NYSE$AGL

agilon health inc. · Q4 2022 earnings

Q4 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

agilon health reported Q4 2022 earnings with revenue increasing by 49% and Medicare Advantage membership increasing by 45%.

agilon health's Q4 2022 results showed strong growth with a 49% increase in revenue to $690 million and a 45% increase in Medicare Advantage membership to 269,500. The medical margin also saw a significant increase of 93% to $61 million.

  • Total revenue increased 49% to $690 million compared to Q4 2021.
  • Medicare Advantage membership increased 45% year-over-year.
  • Medical margin increased 93% to $61 million compared to Q4 2021.
  • Net loss was $57 million, consistent with Q4 2021.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$690M

Previous: $463M+49.0%
EPS (adj)

-$0.14

Previous: -$0.14+0.0%
Medicare Advantage Members

269.5K

Previous: 186.3K+44.7%
Avg. MA Members

272.0K

Previous: 186.2K+46.1%
Net Income

-$56.5M

Previous: -$57M+0.8%
Operating Income

-$69.1M

Previous: -$47.9M-44.4%
Cash & Equivalents

$497M

Previous: $1.04B-52.2%
Total Assets

$1.7B

Previous: $1.59B+7.0%

Revenue & EPS history

agilon health · Revenue · Quarterly

$690M

Q4 2022+49%vs Q4 2021
Beat estimate in 10 of 14 quarters(71%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

agilon health · $690M total across 2 segments · Q4 2022

  • Medical Services Revenue
    $689M+49.1%
  • Other Operating Revenue
    $919K+3.6%

Forward guidance

Agilon health provided guidance for the first quarter and full year 2023, including expectations for Medicare Advantage members, ACO REACH members, total members live on platform, total revenues, medical margin, and Adjusted EBITDA.

Tailwinds

  • Medicare Advantage Members are expected to be between 385,000 and 390,000 for Q1 2023 and between 400,000 and 410,000 for FY 2023.
  • Total revenues are expected to be between $1,070 million and $1,090 million for Q1 2023 and between $4,280 million and $4,370 million for FY 2023.
  • Medical Margin is expected to be between $160 million and $170 million for Q1 2023 and between $535 million and $560 million for FY 2023.
  • Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between $32 million and $37 million for Q1 2023 and between $75 million and $90 million for FY 2023.
  • ACO REACH Members are expected to be between 85,000 and 90,000 for Q1 2023 and FY 2023.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2022

Historical avgQ4 2022

-2.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.0%

Avg return

5 days after

+6.7%

Avg return

30 days after

50%

10 / 20 earnings

Positive

+20.2%

Q4 2025

Best reaction

-36.1%

Q3 2024

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+4.2%+122.0%+256.9%
Q4 2025+20.2%+13.4%-20.8%
Q3 2025+5.1%-9.0%-9.9%
Q1 2025-25.6%-33.4%-51.6%
Q4 2024-7.4%-17.9%+23.7%
Q3 2024-36.1%-35.1%-24.7%
Q2 2024-12.7%-14.6%-36.8%
Q1 2024+7.5%+7.5%+40.8%
Q4 2023+3.1%-2.1%-1.1%
Q3 2023-13.1%-19.0%-33.1%
Q2 2023+0.7%+3.7%-7.9%
Q1 2023-3.4%-6.6%-18.9%
Q4 2022+15.4%+14.8%+12.0%
Q3 2022-12.7%-7.9%-8.6%
Q2 2022-3.3%-0.4%-20.3%
Q1 2022-8.6%-19.4%+1.3%
Q4 2021+10.6%+2.4%+31.7%
Q3 2021+2.7%+3.6%-9.5%
Q2 2021-3.8%-6.3%-3.4%
Q1 2021+6.3%+4.0%+14.0%
Q4 2020
Q3 2020
Q2 2020
Q1 2020
Q4 2019

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