28% year-over-year to $1.45 billion, driven by membership growth in new and existing markets.
  • Medicare Advantage membership increased 37% year-over-year to 525,000 members.
  • Gross profit was negative $64 million, compared to a positive $37 million in Q3 2023.
  • Net loss was $118 million, compared to a net loss of $31 million in the same period last year.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.45B

Previous: $1.22B+19.4%
EPS

-$0.29

Previous: -$0.08-262.5%
Medicare Advantage Members

525.0K

Previous: 420.3K+24.9%
ACO Model Members

132.0K

No prior period
Total Members

657.0K

Previous: 508.0K+29.3%
Avg. MA Members

535.0K

Previous: 425.1K+25.9%
Medical Margin

-$58.3M

No prior period
Adjusted EBITDA

-$96.5M

No prior period
Geography Entry Costs

$7M

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

-$9.99M

Previous: -$11.9M+16.1%
Free Cash Flow

-$128M

Previous: -$43.3M-194.5%
Net Income

-$118M

Previous: -$31.4M-274.1%
Operating Income

-$134M

Previous: -$49M-172.6%
Cash & Equivalents

$148M

Previous: $168M-12.0%
Total Assets

$2.09B

Previous: $2.28B-8.2%

Revenue & EPS history

agilon health · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.45B

Q3 2024+19.4%vs Q3 2023
Beat estimate in 10 of 14 quarters(71%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

agilon health · $1.15B total across 2 segments · Q2 2023

  • Medical Services Revenue
    $1.15B+71.4%
  • Other Operating Revenue
    $2.01M+111.4%

Forward guidance

Guidance below includes results from the third quarter 2024 and updated cost trends for the fourth quarter 2024. Medical margin guidance below includes approximately $100 million of negative prior period development. Guidance for fiscal year 2024 does not reflect the impact of actions the Company is currently undertaking or plans to take before the close of the fiscal year.

Tailwinds

  • Medicare Advantage Members between 526,000 and 528,000
  • ACO Model Members between 127,000 and 129,000
  • Total Members Live on Platform between 653,000 and 657,000
  • Average Medicare Advantage Members between 526,000 and 527,000
  • Total Revenues between $1,512 million and $1,527 million

Headwinds

  • Medical Margin between $5 million and $35 million
  • Adjusted EBITDA between -$85 million and -$65 million
  • Geography Entry Costs between $14 million and $10 million
  • Third quarter results were affected by lower-than-expected 2024 risk adjustment.
  • Third quarter results were affected by negative prior year development mainly from risk adjustment and Part D.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2024

Historical avgQ3 2024

-2.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.0%

Avg return

5 days after

+6.7%

Avg return

30 days after

50%

10 / 20 earnings

Positive

+20.2%

Q4 2025

Best reaction

-36.1%

Q3 2024

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+4.2%+122.0%+256.9%
Q4 2025+20.2%+13.4%-20.8%
Q3 2025+5.1%-9.0%-9.9%
Q1 2025-25.6%-33.4%-51.6%
Q4 2024-7.4%-17.9%+23.7%
Q3 2024-36.1%-35.1%-24.7%
Q2 2024-12.7%-14.6%-36.8%
Q1 2024+7.5%+7.5%+40.8%
Q4 2023+3.1%-2.1%-1.1%
Q3 2023-13.1%-19.0%-33.1%
Q2 2023+0.7%+3.7%-7.9%
Q1 2023-3.4%-6.6%-18.9%
Q4 2022+15.4%+14.8%+12.0%
Q3 2022-12.7%-7.9%-8.6%
Q2 2022-3.3%-0.4%-20.3%
Q1 2022-8.6%-19.4%+1.3%
Q4 2021+10.6%+2.4%+31.7%
Q3 2021+2.7%+3.6%-9.5%
Q2 2021-3.8%-6.3%-3.4%
Q1 2021+6.3%+4.0%+14.0%
Q4 2020
Q3 2020
Q2 2020
Q1 2020
Q4 2019

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